McKinney, Texas Weather Conditions

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Current Conditions

  • 82°
  • Clear
  • Wind: Variable 4 mph
  • Humidity: 52%
  • Visibility: 10.0 miles
  • Dew Point: 63°
  • Pressure: 30.15 in. +
  • Heat Index: 83

Nowcast

  • Now as of 11:11 am CDT on July 29, 2014

    Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms have developed over portions of North Texas. Generally light rain sprinkles with no measurable rainfall can be expected along the I-35 corridor...but just to the west was some heavier activity. This activity was moving southeast around 15 mph. Elsewhere...partly cloudy skies and light northeast winds were observed. Highs today are expected to climb into the 80s.

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Next 12 Hours

1  pm
4  pm
7  pm
10  pm
1  am
Clear
Clear
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Chance of a Thunderstorm
Chance of T-storms
88°
88°
91°
81°
75°
Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

  • Tuesday
  • Partly Cloudy
  • High: 95 °
  • Low: 72 °
  • Partly Cloudy
  • Wednesday
  • Chance of a Thunderstorm
  • High: 91 °
  • Low: 66 °
  • Chance of a Thunderstorm
  • Thursday
  • Chance of a Thunderstorm
  • High: 79 °
  • Low: 63 °
  • Chance of T-Storms
  • Friday
  • Clear
  • High: 84 °
  • Low: 63 °
  • Clear
  • Saturday
  • Partly Cloudy
  • High: 88 °
  • Low: 64 °
  • Partly Cloudy

Forecast for McKinney, Texas

Updated: 10:00 AM CDT on July 29, 2014

  • Tuesday

    Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm and a chance of rain. High of 95F. Winds from the East at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Tuesday Night

    Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm and a chance of rain after midnight. Low of 72F. Winds from the SE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

  • Wednesday

    Overcast with a chance of a thunderstorm and a chance of rain. High of 91F. Winds from the SE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

  • Wednesday Night

    Overcast with a chance of a thunderstorm and a chance of rain, then thunderstorms and rain showers after midnight. Low of 66F. Winds from the ESE at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 60%.

  • Thursday

    Overcast with a chance of a thunderstorm and a chance of rain. High of 79F. Winds from the NE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50%.

  • Thursday Night

    Partly cloudy in the evening, then clear. Low of 63F. Winds from the NNE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Friday

    Clear. High of 84F. Winds from the NNE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Friday Night

    Clear in the evening, then partly cloudy. Low of 63F. Winds from the NNE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Saturday

    Partly cloudy in the morning, then clear. High of 88F. Winds from the NE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Saturday Night

    Clear. Low of 64F. Winds from the ENE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Sunday

    Clear. High of 88F. Winds from the East at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Sunday Night

    Clear. Low of 66F. Winds from the East at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Monday

    Clear. High of 88F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Monday Night

    Clear. Low of 66F. Winds from the ESE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Tuesday

    Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm. High of 90F. Winds from the SSE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

  • Tuesday Night

    Clear. Low of 72F. Winds from the SSE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Wednesday

    Clear. High of 93F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Wednesday Night

    Clear. Low of 72F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Thursday

    Clear. High of 88F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Thursday Night

    Clear. Low of 72F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Friday

    Partly cloudy. High of 88F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Friday Night

    Clear. Low of 72F. Winds less than 5 mph.

Personal Weather Stations

Personal Weather Stations [Add your weather station!]

