Terrell, Texas Weather Conditions

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Current Conditions

  • 67°
  • Heavy Thunderstorms and Rain
  • Wind: Calm
  • Humidity: 90%
  • Visibility: 3.0 miles
  • Dew Point: 64°
  • Pressure: 29.72 in. -

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Next 12 Hours

9  pm
12  am
3  am
6  am
9  am
Thunderstorm
T-storms
Mostly Cloudy
Mostly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Clear
Clear
70°
71°
67°
65°
70°
Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

  • Saturday
  • Partly Cloudy
  • High: 87 °
  • Low: 59 °
  • Partly Cloudy
  • Sunday
  • Partly Cloudy
  • High: 88 °
  • Low: 63 °
  • Partly Cloudy
  • Monday
  • Thunderstorm
  • High: 73 °
  • Low: 55 °
  • T-Storms
  • Tuesday
  • Chance of Rain
  • High: 63 °
  • Low: 49 °
  • Chance of Rain
  • Wednesday
  • Clear
  • High: 73 °
  • Low: 51 °
  • Clear

Forecast for Terrell, Texas

Updated: 7:18 PM CDT on January 24, 2015

Flash Flood Watch in effect until 7 PM CDT this evening...
  • Friday

    Thunderstorms early. Lows overnight in the mid 60s.

  • Friday Night

    Thunderstorms this evening, then skies turning partly cloudy after midnight. A few storms may be severe. Low 64F. Winds SSW at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 100%.

  • Saturday

    Partly cloudy skies. High 87F. Winds WSW at 10 to 15 mph.

  • Saturday Night

    A mostly clear sky. Low 59F. Winds SSW at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Sunday

    Partly cloudy skies. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 88F. Winds SSW at 10 to 15 mph.

  • Sunday Night

    Isolated thunderstorms during the evening becoming more widespread overnight. Potential for severe thunderstorms. Low 63F. Winds E at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 80%.

  • Monday

    Thunderstorms. Potential for severe thunderstorms. High 73F. Winds E at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 100%.

  • Monday Night

    Thunderstorms during the evening followed by occasional showers overnight. Low around 55F. Winds NE at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 100%.

  • Tuesday

    Rain showers early with overcast skies later in the day. High 63F. Winds NNE at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

  • Tuesday Night

    A few clouds. Low 49F. Winds NNW at 10 to 15 mph.

  • Wednesday

    Sunny along with a few clouds. High 73F. Winds NNW at 10 to 15 mph.

  • Wednesday Night

    Clear skies. Low 51F. Winds NW at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Thursday

    Sunny. High 79F. Winds N at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Thursday Night

    Clear skies. Low 54F. Winds light and variable.

  • Friday

    Mostly sunny skies. High 81F. Winds SE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Friday Night

    A mostly clear sky. Low 58F. Winds light and variable.

  • Saturday

    Except for a few afternoon clouds, mainly sunny. High 81F. Winds SSE at 10 to 15 mph.

  • Saturday Night

    Partly cloudy. Low near 60F. Winds SSE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Sunday

    Generally sunny despite a few afternoon clouds. High 83F. Winds SSE at 10 to 15 mph.

  • Sunday Night

    A few clouds from time to time. Low 63F. Winds SSE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Monday

    Scattered thunderstorms. High 82F. Winds SSE at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50%.

  • Monday Night

    Variably cloudy with scattered thunderstorms. Low 64F. Winds SSE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50%.

Severe Weather Alert Descriptions

 Tornado Watch  Statement as of 7:03 PM CDT on April 24, 2015


Tornado Watch 100 remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for the
following locations


TX
. Texas counties included are

Anderson Bell Bosque
Brown Coleman Collin
Comanche Concho Coryell
Dallas Delta Denton
Eastland Ellis Erath
falls Freestone Hamilton
Henderson Hill Hood
Hopkins Hunt Jack
Johnson Kaufman Lampasas
Limestone McCulloch McLennan
Menard Mills Navarro
Palo Pinto Parker rains
Rockwall San Saba Schleicher
Somervell Stephens Tarrant
Van Zandt wise Young




 Flash Flood Watch, Areal Flood Advisory  Statement as of 6:56 PM CDT on April 24, 2015


... Flash Flood Watch now in effect until midnight CDT tonight...

The Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for

* portions of north central Texas and northeast Texas...
including the following areas... in north central Texas...
Collin... Cooke... Dallas... Denton... Fannin... Grayson... Hunt...
Kaufman... Montague... Parker... Rockwall... Tarrant and wise. In
northeast Texas... Delta... Hopkins... Lamar... rains and Van
Zandt.

