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Nowcast

• 

• Now as of 9:39 am CDT on May 24, 2013

  Showers and thunderstorms will continue to increase in areal coverage throughout the day. Brief heavy rainfall and lightning strikes will be the main threats. Widespread severe weather is not expected but a few strong storms could produce hail up to the size of quarters and gusty winds of 40 to 50 mph. Rainfall totals today will range up to a quarter of an inch with some isolated higher amounts. Otherwise...expect mostly cloudy and humid conditions. Temperatures will reach the mid 70s to mid 80s by the early afternoon hours.

Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Friday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 70 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Saturday
• 
• High: 82 °
• Low: 66 °
• Chance of a Thunderstorm

• Sunday
• 
• High: 82 °
• Low: 66 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Monday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 66 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 70 °
• Mostly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas 
635 am CDT Friday may 24 2013 


Aviation... 
nocturnal stratus is having a hard time organizing presumably due 
to the impacts of the mesoscale convective system to the west. Observation are showing MVFR ceilings 
trying to move into the Waco area and will show MVFR there this 
morning. Regardless airmass is moist in the low levels...so with 
heating some MVFR cumulus should develop at all taf sites by 15z 
before lifting to VFR at 18z. 


Convection forecast is difficult to determine at this point. 
Weakness aloft and diurnal heating should promote scattered 
convection across the area today. Will indicate a window of thunderstorms in the vicinity 
from from middle-afternoon to early evening...but confidence is not 
especially high whether airports will experience impacts from 
thunder at this point. 


Tr.92 


&& 




Previous discussion... /issued 257 am CDT Friday may 24 2013/ 
convection over the Edwards Plateau this morning has spun up an 
mesoscale convective vortex...which is forecast to move east-northeast into southwestern North Texas. 
This forcing should kick up more convection as seen in European model (ecmwf) and 
GFS. NAM forecasts new convection in the northern Texas Panhandle this 
morning...but recent radar shows that convection is weakening so 
have disregarded the NAM/S solution of a southeast-moving mesoscale convective system 
moving into western counties. Both solutions are wet for the 
area...just a difference on mechanisms and local precipitation amounts. 


There is also a short wave just off of central Baja California that should 
track east-northeast and move into our area this afternoon or 
evening...adding support to the forecast of convection moving light snow shower 
NE this afternoon/evening. Not all areas will see rain...but cannot 
eliminate any areas given differences in model precipitation 
forecasts so probability of precipitation extend across all of North Texas. 


Will keep lows mainly in the 70s and highs in the middle-upper 80s 
through Sunday due to fairly high cloud cover. Next week moderate 
ridging aloft and decreasing clouds will allow slightly cooler 
mornings and warmer afternoons. GFS/Euro continue to differ on 
precipitation chances late in the week so will not forecast rain in the 
extended. 84 


&& 






Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 85 71 84 70 87 / 30 30 20 20 10 
Waco, Texas 87 71 88 70 89 / 40 30 20 20 5 
Paris, Texas 81 69 84 71 85 / 20 20 20 20 10 
Denton, Texas 83 71 83 70 86 / 30 30 20 20 10 
McKinney, Texas 84 71 85 70 87 / 30 30 20 20 10 
Dallas, Texas 87 71 87 70 89 / 30 30 20 20 10 
Terrell, Texas 86 71 87 70 88 / 20 20 20 20 5 
Corsicana, Texas 87 71 87 71 89 / 30 30 20 20 5 
Temple, Texas 86 72 87 70 88 / 40 30 20 20 5 
Mineral Wells, Texas 85 71 84 69 88 / 40 30 20 20 10 


&& 


Forward watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 


&& 


$$ 


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