Location: Tim Warden, McKinney, TX

Updated: 11:46 AM CDT

Temperature: 83.9 °F Dew Point: 68 °F Humidity: 58% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.14 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 87 °F Graphs

Location: Eldorado Ridge, McKinney, TX

Updated: 11:46 AM CDT

Temperature: 86.4 °F Dew Point: 65 °F Humidity: 49% Wind: SSE at 1.0 mph Pressure: 30.16 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 88 °F Graphs

Location: K5BL LIVE WX - El Fenix, McKinney, TX

Updated: 11:46 AM CDT

Temperature: 83.4 °F Dew Point: 64 °F Humidity: 53% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.14 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 85 °F Graphs

Location: Quest Addition, McKinney, TX

Updated: 11:45 AM CDT

Temperature: 81.7 °F Dew Point: 66 °F Humidity: 60% Wind: ENE at 5.0 mph Pressure: 30.16 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 84 °F Graphs

Location: Gwendola Drive - Northwood Park, McKinney, TX

Updated: 11:46 AM CDT

Temperature: 84.4 °F Dew Point: 57 °F Humidity: 39% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.41 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 84 °F Graphs

Location: Oakwood Estates, Fairview, TX

Updated: 11:45 AM CDT

Temperature: 85.9 °F Dew Point: 70 °F Humidity: 57% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.23 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 90 °F Graphs

Location: Shady Glen - McKinney, McKinney, TX

Updated: 11:34 AM CDT

Temperature: 84.9 °F Dew Point: 64 °F Humidity: 50% Wind: SSW at 2.7 mph Pressure: 30.06 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: 86 °F Graphs

Location: JLD Weather Center, McKinney, TX

Updated: 11:46 AM CDT

Temperature: 83.1 °F Dew Point: 64 °F Humidity: 53% Wind: SE at 2.0 mph Pressure: 30.14 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 85 °F Graphs

Location: Vista of Eldorado, McKinney, TX

Updated: 11:46 AM CDT

Temperature: 82.3 °F Dew Point: 68 °F Humidity: 62% Wind: SE at 1.0 mph Pressure: 30.22 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 85 °F Graphs

Location: Bridlegate, Fairview, TX

Updated: 11:46 AM CDT

Temperature: 83.8 °F Dew Point: 66 °F Humidity: 56% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.13 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 86 °F Graphs

Location: Summer Hill Farms, Fairview, TX

Updated: 11:46 AM CDT

Temperature: 84.0 °F Dew Point: - Humidity: 63% Wind: North at - Pressure: - Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 88 °F Graphs

Location: Stacy Ridge Estates 2, Allen, TX

Updated: 11:45 AM CDT

Temperature: 84.3 °F Dew Point: 65 °F Humidity: 53% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.06 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 86 °F Graphs

Location: Chanceller Creek, McKinney, TX

Updated: 11:46 AM CDT

Temperature: 82.9 °F Dew Point: 67 °F Humidity: 59% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.81 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 86 °F Graphs

Location: Amherst Estates - Lucas, TX, Allen, TX

Updated: 11:46 AM CDT

Temperature: 83.5 °F Dew Point: 65 °F Humidity: 53% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.01 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 85 °F Graphs

Location: Thompson Springs, Fairview, TX

Updated: 11:46 AM CDT

Temperature: 86.3 °F Dew Point: 67 °F Humidity: 53% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.96 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 89 °F Graphs

Location: Knightsbridge, McKinney, TX

Updated: 11:46 AM CDT

Temperature: 81.1 °F Dew Point: 66 °F Humidity: 61% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.18 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 83 °F Graphs

Location: Briar Ridge, McKinney, TX

Updated: 11:27 AM CDT

Temperature: 84.7 °F Dew Point: 67 °F Humidity: 56% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.12 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 88 °F Graphs

Location: Timber Ridge, Mckinney, TX

Updated: 11:46 AM CDT

Temperature: 84.2 °F Dew Point: 70 °F Humidity: 62% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.07 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 88 °F Graphs

Location: Lucas Creek, Lucas, TX

Updated: 11:40 AM CDT

Temperature: 89.4 °F Dew Point: 64 °F Humidity: 43% Wind: SSE at 2.9 mph Pressure: 29.59 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 91 °F Graphs

Location: Skywatch McKinney, Mckinney, TX

Updated: 11:46 AM CDT

Temperature: 83.2 °F Dew Point: 65 °F Humidity: 54% Wind: SSE at 2.1 mph Pressure: 30.13 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 85 °F Graphs

