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Nowcast

• 

• Now as of 12:16 PM CDT on May 23, 2013

  A few thunderstorms will affect locations between Bonham...Paris and Sulphur Springs through 1 PM. This activity will move southeast at 20 mph and produce periods of moderate to heavy rain...small hail...gusty winds and cloud to ground lightning. Across the rest of North Texas...skies will become partly cloudy this afternoon and temperatures will warm through the 80s with some 90s expected across the west and south.

Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Thursday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 72 °
• Fog

• Friday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 70 °
• Chance of a Thunderstorm

• Saturday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 68 °
• Chance of a Thunderstorm

• Sunday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 68 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Monday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 70 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas 
116 PM CDT Thursday may 23 2013 


Aviation... 
morning MVFR ceilings/visibility continues to improve at all taf 
sites and expect all sites to be VFR by 19z. Scattered cumulus will 
persist through the afternoon with clouds temporarily clearing 
with the loss of surface heating this evening. Expect MVFR to IFR 
conditions to return to all taf sites overnight/Friday morning. 
Conditions should be slightly better Friday morning due to 
stronger surface winds. All low ceilings/fog should lift and 
scatter between 17 and 18z Friday morning. 


Am becoming a bit more concerned about the potential for 
thunderstorms towards morning at the metroplex taf sites as per 
the 06z run of the Texas tech WRF. Am not confident enough to add 
mention of thunder or impacts to this taf package since most of 
the storms should be west of the terminals...but may introduce in 
later updates as new model data becomes available. 


The outflow boundary from storms to the north this morning has 
stalled and winds have turned back to the east/southeast. Expect 
south to southeast winds through Friday morning at speeds between 
6 and 13 knots. 




79 


&& 


Update... 
expanded the morning probability of precipitation southward due to expected continuation 
south of the thunderstorm in southern Oklahoma. This storm should 
slowly weaken with time with the loss of the nocturnal low level jet. 
However...MUCAPES across the area are near 3000 j/kg which could 
keep the activity alive despite the loss in lift. May have to do 
an additional update to place probability of precipitation in the forecast further south 
if the storm continues to hold together. 


Hampshire 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 312 am CDT Thursday may 23 2013/ 
warm advection within the low level southeast flow is increasing dew 
points throughout most of Texas this morning...and low level 
moisture will remain in place for the next several days. A weak 
warm front is located this morning near the Red River and convection is 
starting to form in southern OK. Northwest flow aloft should advect the 
storms over northeastern counties this morning. 


Precipitation forecast over the next few days is quite difficult due 
to model differences in handling the weak forcing and determining 
the locations where storms will occur. The weak ridging over Texas 
is not strong enough to produce a subsidence inversion to cap off 
convection and model pop solutions for our area range from dry to 
storms across much of North Texas. This uncertainty will last through 
the weekend. Should models begin to converge on a solution...the 
low probability of precipitation currently forecast will need to be raised for the areas 
where the precipitation becomes more likely. 


There is some consensus among the guidance which suggests that 
convection will break out near the dry line in West Texas this 
afternoon...with some sort of mesoscale convective system moving south and spreading east 
Thursday evening into the overnight hours. Confidence is higher 
in the southward moving mesoscale convective system than the convection spreading 
east...so I have slight chance probability of precipitation in the forecast. The 
convection may initially affect northwest counties...expanding 
overnight to affect much of the northern half of the North Texas 
area on Friday. 


The process may repeat itself Friday evening...with low probability of precipitation 
lingering in the northern half Saturday and across northern 
counties through Sunday morning...highly dependent on where 
convection does form and evolve into an mesoscale convective system...and what direction 
it moves. 


With south flow continuing through the week...temperatures will 
remain seasonable with afternoon highs in the 80s/90s and morning 
lows in the upper 60s/70s. Afternoon highs are highly dependent 
on where and to what extent convection occurs. 


In the extended...the European model (ecmwf) and GFS suggest that an upper trough 
will move into the Great Basin by Thursday...extending south to 
northern Mexico. This system has the potential to produce 
convection next Thursday and Friday...and I added low probability of precipitation to the 
grids for those two days. 84 






&& 




Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 87 72 86 71 85 / 20 20 20 10 20 
Waco, Texas 90 73 88 69 87 / 10 10 10 10 10 
Paris, Texas 83 68 81 69 82 / 40 20 20 10 20 
Denton, Texas 86 70 84 70 83 / 20 20 20 10 20 
McKinney, Texas 85 70 85 70 84 / 30 20 20 10 20 
Dallas, Texas 87 73 88 72 87 / 20 20 20 10 20 
Terrell, Texas 88 71 87 70 87 / 20 20 20 10 20 
Corsicana, Texas 90 71 89 70 87 / 10 10 10 10 10 
Temple, Texas 90 72 87 69 86 / 10 10 10 10 10 
Mineral Wells, Texas 91 71 86 70 84 / 10 20 20 20 20 


&& 


Forward watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 


&& 


$$ 


79/85