* Until midnight CDT tonight

* the combination of deep moisture and lift over the region is
expected to persist through this evening. These are favorable
ingredients for heavy rainfall which is likely to lead to
flash flooding.

* Flash flooding in urban areas will result in the rapid
flooding of low-lying areas. Avoid driving in or moving into
low lying areas if a thunderstorm moves over your location.
Avoid any water covered roadways as the roadway below the
water may be washed out. Most flash flooding deaths are
preventable.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions are favorable for heavy
rain which may lead to flash flooding. You should monitor the
latest forecasts from the National Weather Service and be
prepared to take action should flash flood warnings be issued for
your area.





715 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a

* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for...
Rockwall County in north central Texas...
Hunt County in north central Texas...
Kaufman County in north central Texas...

* until 915 PM CDT

* at 714 PM CDT... Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
thunderstorms. This will cause Urban and Small Stream flooding in
the advisory area.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Mesquite... Rowlett... Rockwall... Greenville... Terrell...
Seagoville... Forney... Commerce... Kaufman... Royse City... Heath...
fate... Sunnyvale... Crandall... combine... West Tawakoni... Talty...
Wolfe City... Quinlan and Caddo Mills.

Lat... Lon 3298 9595 3288 9599 3285 9596 3284 9608
      3246 9608 3241 9644 3245 9650 3253 9651
      3254 9653 3298 9652 3298 9630 3335 9629
      3337 9586 3298 9586


Ajs




Personal Weather Stations

Personal Weather Stations [Add your weather station!]

Location: APRSWXNET, Terrell, TX

Updated: 7:54 PM CDT

Temperature: 63 °F Dew Point: 62 °F Humidity: 97% Wind: NNE at 5 mph Pressure: 29.68 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: - Graphs

Location: MesoWest, Elmo, TX

Updated: 7:25 PM CDT

Temperature: 71 °F Dew Point: - Humidity: - Wind: Calm Pressure: - Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: - Graphs

Location: Layden Farms Talty, TX, Forney, TX

Updated: 8:19 PM CDT

Temperature: 64.3 °F Dew Point: 64 °F Humidity: 98% Wind: ESE at 6.0 mph Pressure: 29.65 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.05 in Heat Index: - Graphs

Location: Winners Circle Talty, TX, Terrell, TX

Updated: 8:19 PM CDT

Temperature: 64.6 °F Dew Point: 64 °F Humidity: 97% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.61 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: - Graphs

Location: Grandview Estates, Forney, TX

Updated: 8:14 PM CDT

Temperature: 64.6 °F Dew Point: 62 °F Humidity: 92% Wind: East at 5.8 mph Pressure: 29.40 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: - Graphs

Location: County Road 214, Terrell, TX

Updated: 8:15 PM CDT

Temperature: 66.2 °F Dew Point: 64 °F Humidity: 93% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.65 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: - Graphs

Location: Diamond Creek, Forney, TX

Updated: 8:14 PM CDT

Temperature: 66.7 °F Dew Point: 66 °F Humidity: 98% Wind: WSW at 5.1 mph Pressure: - Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: - Graphs

Location: Elmo, TX, Elmo, TX

Updated: 7:13 PM MDT

Temperature: 64.5 °F Dew Point: 63 °F Humidity: 96% Wind: NE at 2.0 mph Pressure: 29.60 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: - Graphs

Location: Dogwood Trail, Forney, TX

Updated: 8:19 PM CDT

Temperature: 64.6 °F Dew Point: 64 °F Humidity: 97% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.63 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.05 in Heat Index: - Graphs

Location: Grayhawk, Forney, TX

Updated: 8:11 PM CDT

Temperature: 64.4 °F Dew Point: 64 °F Humidity: 98% Wind: SE at 3.2 mph Pressure: 29.53 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: - Graphs

Location: Skyline Estates, Forney, TX

Updated: 8:15 PM CDT

Temperature: 64.0 °F Dew Point: 64 °F Humidity: 99% Wind: ESE at 5.1 mph Pressure: 29.41 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: - Graphs

Location: Kingsbridge Lane, Rockwall, TX

Updated: 8:16 PM CDT

Temperature: 66.7 °F Dew Point: 64 °F Humidity: 91% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.73 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: - Graphs