Location: Star Creek, Allen, TX

Updated: 11:37 AM CDT

Temperature: 85.0 °F Dew Point: 64 °F Humidity: 50% Wind: WSW at 1.0 mph Pressure: 30.14 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 86 °F Graphs

Location: Allen, TX

Updated: 11:44 AM CDT

Temperature: 85.1 °F Dew Point: 66 °F Humidity: 52% Wind: East at 3.0 mph Pressure: 30.15 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 87 °F Graphs

Location: Country Meadow, Allen, TX

Updated: 11:40 AM CDT

Temperature: 89.2 °F Dew Point: 66 °F Humidity: 46% Wind: East at 2.7 mph Pressure: 30.14 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: 92 °F Graphs

Location: Mckinney, TX

Updated: 11:35 AM CDT

Temperature: 89.1 °F Dew Point: 66 °F Humidity: 47% Wind: ESE at 2.7 mph Pressure: 30.02 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: 92 °F Graphs

Location: Morningside, Allen, TX

Updated: 11:46 AM CDT

Temperature: 84.2 °F Dew Point: 64 °F Humidity: 50% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.07 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 85 °F Graphs

Location: country club/main - ke5fco, Allen, TX

Updated: 11:35 AM CDT

Temperature: 84.2 °F Dew Point: 67 °F Humidity: 56% Wind: ENE at 3.7 mph Pressure: 30.12 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: 87 °F Graphs

Location: Fountain Gate Park, Allen, TX

Updated: 11:46 AM CDT

Temperature: 84.3 °F Dew Point: 64 °F Humidity: 51% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.05 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 86 °F Graphs

Location: Chandler Estates, Lucas, TX, O2 Ranch, TX

Updated: 11:36 AM CDT

Temperature: 83.4 °F Dew Point: 66 °F Humidity: 55% Wind: East at 2.0 mph Pressure: 30.11 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 85 °F Graphs

Location: Waterford Parks / Phase II, Allen, TX

Updated: 11:46 AM CDT

Temperature: 83.3 °F Dew Point: 65 °F Humidity: 55% Wind: SE at 2.0 mph Pressure: 30.10 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 85 °F Graphs

Location: Craig Ranch, McKinney, TX

Updated: 11:34 AM CDT

Temperature: 83.1 °F Dew Point: 64 °F Humidity: 53% Wind: West at 1.7 mph Pressure: 30.08 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: 85 °F Graphs

Location: Parker Lake Estates, Allen, TX

Updated: 11:37 AM CDT

Temperature: 83.5 °F Dew Point: 65 °F Humidity: 53% Wind: ESE at 1.0 mph Pressure: 29.46 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 85 °F Graphs

Location: Blue Iguana @ Bethany/Jupiter, Allen, TX

Updated: 11:46 AM CDT

Temperature: 87.6 °F Dew Point: - Humidity: - Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.11 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: - Graphs

Location: Heritage Park (W5JOU), Allen, TX

Updated: 11:46 AM CDT

Temperature: 84.9 °F Dew Point: 34 °F Humidity: 16% Wind: SE at 4.0 mph Pressure: 29.69 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 82 °F Graphs

Location: Coyote Station, Allen, TX

Updated: 11:45 AM CDT

Temperature: 88.3 °F Dew Point: 59 °F Humidity: 38% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.13 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 88 °F Graphs

Location: Twin Creeks II, Allen, TX

Updated: 11:46 AM CDT

Temperature: 86.5 °F Dew Point: 65 °F Humidity: 49% Wind: SE at 1.6 mph Pressure: 30.12 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 88 °F Graphs

Location: McKinney, TX

Updated: 11:32 AM CDT

Temperature: 80.0 °F Dew Point: 69 °F Humidity: 68% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.12 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: 83 °F Graphs

Location: Estates of Virginia Ridge, McKinney, TX

Updated: 11:45 AM CDT

Temperature: 83.7 °F Dew Point: 64 °F Humidity: 52% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.11 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 85 °F Graphs

MSN Maps of:

Temp: Dew Point: Humidity Wind Pressure Hr Precip -

NWS Forecaster Discussion




Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas 
1137 am CDT Tuesday Jul 29 2014 


Update... 
a surface front has completely cleared the County Warning Area and now stretches 
from West Texas into central Texas. As is typical with shallow 
Summer cold fronts...the 850mb boundary has lagged far behind. It 
currently arcs through the western and southern zones. Lift above 
this height...to the east of the 850mb front...resulted in some 
showers and thunderstorms overnight. The I-35 corridor is deeper 
into the dry air...with cloud bases around 10kft...but a few 
sprinkles of light rain have managed to reach the ground. Dry air 
intruding from the northeast should keep the eastern half of the 
County Warning Area rain-free this afternoon...but cloud cover will persist and 
have reduced high temperatures accordingly. 


The 850mb front will pivot clockwise...stretching from Wichita 
Falls to Temple/Killeen by mid-afternoon. Gentle mechanical lift 
of buoyant air near this level will be aided by unstable surface 
parcels crossing the boundary. With the middle- and upper-level ridge 
axes eroded/displaced to the south...meager subsidence may be 
unable to contain the surface heating that will occur across the 
sunny western zones. This area will be the primary focus for 
afternoon convection. The axis of best instability will be 
southwest of the County Warning Area...but some strong storms will be possible 
along the far western and southern zones. Downburst winds will be 
the primary hazard. 


25 


&& 


Aviation... 
/issued 643 am CDT Tuesday Jul 29 2014/ 
VFR conditions should prevail for all area taf sites during this 
forecast period. Light northeast winds will continue to veer 
towards the southeast by late this afternoon...but wind speeds 
should remain less than 15 kts. 


Despite the radar returns northwest of the metropolitan as of 
1130z...showers are not expected to affect the taf sites this 
morning as dry air should weaken the showers as they approach the 
metroplex. 


Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible today for kact but 
chances remain too low to mention in the taf at this time. 
Additionally...some model guidance suggests a chance of convection 
for the dfw metropolitan taf sites overnight tonight...but like the 
previously mentioned kact rain chances...the confidence in 
convection affecting the taf sites is too low at this time to 
include in the tafs. 


Ajs 




&& 






Previous discussion... /issued 417 am CDT Tuesday Jul 29 2014/ 


08z surface observations showed a stalled out frontal boundary 
along a line extending from College Station to Austin...arcing 
back to the west-northwest towards Midland. Area radar VAD wind 
profiles showed that the 850 mb reflection of this front was 
located somewhere between kfws and kdyx...extending south near 
kgrk radar. Unfortunately the resolution of radar placement is 
such that a more refined position is not possible. Regional radars 
showed little activity early this morning...but there were some 
scattered showers along the Texas Panhandle/Oklahoma border. This 
may be close to the 850 mb front...but it is difficult to say for 
sure. Water vapor satellite imagery continued to show anticyclonic 
flow aloft over much of Texas...however the center of this upper 
ridge appeared to be located near The Big Bend area...moving 
slowly to the west. Northwest flow was observed from the Texas 
Panhandle over North Texas. 


Today...thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast today...mainly 
for locations along and west of the Interstate 35/35w corridor. 
The effects of dry air advection were evident over the dfw 
metroplex and points northeast. Dew points were in the upper 50s 
to lower 60s in these locations early this morning. East to 
northeasterly winds throughout the day today should keep these 
locations dry over the next 12-18 hours as a result of this dry air 
already in place. 


High resolution model guidance continues to advertise the 850 mb 
front as a focus for thunderstorm initiation around sunrise this 
morning. These models show 850 mb flow over west central Texas 
veering around to the southwest...providing some good low-level 
convergence along this front early this morning. Left 30 probability of precipitation in 
the forecast along and west of a Jacksboro to Temple line this 
morning in case this pans out. Most model guidance shows 850 mb 
winds coming back around to the south after sunrise in response to 
better low-level mixing due to heating...and Lee side cyclogenesis 
ramping up later in the day due to a shortwave trough rounding the 
broad ridge axis over the Continental U.S. Rockies. This should bring the 850 
mb front and Theta-E ridge west a bit...and reorient it north to 
south over the western County Warning Area today. 


Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible along and west 
of this boundary...with the best chances remaining west of a line 
from Graham to Gatesville this afternoon. Went ahead and left some 
20-30 probability of precipitation in place from Waco to Palestine and locations south 
because low-level dry air advection never really made it that far 
south...and dew points remain in the lower 70s early this morning. 
Dry air advection will be shut off for central Texas once the 850 
mb front becomes reoriented today...so storms may be possible once 
again during the peak heating hours of the day within this low- 
level moisture Reservoir. As mentioned above...from the dfw area 
northeast...dry air in place will not be helped by any significant 
positive moisture advection today...so these locations should 
remain dry. 


The shortwave trough that is riding along the Continental U.S. Rockies upper 
ridge is expected to move out from over The Rockies and over the 
southern High Plains by sunrise Wednesday morning. The NAM seems 
to have a very good handle on this shortwave trough...which was 
fairly well defined over northern Arizona on 08z water vapor 
satellite imagery...moving north towards Utah. In response to this 
trough...Lee side cyclogenesis is expected to move from 
southeastern Colorado out over the Texas Panhandle through Wednesday 
morning. The 850 mb front will move east while becoming 
reoriented from west to east over Oklahoma Wednesday afternoon. 


For North Texas...most model guidance indicates that this 
boundary will move from west to east over the County Warning Area from late 
tonight through Wednesday morning. Precipitation chances along 
this retreating front are not that great because the low-level 
atmosphere is really just reorganizing for the northern Arizona 
shortwave trough and associated surface low pressure system 
developing over the High Plains. Even though the front is 
moving over the County Warning Area...the low-level flow regime favors 
frontolysis...so there is really no significant forcing for ascent 
associated with this boundary. The change in low-level wind 
direction will result in some fairly substantial positive moisture 
advection...but this by itself does not guarantee any 
precipitation will develop over the County Warning Area. At any rate...left some 
small precipitation chances in the forecast along the axis of best 
positive moisture return...as moisture convergence may offer just 
enough lift to result in some isolated to scattered rain showers 
and thunderstorms along and north of the Interstate 20 corridor 
from tonight through Wednesday morning. 


The primary focus for precipitation over the next 24 to 36 hours 
will be over the High Plains of eastern New Mexico and Colorado as 
positive moisture advection interacts with orographic lift. By 
Wednesday morning...the retreating front will likely be well 
defined from the High Plains extending east-southeast over 
Oklahoma and should be a secondary focus for very good rainfall 
chances and heavy rainfall. The primary forecast challenge after 
Wednesday afternoon will be the evolution of the low pressure 
system as the northern Arizona shortwave moves east-southeast from 
Colorado out over the High Plains through Wednesday evening. 


Most guidance shows that as the shortwave trough moves off the 
High Plains it will move east-southeast...from the Texas Panhandle 
and then over southern Oklahoma Wednesday evening. Models show a 
concentration of high quantitative precipitation forecast over the intersection of the path of 
this upper trough...and the 850 mb frontal boundary on Wednesday. 
This makes sense as this is where low and upper level forcing for 
ascent overlap with very deep moisture. However the consensus of 
model guidance also shows the surface low moving east-southeast 
dragging the front south towards the Red-River Wednesday night. 


Models keep a significant amount of quantitative precipitation forecast Wednesday night along and 
north of the front...which appears to be largely dominated by 
neutral to negative Theta-E advection...and resides in what should 
be subsidence northwest of the upper trough. The models fairly 
consistently have the 850 mb Theta-E ridge over the northeastern 
portions of the County Warning Area extending into northeast Texas. Models also 
advertise this area...northeast of the dfw metroplex...to have 
precipitable waters  in excess of 2 inches with good low-level convergence. If 
the model mass fields are correct...it would seem like that the 
Wednesday night heavy rainfall axis should slide south of where 
raw model output is showing its bulls-eye of quantitative precipitation forecast. As a 
result...went ahead and bumped probability of precipitation up to 80 percent northeast of 
the metroplex Wednesday night and mentioned heavy rainfall in the 
worded forecast as model quantitative precipitation forecast seems misplaced...at least in the 12 
hour window from Wednesday night to Thursday morning. 


