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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Thursday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 72 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Friday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 68 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Saturday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 66 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Sunday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 66 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Monday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 63 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas 
1201 am CDT Thursday may 23 2013 


Aviation... 
/06z tafs/ 


Concerns...nocturnal stratus and morning fog. 


Light southeasterly winds will prevail overnight as a surface 
ridge continues moving slowly east of the area. With light 
winds...clear skies...and residual moisture on the ground...some 
light ground fog will be possible again Thursday morning. But 
after a day of considerable evaporation...it should be far less 
extensive than Wednesday morning. The arrival of stratus will also 
reduce the extent of cooling at the surface...and thus the extent 
of the restrictions to visibility. 


Some stratocu 2-4kft above ground level are just upstream of Waco. Expect this 
layer to lower and thicken overnight. Although the surface winds 
will be rather meager...a low level jet will develop tonight in response to 
a frontal system entering the Texas Panhandle. The low level jet will reach 
25-30kts before dawn...sufficient to allow the better moisture 
south of the I-10 corridor to surge northward. The may sun will 
effectively mix out the MVFR deck by middle morning. 


Extended... 
another more extensive stratus intrusion is likely Friday morning. 
Introducing this with the 24-30hr portion of the 06z dfw taf. The 
stratocu will become VFR by late Friday morning...but the ceilings 
may persist much of the day Friday when the moisture will be much 
deeper. 


25 


&& 


Update... 
there are no major changes to the previous forecast. Some patchy 
fog is possible before daybreak...especially across the southern and 
eastern zones. Have adjusted the overnight lows a few degrees 
based on current trends. This resulted in some adjustments to the 
hourly grids as well. Updates have been sent. 


58 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 252 PM CDT Wednesday may 22 2013/ 
dewpoints are recovering today so tonight will be a little 
warmer. Low clouds south of the County Warning Area this afternoon will return 
over the southern half later tonight as a weak boundary moves 
northward. The clouds should break by late morning on Thursday 
while the boundary stalls around I-20. Overall...Thursday will be a 
nice day as highs will be in the middle 80s to lower 90s...skies 
mostly clear and light winds. 


Ridging will build aloft to the west then slide over the Southern 
Plains by Friday. Models have been consistent in developing 
convection over the Texas Panhandle both Thursday and Friday 
afternoon and evening with some of it moving east along an 
elevated front and across parts of our County Warning Area. Our evaluation of 
shortwave lift...forecast soundings and cross section profiles 
indicate that moisture and instability will be at or above 500mb 
(18,000 feet) with drier air below. As a result...feel there could 
be some elevated thunderstorms to enter the County Warning Area from the west- 
northwest...but most of the precipitation will evaporate before 
reaching the ground. If the convection is able to tap moisture 
closer to 850 mb... then a pseudo inverted-v sounding would 
enhance the potential for virga to produce gusty winds at times. 
Ergo...we are not overly excited about rainfall but will carry low 
probability of precipitation for the potential of some of the Panhandle convection moving 
into the County Warning Area on Friday and Saturday. 


Have decided to end the potential for convection on Saturday night 
and keep it dry thought the rest of the forecast. Temperatures 
over the the Memorial Day Holiday weekend will be seasonal. 
Surface winds will increase on Sunday with gusty conditions 
Monday through Wednesday. 75 






&& 




Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 65 88 71 85 69 / 10 10 10 10 10 
Waco, Texas 65 90 70 88 69 / 10 10 10 10 10 
Paris, Texas 61 84 65 81 63 / 10 10 20 10 10 
Denton, Texas 62 87 68 84 67 / 10 10 20 10 10 
McKinney, Texas 63 87 70 84 67 / 10 10 10 10 10 
Dallas, Texas 67 91 73 88 71 / 10 10 10 10 10 
Terrell, Texas 64 90 71 86 68 / 10 10 10 10 10 
Corsicana, Texas 65 91 71 88 69 / 10 10 10 10 10 
Temple, Texas 66 91 70 87 68 / 10 10 10 10 10 
Mineral Wells, Texas 63 91 70 86 68 / 10 10 10 10 20 


&& 


Forward watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 


&& 


$$ 


25/58