Rowlett, Texas Weather Conditions

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Current Conditions

  • 74°
  • Clear
  • Wind: Calm
  • Humidity: 83%
  • Visibility: 10.0 miles
  • Dew Point: 68°
  • Pressure: 29.95 in. 0

Nowcast

  • Now as of 7:09 PM CDT on May 29, 2015

    An area of showers and an isolated thunderstorm over Lamar County and the far eastern section of Delta County. This area will begin to diminish as sunset approaches...but a few showers may last through 9 PM. The area was moving slowly northeast and could produce several more hundredths of an inch of rainfall before exiting ending. A thunderstorms could produce around one half inch of rainfall.

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Next 12 Hours

9  pm
12  am
3  am
6  am
9  am
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Chance of a Thunderstorm
Chance of T-storms
Chance of a Thunderstorm
Chance of T-storms
Chance of a Thunderstorm
Chance of T-storms
75°
72°
69°
69°
70°
Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

  • Saturday
  • Chance of a Thunderstorm
  • High: 80 °
  • Low: 60 °
  • Chance of T-Storms
  • Sunday
  • Clear
  • High: 80 °
  • Low: 61 °
  • Clear
  • Monday
  • Clear
  • High: 84 °
  • Low: 64 °
  • Clear
  • Tuesday
  • Clear
  • High: 86 °
  • Low: 66 °
  • Clear
  • Wednesday
  • Partly Cloudy
  • High: 86 °
  • Low: 68 °
  • Partly Cloudy

Forecast for Rowlett, Texas

Updated: 7:36 PM CDT on January 29, 2015

Flash Flood Watch in effect through Saturday morning...
  • Friday

    Showers and thunderstorms late. Lows overnight in the upper 60s.

  • Friday Night

    Partly cloudy skies this evening. Thunderstorms likely late. Low 68F. Winds light and variable. Chance of rain 80%.

  • Saturday

    Mixed clouds and sun with scattered thunderstorms. High around 80F. Winds N at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 60%.

  • Saturday Night

    Partly cloudy skies. Low near 60F. Winds N at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Sunday

    Sunny skies. High near 80F. Winds N at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Sunday Night

    Clear skies. Low 61F. Winds light and variable.

  • Monday

    Sunny. High 84F. Winds light and variable.

  • Monday Night

    Clear skies. Low 64F. Winds light and variable.

  • Tuesday

    Sunny along with a few clouds. High 86F. Winds SE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Tuesday Night

    A few clouds. Low 66F. Winds SE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Wednesday

    Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 86F. Winds SSE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Wednesday Night

    Clear skies. Low 68F. Winds SSE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Thursday

    A mainly sunny sky. High 87F. Winds SSE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Thursday Night

    Clear skies. Low 69F. Winds SSE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Friday

    Partly cloudy. High 88F. Winds SSE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Friday Night

    A mostly clear sky. Low 69F. Winds SSE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Saturday

    Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High around 90F. Winds SSE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Saturday Night

    Mostly clear skies. Low 71F. Winds SSE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Sunday

    Sunshine along with some cloudy intervals. High around 90F. Winds SSE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Sunday Night

    Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms developing overnight. Low 71F. Winds E at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

  • Monday

    Scattered thunderstorms early. Skies will become mostly sunny later in the day. High 89F. Winds E at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

  • Monday Night

    Mostly clear skies early. Scattered thunderstorms developing later at night. Low 71F. Winds light and variable. Chance of rain 40%.

Severe Weather Alert Descriptions

 Areal Flood Warning  Statement as of 6:14 PM CDT on May 29, 2015


The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a

* Flood Warning for urban areas and small streams in...
Dallas County in north central Texas...

* until 315 am CDT Saturday

* at 613 PM CDT... flooding is ongoing from the rainfall received
overnight last night... so the warning will be continued.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Dallas... Garland... Irving... Grand Prairie... Mesquite...
Carrollton... Richardson... Rowlett... DeSoto... Grapevine... Cedar
Hill... Wylie... Coppell... Duncanville... Lancaster... Farmers
Branch... Balch Springs... University Park... Sachse and Seagoville.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Most flood deaths occur in automobiles. Never drive your vehicle into
areas where the water covers the roadway. Flood waters are usually
deeper than they appear. Just one foot of flowing water is powerful
enough to sweep vehicles off the Road. When encountering flooded
roads make the smart choice... turn around... dont drown.


