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Nowcast

• 

• Now as of 1:19 PM CDT on May 21, 2013

  A line of strong thunderstorms will affect locations northwest of a Bonham...Dallas...hillsoro...to Hamilton line through 3 PM. The storms will most likely produce wind gusts between 40 and 50 mph...heavy rainfall and cloud to ground lightning as they move east northeast at 45 mph. A few storms may briefly become severe and produce wind gusts to 60 mph. Additional storms are expected across North Texas through the afternoon.

Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 64 °
• T-Storms

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 90 °
• Low: 72 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Thursday
• 
• High: 90 °
• Low: 73 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Friday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 73 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Saturday
• 
• High: 91 °
• Low: 72 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas 
1242 PM CDT Tuesday may 21 2013 


Aviation... 
the first 6 hours of this taf package will be the most critical 
with thunderstorms expected to impact all taf sites. The 
thunderstorms will continue to organize along a southward moving 
cold front. The main line of storms should reach the metroplex taf 
sites between 19 and 21z and Waco between 21 and 22z. Although 
isolated severe thunderstorms are possible ahead of the main line 
of storms through the afternoon...coverage will be limited. 
Incoming 18z sounding data shows a small cap still in place. 
However...in a couple of hours that cap should disappear with 
continued heating and increasing large scale lift. Any storm that 
impacts any of the taf sites will have a potential for damaging 
winds and large hail. Storms should end at the metroplex taf sites 
by 00z and Waco by 02z. After storms end...ceilings will lift and 
eventually clear out. 


A south wind will prevail at the start of this package but will 
turn to the north between 18 and 20z at the metroplex sites and 
Waco between 21 and 22z. Wind speeds this afternoon will range 
from 14 to 18 knots sustained with some gusts near 30 knots. Wind 
speeds will slowly decrease this evening and fall below 12 knots 
before 06z. A light southeast wind will return shortly after 
sunrise Wednesday. 


79 


&& 


Update... 
the main tornado threat will be with discrete cells out ahead of 
the squall line this afternoon. The squall line is beginning to 
organize and is moving southeast at 20-25 miles per hour. Extrapolation places 
it along a Sherman to Eastland line around 2 PM and along an Emory 
to Lampasas line by 5 PM. Lead storms along the line could still 
produce tornadoes...but those cells within the line will be more 
likely to produce damaging straight line winds from Bow echoes and 
large hail. 


Have highest probability of precipitation are associated with the line as it moves 
through the region. The convection will exit the southeast 
counties early this evening. Temperatures are already falling 
behind the cold front which has pushed into the northwest 
counties. 75 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 357 am CDT Tuesday may 21 2013/ 
isolated showers continue to pop up across the area early this 
morning...with thunderstorm activity remaining north of the 
region over Oklahoma in the vicinity of a slow moving front. The 
weather should remain relatively quiet in the short term...but the 
ingredients appear to be coming together for a severe weather 
outbreak across North Texas later today. 


Water vapor imagery indicates a shortwave over New Mexico moving 
southeast towards northwest Texas. This feature will continue to 
swing southeast into North Texas later today...providing lift for 
shower and thunderstorm development later this morning and 
through the afternoon. At the surface...an outflow boundary 
appears to be located just south of the Red River. This boundary 
will provide focus for development as lift increases ahead of the 
shortwave. Hi-resolution model data shows development beginning 
over the northern counties around daybreak near the remnant 
boundary. Additional storm development will likely occur along the 
synoptic front as it advances south towards the Red 
River...essentially overtaking the mesoscale boundary later this 
morning. 


Showers and storms should advance slowly southeast along the slow 
moving cold front. Surface heating will allow the atmosphere to 
destabilize middle and late morning ahead of the front and ongoing 
storms. This should lead to the development of strong to severe 
storms around midday. These storms will likely be in the form of 
discrete cells...most likely occurring along the Interstate 20 
corridor including Dallas-Fort Worth and surrounding areas. 
Several of these storms will quickly become severe with large 
hail...damaging winds...and tornadoes all possible during the 
afternoon. With the slow moving surface boundary in place...the 
potential for long-track tornadoes will exist over central and 
eastern portion of the region as indicated by Storm Prediction Center day 1 moderate 
risk area. 


By late afternoon...storms should form into a squall 
line...shifting the main severe threat to damaging winds and hail 
during the evening hours. This line of storms will push east of 
the region tonight as the shortwave trough continues east and 
heads for the MS valley....bringing overall quiet weather to the 
region Wednesday. The synoptic scale cold front will hang up near 
the I-20 corridor today before gradually lifting north of the area 
Wednesday and Wednesday night. 


An upper ridge will build overhead Wednesday through the end of 
the week. Model data continues to hint at storm development 
northwest of the region around the periphery of the ridge...with 
activity propagating southeast towards the area. Will continue 
with low probability of precipitation across the northwestern third of the region during 
the evening and overnight hours Wednesday and Thursday...with 
lingering probability of precipitation north of I-20 Friday morning. The upper ridge is 
prognosticated to intensify this weekend...which would bring Summer-like 
temperatures for Memorial Day. 30 






&& 




Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 82 65 87 68 89 / 70 30 10 10 10 
Waco, Texas 87 67 89 68 89 / 60 40 10 10 10 
Paris, Texas 79 64 85 63 85 / 80 30 10 10 10 
Denton, Texas 80 62 87 65 88 / 80 20 10 20 10 
McKinney, Texas 81 63 87 64 86 / 80 30 10 10 10 
Dallas, Texas 83 66 88 69 90 / 70 30 10 10 10 
Terrell, Texas 84 65 86 65 87 / 80 30 10 10 10 
Corsicana, Texas 87 67 87 68 88 / 80 40 10 10 10 
Temple, Texas 88 68 89 68 88 / 60 50 20 10 10 
Mineral Wells, Texas 81 61 88 65 90 / 80 20 10 20 10 


&& 


Forward watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 


&& 


$$ 


79/