Location: T48 Airport - Poetry, TX, Terrell, TX

Updated: 8:19 PM CDT

Temperature: 64.0 °F Dew Point: 63 °F Humidity: 97% Wind: ENE at 4.0 mph Pressure: 29.63 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.51 in Heat Index: - Graphs

Location: Rabbit Ridge, Heath, TX

Updated: 8:19 PM CDT

Temperature: 63.7 °F Dew Point: 64 °F Humidity: 100% Wind: SSE at 18.4 mph Pressure: 29.66 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.58 in Heat Index: - Graphs

Location: Laurence Drive, Heath, TX

Updated: 8:16 PM CDT

Temperature: 65.5 °F Dew Point: 62 °F Humidity: 89% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.69 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: - Graphs

Location: Heath, Texas, FM1140, Heath, TX

Updated: 8:19 PM CDT

Temperature: 64.3 °F Dew Point: 63 °F Humidity: 96% Wind: WSW at 4.0 mph Pressure: 29.54 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.07 in Heat Index: - Graphs

Location: Heathen One, Heath, TX

Updated: 8:06 PM CDT

Temperature: 64.0 °F Dew Point: 64 °F Humidity: 98% Wind: East at 6.0 mph Pressure: 29.61 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.60 in Heat Index: - Graphs

Location: Royce City FM2584, Royse City, TX

Updated: 8:15 PM CDT

Temperature: 64.8 °F Dew Point: 63 °F Humidity: 94% Wind: SE at 1.0 mph Pressure: 30.06 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.60 in Heat Index: - Graphs

Location: Kaufman C71, Kaufman, TX

Updated: 7:50 PM CDT

Temperature: 73.8 °F Dew Point: - Humidity: 93% Wind: North at - Pressure: - Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: 71 °F Graphs

Location: Duck Creek, Terrell, TX

Updated: 8:19 PM CDT

Temperature: 64.8 °F Dew Point: 64 °F Humidity: 97% Wind: ESE at 2.0 mph Pressure: 29.70 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.14 in Heat Index: - Graphs

Location: RCEC, Rockwall, TX

Updated: 8:19 PM CDT

Temperature: 64.9 °F Dew Point: 65 °F Humidity: 100% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.32 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: - Graphs

Location: Royse City Pasture, Royse City, TX

Updated: 8:17 PM CDT

Temperature: 64.2 °F Dew Point: 64 °F Humidity: 99% Wind: SSE at 5.8 mph Pressure: 29.61 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: - Graphs

Location: The Oaks, Union Valley, TX

Updated: 8:19 PM CDT

Temperature: 63.9 °F Dew Point: 61 °F Humidity: 90% Wind: ENE at 6.9 mph Pressure: 29.10 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.59 in Heat Index: - Graphs

Location: Woodcreek, Fate, TX

Updated: 8:19 PM CDT

Temperature: 64.0 °F Dew Point: 64 °F Humidity: 100% Wind: South at 5.8 mph Pressure: 28.93 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.52 in Heat Index: - Graphs

Location: All Texas Process Servers 972-618-2700, Quinlan, TX

Updated: 8:19 PM CDT

Temperature: 63.9 °F Dew Point: 61 °F Humidity: 90% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.39 in Hourly Precipitation: 1.33 in Heat Index: - Graphs

Location: Woodcreek, Fate, TX

Updated: 8:19 PM CDT

Temperature: 64.3 °F Dew Point: 63 °F Humidity: 95% Wind: SE at 2.5 mph Pressure: 28.95 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.54 in Heat Index: - Graphs

Location: Historical Rockwall, Rockwall, TX

Updated: 8:19 PM CDT

Temperature: 64.8 °F Dew Point: 65 °F Humidity: 99% Wind: SSE at 4.0 mph Pressure: 29.34 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.07 in Heat Index: - Graphs

Location: Stoney Creek, Sunnyvale, TX

Updated: 8:14 PM CDT

Temperature: 67.5 °F Dew Point: 64 °F Humidity: 90% Wind: ESE at 2.2 mph Pressure: 29.58 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: - Graphs

Location: Lk Ray Hubbard, Garland, TX

Updated: 8:10 PM CDT

Temperature: 65.0 °F Dew Point: - Humidity: - Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.15 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: - Graphs

Location: McKamy Meadows, Royse City, TX

Updated: 8:19 PM CDT

Temperature: 64.4 °F Dew Point: 64 °F Humidity: 98% Wind: East at 3.5 mph Pressure: 29.66 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.48 in Heat Index: - Graphs