Lat... Lon 3298 9652 3255 9652 3255 9704 3299 9703


Ajs



542 PM CDT Fri may 29 2015

... Forecast flooding increased from moderate to major severity...
the Flood Warning continues for
the Elm Fork Trinity River near Carrollton.
* Until further notice... or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 0515 PM Friday the stage was 10.86 feet.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and major flooding is forecast.
* Forecast... the river will continue rising to a crest near 12 feet
by Sunday evening then begin falling but remain above flood stage
for the next several days.
* At 12 feet, major flooding will occur on the right bank upstream and
downstream from the gage. The water will reach the low steel on the
bridge.


Lat... Lon 3300 9700 3287 9699 3287 9687 3300 9688




613 PM CDT Fri may 29 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
the Trinity River at Dallas.
* At 0600 PM Friday the stage was 42.03 feet.
* Flood stage is 30 feet.
* Major flooding is occurring and major flooding is forecast.
* Forecast... the river will continue rising to a crest near 43 feet
by Saturday after midnight then begin falling but remain above
flood stage.
* At 42 feet, the S.L. & S.W. Railroad and Santa Fe Railroad bridges
in south Dallas flood.




613 PM CDT Fri may 29 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
the West Fork Trinity River at Grand Prairie.
* At 0530 PM Friday the stage was 28.15 feet.
* Flood stage is 27 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast... the river will continue rising to a crest near 30 feet
by Saturday morning. The river should fall below flood stage Sunday
morning.


Lat... Lon 3274 9703 3280 9700 3281 9693 3275 9693





 Flash Flood Watch  Statement as of 1:48 PM CDT on May 29, 2015


... Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through Saturday morning...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* portions of north central Texas... northeast Texas and south
central Texas... including the following areas... in north
central Texas... Bell... Bosque... Collin... Comanche... Cooke...
Coryell... Dallas... Denton... Eastland... Ellis... Erath... falls...
   Fannin... Freestone... Grayson... Hamilton... Hill... Hood...
Hunt... Jack... Johnson... Kaufman... Lampasas... Limestone...
McLennan... Mills... Montague... Navarro... Palo Pinto... Parker...
Rockwall... Somervell... Stephens... Tarrant... wise and Young.
In northeast Texas... Anderson... Delta... Henderson... Hopkins...
Lamar... Leon... rains and Van Zandt. In south central Texas...
Milam and Robertson.

* Through Saturday morning

* widespread 1 to 3 inches with isolated higher amounts possible.

* Soils are saturated across the watch area. Any additional
heavy rain will runoff quickly and result in flash flooding.
In addition... heavy rains will only aggravate ongoing river
and lake flooding across the area.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions are favorable for heavy
rain which may lead to flash flooding. You should monitor the
latest forecasts from the National Weather Service and be
prepared to take action should flash flood warnings be issued for
your area.






 Record Report  Statement as of 2:05 am CDT on May 29, 2015


... Record rainfall for the month of may set at Dallas Fort Worth...

As of midnight CST... dfw had received a record rainfall of 13.87
inches for the month of may. This broke the old record of 13.66 set
in 1982. Additional rain during the next few days will only add to
this new record.




 Local Storm Report 



05/29/2015 0859 am

Dallas, Dallas County.

Flash flood, reported by public.


            Loop 12 under I-30 remains under several feet of water.




05/29/2015 0915 am

Grand Prairie, Dallas County.

Flash flood, reported by public.


            4000 blk of East Jefferson remains closed due to
            flooding.




05/29/2015 0915 am

Grand Prairie, Dallas County.

Flash flood, reported by public.


            4000 blk of East Jefferson remains closed due to
            flooding.




05/29/2015 0859 am

Dallas, Dallas County.

Flash flood, reported by public.


            Loop 12 under I-30 remains under several feet of water.




05/29/2015 0850 am

Sachse, Dallas County.

Flash flood, reported by public.


            Pleasant Valley Rd remains flooded after police officer
            was trapped for 2 hours




05/29/2015 0850 am

Sachse, Dallas County.

Flash flood, reported by public.


            Pleasant Valley Rd remains flooded after police officer
            was trapped for 2 hours




05/29/2015 0420 am

Garland, Dallas County.

Flash flood, reported by public.


            Garland pd reporting cars swept from driveways along
            Duck Creek in garland; Glenbrook and Carroll. Via social
            media




05/29/2015 0424 am

Grand Prairie, Dallas County.

Flash flood, reported by public.


            The area near I-20 and Carrier Pkwy is under water




05/29/2015 0322 am

Grand Prairie, Dallas County.

Flash flood, reported by broadcast media.


            First floor apartments flooded on 1000 south belt line.
            Residents evacuated.




05/29/2015 0322 am

1 miles SW of Garland, Dallas County.

Flash flood, reported by public.


            Multiple vehicles stuck in high water on northwest
            Highway and Garland Road




05/29/2015 0309 am

Dallas, Dallas County.

Flash flood, reported by public.


            Water covers the yard and is up to porches near 635 and
            Oates




05/29/2015 0424 am

Grand Prairie, Dallas County.

Flash flood, reported by public.


            The area near I-20 and Carrier Pkwy is under water




05/29/2015 0424 am

Grand Prairie, Dallas County.

Flash flood, reported by public.


            The area near I-20 and Carrier Pkwy is under water




05/29/2015 0306 am

Garland, Dallas County.

Flash flood, reported by public.


            Water approaching the doors of one home on resistol in
            Garland.




05/29/2015 0322 am

Grand Prairie, Dallas County.

Flash flood, reported by broadcast media.


            First floor apartments flooded on 1000 south belt line.
            Residents evacuated.




05/29/2015 0322 am

Grand Prairie, Dallas County.

Flash flood, reported by broadcast media.


            First floor apartments flooded on 1000 south belt line.
            Residents evacuated.




05/29/2015 0322 am

1 miles SW of Garland, Dallas County.

Flash flood, reported by public.


            Multiple vehicles stuck in high water on northwest
            Highway and Garland Road




05/29/2015 0220 am

Dallas, Dallas County.

Flash flood, reported by public.


            Numerous vehicle rescues in Dallas. Swift water rescues
            on northwest Highway and fire engine has stalled in high
            water.




05/29/2015 0225 am

Dallas, Dallas County.

Flash flood, reported by public.


            Swift water Rescue underway at 2300 west northwest
            Highway.




05/29/2015 0309 am

Dallas, Dallas County.

Flash flood, reported by public.


            Water covers the yard and is up to porches near 635 and
            Oates




05/29/2015 0309 am

Dallas, Dallas County.

Flash flood, reported by public.


            Water covers the yard and is up to porches near 635 and
            Oates




05/29/2015 0306 am

Garland, Dallas County.

Flash flood, reported by public.


            Water approaching the doors of one home on resistol in
            Garland.




05/29/2015 0306 am

Garland, Dallas County.

Flash flood, reported by public.


            Water approaching the doors of one home on resistol in
            Garland.




05/29/2015 0200 am

Dallas, Dallas County.

Flash flood, reported by public.


            Westbound I-30 at Hampton has several cars stalled in
            high water.




05/29/2015 0142 am

2 miles NE of Duncanville, Dallas County.

Flash flood, reported by public.


            Cockrell Hill Road at Illinois Avenue being shutdown due
            to high water




05/29/2015 0144 am

2 miles NE of Duncanville, Dallas County.

Flash flood, reported by public.


            Illinois Avenue being shutdown between Knoxville and
            Duncanville roads due to high water




05/29/2015 0142 am

2 miles NW of Duncanville, Dallas County.

Flash flood, reported by public.


            Cockrell Hill Road at Illinois Avenue being shutdown due
            to high water




05/29/2015 0220 am

Dallas, Dallas County.

Flash flood, reported by public.


            Numerous vehicle rescues in Dallas. Swift water rescues
            on northwest Highway and fire engine has stalled in high
            water.




05/29/2015 0220 am

Dallas, Dallas County.

Flash flood, reported by public.


            Numerous vehicle rescues in Dallas. Swift water rescues
            on northwest Highway and fire engine has stalled in high
            water.




05/29/2015 0225 am

Dallas, Dallas County.

Flash flood, reported by public.


            Swift water Rescue underway at 2300 west northwest
            Highway.




05/29/2015 0225 am

Dallas, Dallas County.

Flash flood, reported by public.


            Swift water Rescue underway at 2300 west northwest
            Highway.




05/29/2015 0142 am

2 miles NE of Duncanville, Dallas County.

Flash flood, reported by public.


            Cockrell Hill Road at Illinois Avenue being shutdown due
            to high water




05/29/2015 0144 am

2 miles NE of Duncanville, Dallas County.

Flash flood, reported by public.