There are things the model may be resolving that are not evident 
in the mass fields at this point. Convective feedback in model 
output is generally regarded as bad...however long-lived latent 
heat release can result in the diabatic creation of a middle-level 
low pressure system that can displace moisture and convergence 
fields. This does not appear to be the case...but it is something 
that happens during long-lived precipitation events...and it is 
very likely to rain heavily for many hours along the 850 mb front 
across Oklahoma during the day on Wednesday. Unfortunately we will 
not know if a strong middle-level low pressure system develops from 
this precipitation until Wednesday afternoon...so at this time 
just sided with the model mass fields which indicate a heavy 
rainfall event is possible for the northeastern County Warning Area Wednesday 
night. If models trend in the direction of heavy rain shifting 
south Wednesday night...a Flash Flood Watch may be necessary 
northeast of the dfw area in later forecasts. 


Behind the upper trough...the surface low is expected to move 
east-southeast over Louisiana by Thursday afternoon...dragging the 
now cold front south across the entire County Warning Area during the day on 
Thursday. While this would normally seem like a good scenario for 
a widespread rainfall event for North Texas...model guidance 
strongly suggests that it is not. Unfortunately as the surface low 
pulls away to the east-southeast...models are in strong agreement 
that strong 700 mb subsidence pushes over the County Warning Area from northwest 
to southeast on Thursday. This should result in an abrupt end to 
precipitation from northwest to southeast along the cold front on 
Thursday. 


Unfortunately if this pans out...much of the dfw area may miss 
out on any heavy rainfall associated with this storm system 
because the middle-level subsidence builds in quickly starting late 
Thursday morning. On Thursday...the best chances for thunderstorms 
along the cold front likely reside over the far southeastern 
County Warning Area...or those locations farthest removed from the middle-level 
subsidence. For those following along looking at model data...just 
look at 700 mb relative humidity forecasts to track this middle-level 
subsidence...it was very easy to see on 29/00z model guidance. The 
best chance for the dfw area to receive heavy rainfall is if the 
surface low and 850 mb front sink much farther south than 
currently expected. If this occurs...the dfw area could get into 
some of the heavier precipitation amounts Wednesday night. This 
does not look likely right now...but wednesdays prolonged rainfall 
event over Oklahoma may change the strength of the cold air behind 
the front...pushing it farther south than expected for Wednesday 
night. 


Friday through early next week...assuming the strong middle-level 
subsidence is correct in the models...the remainder of the 
forecast should be dry. Temperatures will remain below normal 
behind thursdays front...but will moderate back up to normal 
levels by early next week due to persistent sunshine through the 
weekend. 


Cavanaugh 








&& 




Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 88 75 90 73 81 / 10 20 20 40 30 
Waco, Texas 89 73 97 75 89 / 20 10 10 10 30 
Paris, Texas 90 70 80 67 76 / 10 30 40 80 50 
Denton, Texas 86 72 87 71 81 / 20 30 20 50 40 
McKinney, Texas 88 72 84 70 80 / 10 30 30 60 50 
Dallas, Texas 88 75 90 73 81 / 10 20 20 40 30 
Terrell, Texas 89 73 87 72 79 / 10 20 20 50 40 
Corsicana, Texas 88 73 93 74 84 / 10 10 20 20 40 
Temple, Texas 91 71 97 74 90 / 30 20 10 10 40 
Mineral Wells, Texas 86 72 96 71 83 / 40 20 20 20 20 


&& 


Forward watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 


&& 


$$ 


92/25 










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