Location: McKamy_Meadows, Royse City, TX

Updated: 8:19 PM CDT

Temperature: 64.2 °F Dew Point: 64 °F Humidity: 98% Wind: East at 3.5 mph Pressure: 29.66 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.62 in Heat Index: - Graphs

Location: Rockwall Heath C69, Rockwall, TX

Updated: 7:50 PM CDT

Temperature: 64.2 °F Dew Point: - Humidity: - Wind: North at - Pressure: - Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: - Graphs

Location: Deer Park, Quinlan, TX

Updated: 8:19 PM CDT

Temperature: 63.0 °F Dew Point: 55 °F Humidity: 76% Wind: SE at 4.6 mph Pressure: 31.54 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.29 in Heat Index: - Graphs

Location: Lakeshore Park Estates, Rowlett, TX

Updated: 8:19 PM CDT

Temperature: 65.1 °F Dew Point: 65 °F Humidity: 98% Wind: SSE at 6.9 mph Pressure: 29.60 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.85 in Heat Index: - Graphs

Location: Pinnacle 1, Rockwall, TX

Updated: 8:19 PM CDT

Temperature: 64.6 °F Dew Point: 64 °F Humidity: 96% Wind: East at 2.0 mph Pressure: 29.60 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.51 in Heat Index: - Graphs

Location: Valley Creek, Mesquite, TX

Updated: 8:18 PM CDT

Temperature: 64.2 °F Dew Point: 63 °F Humidity: 95% Wind: ESE at 1.7 mph Pressure: 29.37 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: - Graphs

Location: Lake Crest Park, Garland, TX

Updated: 8:19 PM CDT

Temperature: 64.0 °F Dew Point: 64 °F Humidity: 98% Wind: SSW at 8.1 mph Pressure: 29.61 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.80 in Heat Index: - Graphs

MSN Maps of:

Temp: Dew Point: Humidity Wind Pressure Hr Precip -

NWS Forecaster Discussion




Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas 
256 PM CDT Friday Apr 24 2015 


Discussion... 


For today...our thinking has not changed significantly from the 
late morning forecast update/discussion...therefore the previous 
discussion has been left below. Most of the details regarding the 
expectations for thunderstorms through tonight are still valid 
from the late morning discussion. 


Changes from late this morning: a Tornado Watch has been issued 
for much of north and central Texas through 10 PM CDT. A Flash 
Flood Watch is in effect for locations along and north of the 
Interstate 20 corridor...generally east of Weatherford...through 7 
PM CDT. 


Clouds cleared out just enough to allow for some surface based 
storms to develop west of North Texas. These storms are expected 
to move east this afternoon...and the thermodynamic and kinematic 
environment in place across north and central Texas is expected to 
remain favorable to maintain the structure of these storms as they 
move east. Supercell thunderstorms are expected as the initial 
storm Mode...with storm mergers and cold pool consolidation more 
likely to lead to upscale growth to a qlcs early this evening. The 
warm front is eventually expected to lift slowly north across the 
metroplex...but was not moving much as of 2 PM. 


Wherever supercells interact with the warm front...the threat for 
tornadoes is expected to be highest...so the position of the warm 
front will be an important feature to track through this evening. 
Other than tornadoes...supercells will be capable of producing 
large hail and damaging winds. If upscale growth into a qlcs 
occurs as expected...the main threat would transition over to 
damaging straight line winds. Flash flooding remains most likely 
along and north of the warm front...so no changes to the Flash 
Flood Watch area will be made at this time. 


Tonight and Saturday...once storms move east away from north and 
central Texas...a Pacific type cold front is expected to send much 
drier air into the region for Saturday. With dry air in place 
during the day on Saturday...skies are expected to be mostly clear 
and highs are expected to climb into the middle 80s. 


Sunday...models indicate that a strong upper level trough 
currently off the coast of western Canada will dig south over the 
southwestern Continental U.S. Saturday night into Sunday. This feature is 
expected to spread strong large scale forcing for ascent over the 
southern High Plains...resulting in relatively strong Lee side 
cyclogenesis over the Texas Panhandle. This should bring low-level 
moisture back across north and central Texas rapidly on Sunday. 
With moisture back in place...and strong upper level diffluence 
aloft over the dryline...expect storms will develop along the 
dryline late Sunday afternoon. If the dryline is close enough to 
the County Warning Area...severe thunderstorms would likely develop near the 
dryline and move east Sunday evening. Confidence in the exact 
position of the dryline is not high at this time...so only went 
with a mention of 30 probability of precipitation west of Interstate 35 in this forecast. 
If storms do develop west of Interstate 35...they would likely be 
supercells and capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. 


Monday...the upper trough is expected to become a cut-off low and 
then move slowly east towards North Texas. The strong large scale 
forcing for ascent associated with the upper low would likely lead 
to widespread thunderstorm activity across north and central Texas 
on Monday. The severe weather chances on Monday will likely be 
very dependent upon how fast storms develop and move across the 
area Monday morning. Deep layer shear values are expected to be 
strong enough to support an organized storm Mode...but the amount 
of thermodynamic energy available for free convection is uncertain 
at this time. If storms were to hold off until the late afternoon 
hours of the day...there would likely be enough instability and 
shear in place to once again support a supercell storm Mode Monday 
afternoon. If storms develop during the morning however...the 
morning convection may stabilize the environment too much for any 
significant severe thunderstorm threat Monday afternoon. 


Tuesday...depending on the speed of the upper low...if it is over 
North Texas...or to our east...Tuesday will likely be dry. If the 
upper low is over the County Warning Area or just off to the west...more 
thunderstorm activity is possible during the day on Tuesday. At 
this time simply left the 20 to 30 percent chance of storms in the 
forecast to account for uncertainty regarding the speed of this 
upper low. We will be able to refine thunderstorm chances on 
Tuesday once the upper low is over the southwestern Continental U.S. And its 
eastward track is resolved better by forecast guidance. 


Remainder of the week...a cold front is expected to move across 
the region behind the upper low...leaving drier and cooler air in 
place. Dry conditions look to hold from Wednesday through the end 
of the week at this time with weak upper level ridging building in 
over the region behind the upper low. 


Cavanaugh 


&& 


Previous update from 11 am... 


Water vapor satellite imagery shows a strong shortwave trough 
over far West Texas...moving northeast over eastern New Mexico. 
This trough is expected to continue northeast throughout the day 
today...spreading relatively strong large scale forcing for ascent 
over the region. 12z upper air analysis showed a plume of deep 
moisture in place over the Southern Plains with strong speed and 
directional shear from the surface to 500 mb. At the 850 mb level 
a relatively strong trough was analyzed over the High 
Plains...downstream of the shortwave trough moving northeast over 
the region. At the surface...ongoing thunderstorm activity left a 
somewhat messy analysis in place...but based on the 15z analysis 
there was a warm front located just south of the Interstate 20 
corridor across the dfw area...more or less attached to a surface 
low located in southern Palo Pinto County. 


15z regional radars showed scattered convection near the surface 
low...and all along and north of the warm front. Visible satellite 
imagery showed that the thick morning cloud cover was beginning to 
clear out from Cleburne southwest to Goldthwaite...and south along 
the Interstate 35/35w corridors. From Granbury to Cleburne 
southwest towards Hamilton...locally calculated convective 
parameters were highlighting a local maxima of low-level (0-3 km) 
cape of around 100 to 150 j/kg...and a low-level ehi of just under 
2. Both of these parameters favor the potential for strong low- 
level updrafts and the potential to tilt low-level horizontal 
vorticity into the vertical. The primary missing ingredient to 
accomplish this thus far has been well organized convection/strong 
updrafts. 


While deep moisture was analyzed on the 12z upper air maps...there 
were no strong or steep middle-level lapse rates analyzed upstream of 
north and central Texas. While deep moisture values appear to be 
at near record levels for this time of year...this deep moisture 
also indicates that there is no strong Theta-E change with 
height...leading to a thermodynamic profile characterized by tall 
and skinny cape. While this is a very favorable profile for 
thunderstorm chances and efficient rainfall in general...it could 
limit the strength of initial updrafts today. If storms can 
maintain updrafts long enough to ingest some of the relatively 
strong horizontal vorticity indicated by calculated parameters... 
supercells will become more likely. If a supercell can become 
established...the internal dynamics of the supercell will promote 
a much stronger updraft than what would be supported by 
thermodynamics alone. 


With strong forcing upstream...deep moisture in place...and almost 
no capping inversion in place...thunderstorms are very likely 
today...and will likely continue into the afternoon hours of the 
day. Copious amounts of morning convection can often stabilize the 
environment making it less favorable for storms later on. That 
does not appear to be the case today as the lack of a strong 
Theta-E difference with height not only limits updraft 
strength...but it also limits the strength of rain cooled air... 
I.E. The rain is not very cold because there is not much dry air 
aloft today. The primary forecast challenge in determining storm 
Mode and then the associated hazards. Heres what we're watching 
closely: 


In general...the kinematic or wind shear and forcing environment 
are favorable for supercell thunderstorms and tornadoes today. The 
thermodynamic environment is more questionable. We certainly have 
ample moisture in place to support any storm Mode...but lapse 
rates aloft are somewhat marginal...limiting updraft strength from 
air being lifted above its level of free convection. It looks like 
the more sunshine we get through this afternoon...the more likely 
we are to see supercell thunderstorms. The more cloud cover we 
hang on to...the more likely we are to see numerous...somewhat 
weaker storms...that pose more of a heavy rainfall and flooding 
threat than a large hail...damaging wind and tornado threat. 


If we maintain the clearing south-southwest of the dfw area for a 
few hours headed into this afternoon...our chances of seeing a 
supercell storm Mode increase quite a bit. Low-level heating will 
help more or less make up for the marginal middle-level lapse rates 
and increase updraft speed to the point that supercells dominate 
the initial storm Mode. If we get storms quickly...or simply cloud 
up here again before noon...a more widespread storm coverage may 
occur with weaker storms in general. 


In either case...most model guidance favors thunderstorms growing 
upscale into a squall line and moving east across north and 
central Texas by late this afternoon. With a near record 
precipitable water value observed on the 12z forward 
sounding...flooding is also a major concern today. Once deep 
convection initiates...any training of storms will likely result 
in enough locally heavy rainfall to result in flooding. Rainfall 
rates of 2 inches per hour are very likely... and really the only 
limiting factor for flooding is the expected speed of storms. 
Storms are expected to move east or northeast at 35 to 40 miles per hour 
today...making any one storm unlikely to produce flooding. 


We will be keeping a close eye on all of these factors headed into 
the afternoon hours...and will issue the appropriate watches as 
various threat levels increase. There is a fair amount of 
uncertainty regarding storm Mode this afternoon...so it is 
advisable to pay close attention to the forecast throughout the 
day as conditions could become more favorable for supercells or 
heavy rainfall and flooding quickly. We will provide short term 
forecast updates as quickly as possible as these conditions 
evolve. 


Cavanaugh 


&& 


Aviation... 
/issued 105 PM CDT Friday Apr 24 2015/ 


This morning's convection has pushed east of the terminals as of 
1730 z. As a result...expect ceilings to raise to MVFR shortly. 
However...convection is expected to redevelop this afternoon 
across the area...but storm development will be partially 
dependent upon if we continue to see ample clearing...which would 
lead to the increased surface heating necessary for initiation. 
Regardless...if storms develop...these storms will be in a 
favorable environment to become severe...and all facets of severe 
weather would be on The Table this afternoon and evening. 


Regarding winds...because of the complex set of surface 
boundaries currently in play across the area...winds will be 
somewhat variable. Right now though...a warm front is draped 
across the dfw metroplex...so winds north of the front are 
easterly to northeasterly. South of the front...winds are from the 
south and southeast. The warm front appears to be moving north 
now...so expect winds at all dfw terminals to veer to the 
southeast later this afternoon. At kact...winds remain southerly. 


Once this system clears out of the region late tonight...expect 
ceilings and visibility to raise to VFR by this evening and prevail through 
Saturday. Likewise...winds will continue to veer and eventually become 
northwesterly by tonight as well. 


Ajs 


&& 




Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 63 86 61 87 64 / 40 5 5 20 30 
Waco, Texas 64 87 61 86 65 / 50 5 5 20 30 
Paris, Texas 61 84 58 85 58 / 60 5 5 10 30 
Denton, Texas 60 86 57 86 61 / 30 0 5 30 30 
McKinney, Texas 61 85 58 86 61 / 40 5 5 20 30 
Dallas, Texas 64 88 63 88 64 / 40 5 5 20 30 
Terrell, Texas 66 87 60 86 63 / 60 5 5 20 30 
Corsicana, Texas 66 87 63 86 64 / 60 5 5 20 30 
Temple, Texas 64 89 63 86 65 / 50 5 5 30 30 
Mineral Wells, Texas 58 87 57 86 62 / 10 0 5 30 40 


&& 


Forward watches/warnings/advisories... 
Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for txz091>095- 
102>107-117>123. 




&& 


$$ 






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