            Illinois Avenue being shutdown between Knoxville and
            Duncanville roads due to high water




05/29/2015 0142 am

2 miles NE of Duncanville, Dallas County.

Flash flood, reported by public.


            Cockrell Hill Road at Illinois Avenue being shutdown due
            to high water




05/29/2015 0142 am

2 miles NE of Duncanville, Dallas County.

Flash flood, reported by public.


            Cockrell Hill Road at Illinois Avenue being shutdown due
            to high water




05/29/2015 0142 am

2 miles NE of Duncanville, Dallas County.

Flash flood, reported by public.


            Cockrell Hill Road at Illinois Avenue being shutdown due
            to high water



Personal Weather Stations

Personal Weather Stations [Add your weather station!]

Location: Oliver, Rowlett, TX

Updated: 9:02 PM CDT

Temperature: 74.4 °F Dew Point: 68 °F Humidity: 80% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.94 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 75 °F Graphs

Location: Rowlett, TX

Updated: 9:00 PM CDT

Temperature: 76.5 °F Dew Point: 68 °F Humidity: 75% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.38 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 78 °F Graphs

Location: Serk's Back Yard, Rowlett, TX

Updated: 8:55 PM CDT

Temperature: 74.5 °F Dew Point: 68 °F Humidity: 80% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.70 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: 75 °F Graphs

Location: Westwood Shores, Rowlett, TX

Updated: 9:03 PM CDT

Temperature: 75.0 °F Dew Point: 70 °F Humidity: 85% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.35 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 75 °F Graphs

Location: Harbor Pointe, Rowlett, TX

Updated: 8:49 PM CDT

Temperature: 75.9 °F Dew Point: 66 °F Humidity: 72% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.66 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: 77 °F Graphs

Location: Rowlett - Springfield Lakes, Rowlett, TX

Updated: 9:02 PM CDT

Temperature: 76.3 °F Dew Point: 68 °F Humidity: 77% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.89 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: 78 °F Graphs

Location: w7dav Rowlett Toler, Rowlett, TX

Updated: 9:02 PM CDT

Temperature: 73.2 °F Dew Point: 69 °F Humidity: 87% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.86 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 72 °F Graphs

Location: Ravens Nest Subdivision, Rowlett, TX

Updated: 9:00 PM CDT

Temperature: 76.5 °F Dew Point: 69 °F Humidity: 78% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.94 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 78 °F Graphs

Location: Westshore Estates, Garland, TX

Updated: 9:03 PM CDT

Temperature: 72.6 °F Dew Point: 68 °F Humidity: 87% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.92 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 71 °F Graphs

Location: Lakeshore Park Estates, Rowlett, TX

Updated: 9:02 PM CDT

Temperature: 74.8 °F Dew Point: 68 °F Humidity: 81% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.92 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 75 °F Graphs

Location: Firewheel Garland, Garland, TX

Updated: 9:03 PM CDT

Temperature: 73.2 °F Dew Point: 69 °F Humidity: 87% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.94 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 72 °F Graphs

Location: Lk Ray Hubbard, Garland, TX

Updated: 9:00 PM CDT

Temperature: 76.8 °F Dew Point: - Humidity: - Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.43 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: - Graphs

Location: Shorehaven, Garland, TX

Updated: 9:02 PM CDT

Temperature: 75.2 °F Dew Point: 61 °F Humidity: 62% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.32 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 77 °F Graphs

Location: Pleasent Valley, Sachse, TX

Updated: 9:03 PM CDT

Temperature: 73.9 °F Dew Point: 71 °F Humidity: 92% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.00 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 72 °F Graphs

Location: Northeast Garland, Garland, TX

Updated: 8:56 PM CDT

Temperature: 76.6 °F Dew Point: 70 °F Humidity: 80% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.89 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 78 °F Graphs

Location: Heritage Park, Sachse, TX

Updated: 9:03 PM CDT

Temperature: 74.4 °F Dew Point: 70 °F Humidity: 85% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.90 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 74 °F Graphs

Location: Lake Crest Park, Garland, TX

Updated: 9:02 PM CDT

Temperature: 75.4 °F Dew Point: 69 °F Humidity: 80% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.91 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 76 °F Graphs

Location: Waters Lane, Rowlett, TX

Updated: 8:55 PM CDT

Temperature: 76.5 °F Dew Point: 68 °F Humidity: 76% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.95 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 78 °F Graphs

Location: Waters Edge, Rowlett, TX

Updated: 8:45 PM CDT

Temperature: 76.8 °F Dew Point: 66 °F Humidity: 75% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.94 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: 78 °F Graphs

Location: Ridgewood Estates, Garland, TX

Updated: 9:03 PM CDT

Temperature: 74.3 °F Dew Point: 68 °F Humidity: 82% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.91 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 74 °F Graphs

Location: Naaman, Garland, TX

Updated: 9:03 PM CDT

Temperature: 75.7 °F Dew Point: 68 °F Humidity: 77% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.94 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 77 °F Graphs

Location: Sachse On The Creek, Sachse, TX

Updated: 9:03 PM CDT

Temperature: 74.4 °F Dew Point: 69 °F Humidity: 84% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.89 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 74 °F Graphs

Location: Woodbridge, Sachse, TX

Updated: 8:26 PM CDT

Temperature: 78.6 °F Dew Point: 68 °F Humidity: 71% Wind: West at 2.5 mph Pressure: 29.86 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 81 °F Graphs

Location: Heathen One, Heath, TX

Updated: 8:58 PM CDT

Temperature: 74.2 °F Dew Point: 70 °F Humidity: 85% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.91 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 74 °F Graphs

Location: Benton Woods, Rockwall, TX

Updated: 9:03 PM CDT

Temperature: 75.0 °F Dew Point: 69 °F Humidity: 81% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.91 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 75 °F Graphs

Location: Pinnacle 1, Rockwall, TX

Updated: 9:03 PM CDT

Temperature: 75.0 °F Dew Point: 68 °F Humidity: 79% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.93 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 76 °F Graphs

Location: Palos Verdes Estates, Mesquite, TX

Updated: 9:03 PM CDT

Temperature: 74.8 °F Dew Point: 68 °F Humidity: 80% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.91 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 75 °F Graphs

Location: Heath, Texas, FM1140, Heath, TX

Updated: 9:03 PM CDT

Temperature: 74.5 °F Dew Point: 69 °F Humidity: 84% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.85 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 74 °F Graphs

Location: Greens - Firewheel, Garland, TX

Updated: 8:58 PM CDT

Temperature: 73.0 °F Dew Point: 68 °F Humidity: 84% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.71 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: 72 °F Graphs

Location: WoodBridge East - Wylie, TX, Wylie, TX

Updated: 8:58 PM CDT

Temperature: 74.9 °F Dew Point: 68 °F Humidity: 78% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.98 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 76 °F Graphs

Location: Stoney Glen, Dallas, TX

Updated: 8:56 PM CDT

Temperature: 76.1 °F Dew Point: 64 °F Humidity: 66% Wind: North at - Pressure: 30.00 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 78 °F Graphs

Location: Firewheel, Garland, TX

Updated: 9:02 PM CDT

Temperature: 76.2 °F Dew Point: 70 °F Humidity: 80% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.90 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 77 °F Graphs

Location: Quail Hollow Estates, Sachse, TX

Updated: 9:02 PM CDT

Temperature: 75.6 °F Dew Point: 66 °F Humidity: 72% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.83 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: 77 °F Graphs

Location: W5FGC North Mesquite, Mesquite, TX

Updated: 9:03 PM CDT

Temperature: 69.3 °F Dew Point: - Humidity: - Wind: Calm Pressure: - Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: - Graphs

Location: Historical Rockwall, Rockwall, TX

Updated: 9:02 PM CDT

Temperature: 73.9 °F Dew Point: 70 °F Humidity: 89% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.68 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 72 °F Graphs

Location: Mesquite (Town East), Mesquite, TX

Updated: 8:50 PM CDT

Temperature: 76.1 °F Dew Point: 70 °F Humidity: 82% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.86 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: 77 °F Graphs

Location: Olivia Lane, Murphy, TX

Updated: 8:56 PM CDT

Temperature: 77.4 °F Dew Point: 71 °F Humidity: 81% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.96 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 79 °F Graphs

Location: Sachse Farms, Sachse, TX

Updated: 8:43 PM CDT

Temperature: 77.9 °F Dew Point: 70 °F Humidity: 81% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.95 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: 80 °F Graphs

MSN Maps of:

Temp: Dew Point: Humidity Wind Pressure Hr Precip -

NWS Forecaster Discussion




Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas 
640 PM CDT Friday may 29 2015 


Update... 
minor update to the afternoon forecast package to reduce probability of precipitation for 
the evening hours...7 PM to 10 PM...and 20 to 30 probability of precipitation for the 
10 PM to 1 am time period. Also reduced cloud coverage over the 
southern and southwestern counties to mostly clear skies for the 
evening. 75 


&& 


Aviation... 


