Little Elm, Texas Weather Conditions

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Current Conditions

  • 86°
  • Clear
  • Wind: South 10 mph
  • Humidity: 61%
  • Visibility: 10.0 miles
  • Dew Point: 71°
  • Pressure: 29.95 in. +
  • Heat Index: 92

Nowcast

  • Now as of 11:37 am CDT on September 2, 2014

    Late this morning...isolated showers were noted generally across portions of falls...Robertson...Limestone...and Leon counties. This activity was generally moving towards the north at around 10 to 15 mph. Otherwise...skies ranged from partly to mostly sunny across much of north and central Texas. Temperatures were in the upper 80s with southerly winds of around 10 to 15 mph. Through early afternoon...isolated showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible...primarily along and south of a Lampasas to Hillsboro to Athens line. A few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two may drift into portions of extreme northeast Texas along the Red River near Honey Grove and Paris. Any thunderstorm this afternoon will be capable of producing brief periods of heavy rain...cloud to ground lightning...and gusty winds. Otherwise..skies should range between partly and mostly cloudy. Temperatures should climb through the mid to upper 90s with southerly winds of 10 to 20 mph.

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Next 12 Hours

1  pm
4  pm
7  pm
10  pm
1  am
Clear
Clear
Clear
Clear
Clear
Clear
Clear
Clear
Clear
Clear
93°
95°
93°
88°
82°
Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

  • Tuesday
  • Clear
  • High: 97 °
  • Low: 77 °
  • Clear
  • Wednesday
  • Partly Cloudy
  • High: 95 °
  • Low: 73 °
  • Partly Cloudy
  • Thursday
  • Partly Cloudy
  • High: 95 °
  • Low: 73 °
  • Partly Cloudy
  • Friday
  • Clear
  • High: 95 °
  • Low: 72 °
  • Clear
  • Saturday
  • Chance of a Thunderstorm
  • High: 93 °
  • Low: 72 °
  • Chance of a Thunderstorm

Forecast for Little Elm, Texas

Updated: 10:00 AM CDT on September 02, 2014

  • Tuesday

    Partly cloudy in the morning, then clear. High of 97F. Winds from the South at 10 to 15 mph.

  • Tuesday Night

    Clear. Low of 77F. Winds from the SSE at 10 to 15 mph.

  • Wednesday

    Partly cloudy. High of 95F. Winds from the South at 10 to 15 mph.

  • Wednesday Night

    Clear. Low of 73F. Breezy. Winds from the South at 10 to 20 mph.

  • Thursday

    Partly cloudy. High of 95F. Winds from the South at 10 to 15 mph.

  • Thursday Night

    Clear in the evening, then partly cloudy. Low of 73F. Winds from the SSE at 5 to 15 mph.

  • Friday

    Partly cloudy. High of 95F. Winds from the South at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Friday Night

    Partly cloudy in the evening, then clear. Low of 72F. Winds from the SSE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Saturday

    Clear in the morning, then partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm and rain. High of 93F. Winds from the South at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

  • Saturday Night

    Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm. Low of 72F. Winds from the East at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

  • Sunday

    Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm. High of 91F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

  • Sunday Night

    Clear with a chance of a thunderstorm. Low of 72F. Winds from the SE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

  • Monday

    Clear. High of 93F. Winds from the SSE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Monday Night

    Clear. Low of 72F. Winds from the SSE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Tuesday

    Partly cloudy. High of 93F. Winds from the South at 10 to 15 mph.

  • Tuesday Night

    Partly cloudy. Low of 73F. Winds from the SSE at 5 to 15 mph.

  • Wednesday

    Clear. High of 93F. Winds from the South at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Wednesday Night

    Clear with a chance of a thunderstorm. Low of 73F. Winds from the SSE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

  • Thursday

    Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm. High of 93F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 50%.

  • Thursday Night

    Mostly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm. Low of 73F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 60% with rainfall amounts near 0.5 in. possible.

  • Friday

    Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm. High of 93F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

  • Friday Night

    Clear. Low of 73F. Winds less than 5 mph.

Personal Weather Stations

Personal Weather Stations [Add your weather station!]

Location: W. Park St., Little Elm, TX

Updated: 11:42 AM CDT

Temperature: 91.9 °F Dew Point: 74 °F Humidity: 57% Wind: West at 5.4 mph Pressure: 29.91 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 102 °F Graphs

Location: Paloma Creek South, Little Elm, TX

Updated: 11:42 AM CDT

Temperature: 93.9 °F Dew Point: 69 °F Humidity: 45% Wind: SW at 4.6 mph Pressure: 29.44 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 100 °F Graphs

Location: Cross Oak Ranch, Cross Roads, TX

Updated: 11:33 AM CDT

Temperature: 89.2 °F Dew Point: 75 °F Humidity: 63% Wind: East at 7.3 mph Pressure: 29.95 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: 99 °F Graphs

Location: Dallas Corinthian YC, Oak Point (NE Shore Lake Dallas), TX

Updated: 11:42 AM CDT

Temperature: 86.8 °F Dew Point: 74 °F Humidity: 65% Wind: SSW at 5.6 mph Pressure: 29.97 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 95 °F Graphs

Location: Cedar Pine Lane, Oak Point, TX

Updated: 11:42 AM CDT

Temperature: 89.0 °F Dew Point: 73 °F Humidity: 61% Wind: SW at 4.0 mph Pressure: 30.02 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 98 °F Graphs

Location: The Shores, Lakewood Village, TX

Updated: 11:42 AM CDT

Temperature: 88.3 °F Dew Point: 75 °F Humidity: 64% Wind: SSE at 1.0 mph Pressure: 29.95 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 98 °F Graphs

Location: WB8GRS - Little Elm, TX, WB8GRS, Little Elm, TX

Updated: 11:42 AM CDT

Temperature: 90.9 °F Dew Point: 74 °F Humidity: 57% Wind: ESE at 6.0 mph Pressure: 29.93 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 100 °F Graphs

Location: Eldorado Estates, Little Elm, TX

Updated: 11:41 AM CDT

Temperature: 89.2 °F Dew Point: 74 °F Humidity: 61% Wind: SSW at 2.0 mph Pressure: 29.94 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 98 °F Graphs

Location: Providence Village, