University Park, Texas Weather Conditions

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Current Conditions

  • 93°
  • Mostly Cloudy
  • Wind: North 10 mph
  • Humidity: 46%
  • Visibility: 10.0 miles
  • Dew Point: 70°
  • Pressure: 30.12 in. +
  • Heat Index: 99

Nowcast

  • Now as of 10:57 am CDT on July 28, 2014

    Isolated showers and thunderstorms have developed along a line from Bowie to Gainesville to Sulphur Springs. These storms are moving slowly to the southeast and are capable of producing moderate rain and cloud to ground lightning. Additional development of showers and thunderstorms will be possible north of the cold front...currently positioned near a line from Cisco to Waco to Palestine...through the early afternoon. As the cold front continues to push southward...additional isolated showers and storms are expected to develop south of Interstate 20 later this afternoon. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy north of the cold front and mostly sunny to the south. Temperatures are in the mid 80s and low 90s and will continue to climb into the low to mid 90s this afternoon. Areas experiencing cloud cover and rain showers will see temperatures stay in the 80s.

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Next 12 Hours

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4  pm
7  pm
10  pm
1  am
Chance of a Thunderstorm
Chance of T-storms
Chance of a Thunderstorm
Chance of T-storms
Chance of a Thunderstorm
Chance of T-storms
Chance of a Thunderstorm
Chance of T-storms
Chance of a Thunderstorm
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95°
97°
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84°
Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

  • Monday
  • Chance of a Thunderstorm
  • High: 97 °
  • Low: 73 °
  • Chance of T-Storms
  • Tuesday
  • Chance of a Thunderstorm
  • High: 93 °
  • Low: 73 °
  • Chance of a Thunderstorm
  • Wednesday
  • Chance of a Thunderstorm
  • High: 95 °
  • Low: 72 °
  • Chance of a Thunderstorm
  • Thursday
  • Mostly Cloudy
  • High: 86 °
  • Low: 70 °
  • Mostly Cloudy
  • Friday
  • Partly Cloudy
  • High: 84 °
  • Low: 64 °
  • Partly Cloudy

Forecast for University Park, Texas

Updated: 10:00 AM CDT on July 28, 2014

  • Monday

    Overcast with a chance of a thunderstorm and a chance of rain. High of 97F. Winds from the NE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

  • Monday Night

    Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm and a chance of rain. Low of 73F. Winds from the ENE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

  • Tuesday

    Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm and a chance of rain. High of 93F. Winds from the ESE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

  • Tuesday Night

    Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm and a chance of rain after midnight. Low of 73F. Winds from the SE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

  • Wednesday

    Mostly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm and a chance of rain. High of 95F. Winds from the SSE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

  • Wednesday Night

    Overcast with a chance of a thunderstorm and a chance of rain. Low of 72F. Winds from the ESE at 10 to 15 mph.

  • Thursday

    Overcast. High of 86F. Winds from the ESE at 5 to 10 mph shifting to the NNE in the afternoon.

  • Thursday Night

    Mostly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm and rain in the evening, then overcast. Low of 70F. Winds from the NNE at 5 to 15 mph.

  • Friday

    Partly cloudy. High of 84F. Winds from the NNE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Friday Night

    Partly cloudy. Low of 64F. Winds from the ENE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Saturday

    Partly cloudy. High of 86F. Winds from the NE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Saturday Night

    Partly cloudy. Low of 70F. Winds from the NE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Sunday

    Clear. High of 91F. Winds from the NE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Sunday Night

    Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm. Low of 66F. Winds from the ENE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

  • Monday

    Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm. High of 90F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

  • Monday Night

    Partly cloudy. Low of 68F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Tuesday

    Partly cloudy. High of 90F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Tuesday Night

    Clear. Low of 70F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Wednesday

    Clear. High of 91F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Wednesday Night

    Clear. Low of 72F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Thursday

    Clear. High of 90F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Thursday Night

    Clear. Low of 72F. Winds less than 5 mph.

Personal Weather Stations

Personal Weather Stations [Add your weather station!]

Location: West Highland Park, Dallas, TX

Updated: 1:25 PM CDT

Temperature: 93.4 °F Dew Point: 71 °F Humidity: 49% Wind: ENE at 2.0 mph Pressure: 30.09 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 101 °F Graphs

Location: University Park, Dallas, TX

Updated: 1:15 PM CDT

Temperature: 97.7 °F Dew Point: 73 °F Humidity: 45% Wind: North at 5.3 mph Pressure: 30.10 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: 108 °F Graphs

Location: University Park, Dallas, TX

Updated: 1:26 PM CDT

Temperature: 93.2 °F Dew Point: 73 °F Humidity: 52% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.06 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: 102 °F Graphs

Location: East Dallas, Dallas, TX

Updated: 1:26 PM CDT

Temperature: 95.6 °F Dew Point: 74 °F Humidity: 51% Wind: ENE at 1.0 mph Pressure: 30.05 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 107 °F Graphs

Location: North Hill Estates, Dallas, TX

Updated: 1:25 PM CDT

Temperature: 93.5 °F Dew Point: 71 °F Humidity: 49% Wind: ESE at 1.0 mph Pressure: 30.01 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 101 °F Graphs

Location: Bryan Parkway, Dallas, TX

Updated: 1:26 PM CDT

Temperature: 94.1 °F Dew Point: 69 °F Humidity: 44% Wind: North at 10.2 mph Pressure: 30.04 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 99 °F Graphs

Location: Merriman Park, Dallas, TX

Updated: 1:26 PM CDT

Temperature: 94.2 °F Dew Point: 74 °F Humidity: 53% Wind: ENE at 1.0 mph Pressure: 30.08 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 105 °F Graphs

Location: Lakewood, Dallas, TX

Updated: 1:25 PM CDT

Temperature: 94.0 °F Dew Point: 73 °F Humidity: 51% Wind: NNE at 2.0 mph Pressure: 30.02 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 104 °F Graphs

Location: Corinthian Sailing Club, Whiterock Lake, Dallas, TX

Updated: 1:26 PM CDT

Temperature: 86.0 °F Dew Point: - Humidity: - Wind: NNE at 12.0 mph Pressure: 30.13 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: - Graphs

Location: Enclave at White Rock, Dallas, TX

Updated: 1:26 PM CDT

Temperature: 93.0 °F Dew Point: 71 °F Humidity: 49% Wind: North at 6.0 mph Pressure: 29.71 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 100 °F Graphs

Location: NW Merriman Park, Dallas, TX

Updated: 1:20 PM CDT

Temperature: 93.2 °F Dew Point: 73 °F Humidity: 52% Wind: NE at 3.0 mph Pressure: 29.95 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: 102 °F Graphs

Location: White Rock Valley / Lake Highlands, Dallas, TX

Updated: 1:21 PM CDT

Temperature: 94.8 °F Dew Point: 75 °F Humidity: 52% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.05 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: 106 °F Graphs

Location: The Hockaday School, Dallas, TX

Updated: 1:26 PM CDT

Temperature: 90.4 °F Dew Point: 72 °F Humidity: 54% Wind: ENE at 7.0 mph Pressure: 30.06 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 97 °F Graphs

Location: Dallas, TX

Updated: 1:25 PM CDT

Temperature: 93.7 °F Dew Point: 73 °F Humidity: 51% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.04 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 103 °F Graphs

Location: Lake Highlands, Dallas, TX

Updated: 1:26 PM CDT

Temperature: 94.0 °F Dew Point: 69 °F Humidity: 44% Wind: NNE at 5.0 mph Pressure: 30.00 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 99 °F Graphs

Location: Churchill Way, Dallas, TX

Updated: 1:13 PM CDT

Temperature: 95.4 °F Dew Point: 69 °F Humidity: 43% Wind: ESE at 2.2 mph Pressure: 29.79 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: 101 °F Graphs

Location: White Rock Lake Park Estate, Dallas, TX

Updated: 1:26 PM CDT

Temperature: 94.3 °F Dew Point: 73 °F Humidity: 51% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.07 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 104 °F Graphs

Location: Stevens Park Village, Dallas, TX

Updated: 1:25 PM CDT

Temperature: 99.8 °F Dew Point: 68 °F Humidity: 36% Wind: SE at 1.6 mph Pressure: 29.78 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 106 °F Graphs

Location: South Building Garage 4th Floor, Dallas, TX

Updated: 1:26 PM CDT

Temperature: 92.0 °F Dew Point: 71 °F Humidity: 50% Wind: NNW at 7.0 mph Pressure: 30.08 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 99 °F Graphs

Location: Mariner Sails - I35E, Dallas, TX

Updated: 1:26 PM CDT

Temperature: 95.3 °F Dew Point: 69 °F Humidity: 43% Wind: ESE at 2.5 mph Pressure: 30.28 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 101 °F Graphs

Location: Beltline & Preston Rd-North Dallas, Dallas, TX

Updated: 1:26 PM CDT

Temperature: 94.0 °F Dew Point: 72 °F Humidity: 50% Wind: WNW at 7.4 mph Pressure: 30.10 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 103 °F Graphs

Location: West of Vivian Field, Farmers Branch, TX

Updated: 1:25 PM CDT

Temperature: 93.6 °F Dew Point: 72 °F Humidity: 49% Wind: SW at 4.3 mph Pressure: 30.11 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 101 °F Graphs

Location: OakBrook Parkway, Farmers Branch, TX

Updated: 1:19 PM CDT

Temperature: 96.6 °F Dew Point: 74 °F Humidity: 48% Wind: NNW at 10.9 mph Pressure: 28.57 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: 108 °F Graphs

Location: Northwest Richardson, Richardson, TX

Updated: 1:20 PM CDT

Temperature: 91.0 °F Dew Point: 53 °F Humidity: 28% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.09 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 89 °F Graphs

MSN Maps of:

Temp: Dew Point: Humidity Wind Pressure Hr Precip -

NWS Forecaster Discussion




Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas 
1246 PM CDT Monday Jul 28 2014 


Aviation... 
concerns...possible isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms 
this afternoon. 


Mostly VFR conditions are expected at the taf sites through 00z 
Wednesday. A cold front that extended south of a Brownwood /kbwd/ 
to Waco /kact/ to Palestine /kpsn/ line will sink farther south 
this afternoon before becoming stationary across central Texas 
this evening. Winds to the north of the front through this 
evening will be north to northeast around 10 knots and to the 
south winds will be south to southeast around 10 knots. A complex 
of showers and thunderstorms between Childress /kcds/...Gainesville 
/kgle/ and Woodward Oklahoma /kwwr/ should weaken though 20z. 
Isolated showers between Gainesville /kgle/ and Gilmer /kjxi/ 
should also weaken later this afternoon as the best chances of 
convection shift southward. 


For the metroplex taf sites...have placed vcsh for the 18-22z 
period to account for any isolated showers that may develop. 
Afterward...a slight chance will remain this evening through 
Tuesday but the chances are not high enough to include in the tafs 
at this time. North to northeast winds around 10 knots will become 
easterly by midday Tuesday...and should become southeast Tuesday 
afternoon. 


For Waco...isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are 
expected to develop late afternoon...for now have placed thunderstorms in the vicinity in 
the Waco taf for the 20z-00z period. A slight chance will 
continue tonight and Friday...but once again the chances are not 
high enough to mention in the taf. 






58 


&& 


Update... 
postfrontal mesoscale convective system is holding its own across southwestern Oklahoma 
and adjacent portions of northwest Texas. This activity is 
associated with elevated instability along the frontal slope...in 
the vicinity of the 850mb boundary. Still expect this activity to 
diminish as daytime heating decreases the thermal discontinuity. 


Benign convection developed to the east of the nocturnal 
complex this morning...generally north and northeast of the 
Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex. This activity is near the back edge 
of the best moisture...which should continue slipping south as the 
day progresses. 


The front is now plodding through central Texas. Weak postfrontal 
winds are evidence of minimal advection behind the surface 
boundary...and abundant sunshine north of the front should further 
inhibit its southward progress. With the front hanging up...and 
moisture pooling above the boundary...generally 900-750mb...expect 
the favored area for convective initiation this afternoon will be 
along and south of the I-20 corridor. 


With cape values exceeding 2000j/kg in the most favored areas for 
convective development...and precipitable water values topping 2 inches...strong 
updrafts allowing for significant precipitation loading will be possible. 
The weak shear will result in slow-moving storms capable of very 
heavy rain...but the brief nature of individual cells will likely 
preclude any flooding concerns. With surface dew point depressions 
exceeding 30 degrees behind the front...there will be the 
potential for downburst winds in excess of 40 miles per hour with some of the 
storms...particularly as they collapse. 


25 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 404 am CDT Monday Jul 28 2014/ 


08z surface analysis showed a cold front moving slowly south 
across the Red River. The front was located near a line from 
Lubbock to Bowie to Sherman at the time of analysis. Regional 
radars showed scattered showers and thunderstorms north of the 
front...moving south at 5 to 10 miles per hour. 00z upper air analysis showed 
that upper level ridging once again strengthened over North Texas 
over the last 24 hours. Early morning water vapor satellite imagery 
indicates that the upper level ridge is likely breaking down early 
this morning...and reorganizing west of the County Warning Area. Expect to see 500 
mb height falls of 3 to 4 dm on the 12z forward radiosonde observation this morning with 
the ridge weakening and moving west of the County Warning Area. 


Today...expect that scattered showers and thunderstorms will 
continue to develop north of the slow moving cold front through 
the middle-morning hours of the day today. Expect that the front will 
be located south of the dfw area by this time...so maintained 30 
probability of precipitation for this morning for locations generally along and north of a 
line from Cisco to Athens. 


The front is expected to continue south into central Texas for 
this afternoon. From the middle-morning hours to the middle-afternoon 
hours...there will probably be a lull in thunderstorm activity as 
the best lift for elevated thunderstorms becomes disrupted by 
daytime heating. This is expected to occur as heating promotes 
better low-level mixing...and dry air entrains into the saturated 
layer around 800 to 750 mb where forecast soundings indicate very 
little lift is needed for air to reach its level of free 
convection early this morning. Once the elevated Reservoir of 
thunderstorm initiation is interrupted...new thunderstorm 
development will likely have to wait for the peak heating hours of 
the day for surface based air parcels to be heated up enough for 
air to be lifted above the cap by the weak forcing associated with 
the front. 


Surface based storms appear to be most likely along and just 
north of the surface cold front this afternoon. The frontal 
boundary represents a layer of only shallow cool air...and almost 
all guidance indicates that deeper moisture is available for 
storms north of the front...rather than along or south of the 
front. Either way...the shallow frontal inversion will likely mix 
out leaving only a wind-shift line defining the leading edge of 
the front during the peak heating hours of the day. Models 
consistently show the highest precipitable water values north of the front 
across central Texas this afternoon...so went ahead and bumped 
probability of precipitation up to 40 percent centered along a line from Comanche to Waco 
to Palestine this afternoon. 


Precipitable waters  are forecast to be in the neighborhood of 2 inches...so 
brief heavy rainfall and gusty outflow winds are the primary 
thunderstorm hazards aside from the lightning threat present with 
any thunderstorm activity. 


Despite storms more likely to occur north of the front...as long 
as the shallow frontal inversion mixes out as expected...forecast 
soundings still advertise an inverted-v low-level 
profile...indicative of storms capable of producing microbursts. 
Severe/damaging winds should not be common due to a somewhat 
meager Theta-E difference with height in the atmosphere limiting 
the strength of cold pool accelerations. Regardless...steep low 
level lapse rates will allow for wind gusts in the 40-50 miles per hour 
range...which is strong enough to cause light...localized damage. 


Storm motions are prognosticated to be slow this afternoon...however a 
widespread flooding threat is not expected as storms will still 
produce outflow boundaries that should promote storms to move away 
from any one location with propagation likely dominating storm 
motions. 


Tonight...models are fairly consistent now in advertising 
northeasterly flow bringing cool and dry air into the County Warning Area 
beginning this afternoon...continuing through the overnight hours. 
This should cause any lingering thunderstorm activity east of 
Interstate 35 to diminish fairly quickly after sunset. Models are 
now also consistently showing an 850 mb Theta-E ridge holding up 
over west central Texas...and over the western portion of the County Warning Area 
tonight into tomorrow. This Theta-E ridge may become active again 
overnight...with a similar coverage of storms to what we are 
seeing north of the Red River at the time of this forecast 
discussion. 


Coverage and placement of storms will be determined by the 
orientation of low level flow to the west of this Theta-E ridge. 
If winds become southwesterly to the west of this feature...more 
storms are likely due to enhanced low-level convergence. If winds 
remain southerly...convergence will be shunted more to the 
west...leaving the County Warning Area with lower thunderstorm chances and 
coverage. Just maintained 20-30 probability of precipitation overnight west of Interstate 
35/35w for now without higher confidence in which scenario will 
pan out. East of Interstate 35 should be dry...all guidance 
supports this...so left the forecast dry for these locations. 


Tuesday...model guidance indicates that an 850 mb anti-cyclone 
will move southeast from Oklahoma over towards Louisiana from 
tonight into Tuesday afternoon. This will cause the transport of 
dry cool air in from the northeast to be interrupted as low-level 
flow veers around to the east and eventually southeast by Tuesday 
night. This will allow the low-level Theta-E ridge to build slowly 
eastward from west central Texas back over the County Warning Area Tuesday through 
Tuesday night. During the day on Tuesday...most model guidance 
indicates that the Theta-E ridge will remain west of Interstate 
35/35w so went ahead and kept the highest probability of precipitation over those 
locations as surface based storms are most likely within this area 
during the peak heating hours of the day. The Theta-E ridge is 
expected to advect north overnight and become re-established over 
the northeastern County Warning Area by sunrise Wednesday morning. Overnight 
thunderstorm activity is most likely within this Theta-E 
ridge...so transitioned probability of precipitation to match the model placement of this 
feature overnight. 


The low-level Theta-E ridge is mentioned a lot here because it is 
the easiest way to track our best precipitation chances associated 
with the front stalling out...becoming reoriented and changing in 
characteristics between a cold to stationary to warm front from 
today through Wednesday. Instead of changing the name of the 
front several times...the Theta-E ridge can be used as a proxy 
for the best precipitation chances associated with the front and 
is easy to refer to as one thing throughout the forecast. 


By Wednesday...the low-level Theta-E ridge is expected to remain 
stationary along the Red River...but dipping southeast over the 
northeastern County Warning Area towards Shreveport. Guidance continues to show 
that upper level troughing will dominate the eastern Continental U.S. By 
Wednesday with upper level ridging over the southwestern Continental U.S.. 
this leaves the South Plains in northwest flow aloft. Models have 
been showing a shortwave trough in this flow regime headed over 
the area sometime between Wednesday and Thursday. The consensus of 
yesterday evenings models now indicate that this shortwave will 
move over the northern portions of North Texas during the day on 
Wednesday. This feature is actually track-able on water vapor 
satellite imagery now as well...making for a higher confidence 
forecast in general. This shortwave was over Baja California California at 
the time of this discussion. 


With the Theta-E ridge/front in place as mentioned above...the 
forcing for ascent induced by the shortwave trough should give US 
our best precipitation chances for this week. Went ahead with 40 
to 60 probability of precipitation for locations along and northeast of a line from Bowie 
to McKinney to Emory on Wednesday and Wednesday night as a result. 
Locally heavy rainfall looks much more likely for these areas as 
precipitable waters  are expected to be in excess of 2 inches during this time 
frame...and a nearly stationary Theta-E ridge interacting with 
forcing should promote a good coverage of storms. A Flood Watch is 
not expected at this time...but we will have to monitor to see if 
mesoscale/smaller scale forecast details dictate a more 
widespread flooding event in later forecasts. For now it looks 
like the threat of any flooding will tend to be localized in 
nature. 


The Theta-E ridge/front is expected to slide south across North 
Texas on Thursday...and kept widespread 30-50 probability of precipitation in place as a 
result. With so much going on before this front begins to move 
again on Thursday...will not get into the details of this forecast 
period as widespread thunderstorm activity over the northeastern 
County Warning Area will probably change things quite a bit in later forecasts. 


Precipitation chances will continue to diminish behind the front 
on Friday...with model consensus showing much drier conditions 
over the region by Saturday. Left 20 probability of precipitation in the forecast for 
Friday...with a dry forecast for next weekend into early next week 
as a result. Temperatures will likely be unseasonably cool across 
the area Thursday and Friday...warming back up towards normal by 
early next week with drier air and mostly sunny skies in place. 


Cavanaugh 






&& 




Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 94 75 93 74 94 / 30 20 20 20 20 
Waco, Texas 97 75 92 73 97 / 40 30 20 10 10 
Paris, Texas 91 68 87 70 80 / 40 10 10 30 50 
Denton, Texas 93 71 90 72 93 / 40 20 20 20 30 
McKinney, Texas 95 70 93 72 92 / 40 10 10 20 30 
Dallas, Texas 95 76 93 75 94 / 30 20 20 20 20 
Terrell, Texas 96 73 95 74 93 / 30 20 10 20 20 
Corsicana, Texas 95 74 95 73 95 / 40 20 10 20 10 
Temple, Texas 98 73 93 72 97 / 40 30 20 10 10 
Mineral Wells, Texas 93 72 91 71 96 / 30 30 30 20 20 


&& 


Forward watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 


&& 


$$ 


58/25 












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