/issued 122 PM CDT Friday may 29 2015/ 
two primary weather features will affect North Texas weather for 
this taf cycle. The first is an upper low currently spiraling 
around the arklatex region. This system brought flooding rains to 
much of the metroplex last night...and continues to produce 
banding features on radar over East Texas. Additional showers 
associated with this feature will remain possible in the Dallas- 
Fort Worth area in the near term...but the current thinking is 
that this activity will move east of the metroplex by sunset. 


A second feature to keep our eyes on is a shortwave trough 
currently dropping southeast through the Southern Plains. This 
system is accompanied by a cold front...and both should bring 
another round of convection overnight tonight. We will introduce 
thunderstorms in the vicinity in the metroplex around 30/05z then include a period of 
prevailing ts Saturday morning. Precipitation should push south 
of the metroplex middle morning Saturday with the front...then 
around middle day at kact. MVFR ceilings and north winds are expected 
Saturday behind the cold front. 


30 




&& 




Previous discussion... /issued 354 PM CDT Friday may 29 2015/ 


Early afternoon water vapor satellite imagery showed a compact 
shortwave trough in place over central Texas. This trough was 
spreading lift/ascent over the eastern half of the County Warning Area as of 
20z/3pm. Regional radars showed scattered storms over areas 
just northeast of the dfw metroplex at 3 PM, out ahead of this 
shortwave trough. Locally calculated convective parameters 
indicate that the thermodynamic environment in which these storms 
are developing is characterized by cape values of around 1,000 
j/kg. Deep layer shear magnitudes were calculated at 35 to 40 
kts. The combination of cape and shear supports a multi-cellular 
storm Mode that may allow for storms producing hail around 1 inch 
in diameter...and microburst winds of 50 to 60 miles per hour. A localized 
heavy rainfall threat is possible as well. Do not expect wide 
spread severe storms or widespread flooding with this thunderstorm 
activity this afternoon...however we will keep a very close eye on 
both possibilities...especially flooding...as it will not take 
much rain to result in flooding today or tonight. 


Expect that the ongoing early afternoon thunderstorm activity will 
tend to move east of the County Warning Area through this evening as the shortwave 
trough continues east...bringing some temporary subsidence in over 
north and central Texas. This shortwave trough is expected to 
continue moving east of the County Warning Area this evening...with subsidence 
moving east out of the area after midnight tonight. Once the 
subsidence is no longer in place over the County Warning Area...another shortwave 
trough is expected to approach...bringing some weak lift back over 
the region early tomorrow morning. 


Once subsidence has exited the region...there are two areas of 
concern we'll be watching closely for new thunderstorm development 
after midnight. The first is thunderstorm activity that is 
expected to develop over the southern High Plains...immediately 
downstream of this second shortwave trough...which was located 
over southwestern Colorado at 20z/3pm. This complex of storms 
appears very likely to develop due to the fact that relatively 
strong lift associated with the Colorado shortwave trough seems 
well handled by model guidance which seems to have the position 
and strength of the shortwave trough well resolved at this time. 
This complex of storms is expected to congeal into a line and move 
southeast along a low-level instability axis which would send the 
linear mesoscale convective system over our southwestern County Warning Area well after midnight tonight. 


The second area of thunderstorms that are expected to develop are 
expected to occur along an east-west oriented line...likely 
associated with an 850 mb frontal zone that is expected to be in 
place anywhere from the Red River to the Interstate 20 corridor 
tonight. The position of this elevated frontal boundary is 
important, because high resolution model guidance indicates that 
new thunderstorm activity will develop on this boundary by 08z/3am 
and then train east along the boundary through sunrise Saturday 
morning. If the boundary is located near the Red River, the 
greatest threat for this zone of training storms would exist south 
of the boundary...to the I-20 corridor...placing another band of 
heavy rainfall over areas that have experienced high end flash 
flooding impacts over the past few days. If the elevated frontal 
zone ends up over the I-20 corridor, the biggest threat for 
training storms and heavy rainfall would be concentrated along and 
south of I-20 to the Waco/Palestine areas. These areas have 
experienced high impact flooding as well over the past week, 
however some of these locations haven't had as much rain and 
flooding over the past day or two. If we get additional heavy 
rainfall anywhere across north or central Texas at this 
point...flooding will probably occur. We are simply too saturated 
to store any additional rainfall anywhere across the region...so 
the Flash Flood Watch will remain in effect until Saturday 
afternoon. 


A couple of things to watch for tonight: most high resolution 
model guidance indicates that this east-west band of heavy 
rainfall/thunderstorms will develop after midnight through 3 am. 
The duration of this rainfall does appear to be tied to the timing 
of the line of storms building in from the southern High Plains. 


If the southern High Plains line of storms moves across the 
southwestern portions of the County Warning Area faster than expected, it will 
likely change the orientation of low-level wind vectors away from 
the 850 mb frontal zone... disrupting the primary mechanism that's 
expected to cause the storms to train along this boundary 
overnight. In short...faster High Plains mesoscale convective system seems to equal a 
lower chance of additional high-impact flooding along and south of 
the 850 frontal zone tonight. 


On the other hand, if the Southern Plains mesoscale convective system is slower...or 
simply does not materialize...convergence and low-level flow into 
the 850 mb frontal zone will be left undisturbed...allowing storms 
to train along this frontal zone from 3 am until 8 or 9 am. With 
rainfall rates of around 1 inch per hour expected...this is 
obviously not the solution that would benefit the region as we 
would likely receive another round of high impact flooding with 
many areas receiving 1-2 inches of rain...with a focused zone of 
3-4 inches or greater likely near the 850 front. 


The current forecast calls for the most likely scenario where 
storms develop along the 850 front between midnight and 3 am...and 
train for a few hours before the southern High Plains mesoscale convective system sweeps 
in and disrupts the low-level flow towards the frontal boundary 
from west to east through 6 am. This would limit the potential 
training along the frontal boundary to a few hours...resulting in 
about half of the "worst case scenario" rainfall totals mentioned 
above. 


We will simply have to watch the mesoscale environment closely 
this evening into the overnight hours to get a better idea of 
which scenario is most likely to pan out. It would be nice if no 
additional thunderstorms develop tonight across the 
region...however that seems very unlikely due to the approach of 
the southwest Colorado shortwave trough. 


The Colorado shortwave trough is not expected to move over the County Warning Area 
until late tomorrow afternoon...so it will continue to spread lift 
over the region through that time on Saturday. Do not expect 
additional rounds of heavy rainfall to develop on Saturday because 
a cold front is expected to push southeast across the County Warning Area from 
northwest to southeast Saturday late morning through early 
afternoon. While additional shower and elevated thunderstorms are 
certainly possible behind the cold front...most of the low-level 
moisture fueling our recent episodes of heavy rain and flooding 
are expected to be advected southeast away from the region behind 
this front. Therefore...any additional shower or thunderstorm 
activity on Saturday is expected to remain unorganized and 
generally light in nature and should not pose anymore threat for 
widespread flooding. 


Sunday through next week...the general pattern seems to shift to a 
somewhat stagnant one where the Colorado upper trough/low stalls 
out over Louisiana or Mississippi on Sunday...keeping the Southern 
Plains in weak ridging and subsidence from Sunday afternoon 
through the first half of next week. If this large scale pattern 
holds true...this should enter the region into at least a short 
term period of dry weather. Most models agree on generally dry 
weather from Sunday afternoon through the first half of next 
week...so hopefully we'll get a chance to dry out as models 
currently advertise. 


Cavanaugh 


&& 






Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 68 80 63 81 63 / 70 70 20 5 5 
Waco, Texas 69 81 64 81 61 / 50 60 40 20 5 
Paris, Texas 65 78 61 78 61 / 80 80 30 5 10 
Denton, Texas 66 79 61 80 59 / 80 80 10 5 5 
McKinney, Texas 66 79 61 79 60 / 80 80 20 5 5 
Dallas, Texas 68 81 63 81 64 / 70 70 30 10 5 
Terrell, Texas 69 81 63 80 62 / 40 60 30 10 5 
Corsicana, Texas 69 81 64 80 63 / 30 60 40 20 5 
Temple, Texas 68 81 64 81 62 / 40 60 40 20 5 
Mineral Wells, Texas 66 78 61 79 59 / 60 60 10 5 5 


&& 


Forward watches/warnings/advisories... 
Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for txz091>095- 
100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175. 




&& 


$$ 


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