308 axnt20 knhc 070544 twdat

Tropical weather discussion
NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center Miami FL  
105 am EST Sat Nov 07 2009
Tropical weather discussion for North America...Central 
America...Gulf of Mexico...Caribbean Sea...northern sections
of South America...and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast
from the Equator to 32n. The following information is based
on satellite imagery...meteorological analysis...weather 
observations...and radar.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0515 UTC.
...Special features...
Tropical Depression Ida is centered near 16.2n 84.0w at 07/0300 
UTC or about 95 nm ENE of Limon Honduras moving N at 6 kt. 
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained 
wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. See latest NHC 
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/ WMO headers miatcmat1/wtnt21 knhc 
for more details. Ida has re-emerged into the Caribbean waters 
off the coast of Honduras. Scattered moderate/strong convection 
covers the area from 16n-17n between 83w-85w and from 17n-20n 
between 80w-85w. 
...Tropical waves...
Tropical wave is along 34w S of 14n moving W near 15 kt. Wave 
remains within a broad area of deep layered moisture on the 
total precipitable water imagery. Wave is just to the se of an 
upper trough and beneath an upper ridge which drawing moisture 
away from the wave itself. Any convection is associated with the 
ITCZ. 
Tropical wave is along 56w/57w S of 16n moving W near 15 kt. 
Weak low level curvature is observed on satellite imagery and it 
is in an area of slight upper level moisture thus no significant 
deep convection. Scattered showers are from 15n-18n between 
52w-56w.  
...ITCZ...
The ITCZ axis is centered along 8n11w 6n22w 7n34w 6n43w 8n55w. 
Clusters of scattered moderate/isolated strong convection are 
from 4n-7n between 10w-14w and from 2n-10n between 22w-33w. 
...Discussion...
Gulf of Mexico...
a 1027 mb high is centered over eastern North Carolina with a 
surface ridge extending SW and se covering the W Atlc and Gulf 
of Mexico giving most of the Gulf NE to E flow. This flow 
filters into the SW Gulf and Bay of Campeche near a surface 
trough that extends from 18n93w through a 1010 mb low near 
19n95w to 23n96w. The remainder of the Gulf is dominated by an 
upper ridge anchored in the central Caribbean. The surface 
low/trough is supported aloft by an upper level shortwave trough 
with an axis extending from NE Mexico near Tampico to 19n95w. 
The surface features along with diffluence E of the upper level 
trough axis is generating scattered showers and possible 
isolated thunderstorms S of 27n between 88w-97w. Scattered 
showers/ isolated thunderstorms are moving westward within 60 nm 
along the N coast of Cuba E of 88w.  
Caribbean Sea...
the most significant feature for the Caribbean tonight is 
Tropical Depression Ida. The upper levels of the Caribbean are 
dominated by a large upper ridge anchored in the central 
Caribbean near 14n74w and covers the Gulf of Mexico and the W 
Atlc as well. A weak surface trough is analyzed along 77w/78w S 
of 13n to inland over E Panama and is generating scattered 
showers/isolated thunderstorms S of 13n from 73w-79w. The E 
Caribbean is under moderate subsidence and drier air. 
However...isolated low level fast moving showers dots the 
remainder of the Caribbean ushered in on moderate/strong 
easterly tradewinds.
Atlantic Ocean...
a surface ridge controls the W Atlc W of 65w anchored on a 1027 
mb high centered over eastern North Carolina. Scattered showers/ 
isolated thunderstorms are within 60 nm of line from 26n65w into 
the Gulf of Mexico through The Straits of Florida near 24n80w. 
Farther east...a cold front enters the discussion area near 
32n56w extending SW to 26n63w with a surface trough extending 
from 30n58w to 22n60w. Scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms 
are within 120 nm of line from 25n62w to beyond 32n54w. The 
frontal system is supported aloft by an upper level trough N of 
26n W of 52w. The E Atlc is under the influence of a surface 
ridge anchored on a 1034 mb high centered over the Azores. An 
upper level trough is over the E Atlc extending an  axis from 
32n30w into the tropics to 16n51w. Upper level diffluence east 
of the trough axis is generating possible isolated showers N of 
the area associated with the tropical wave along 34w covering 
the area from 16n-26n between 36w-44w.
$$
Wallace







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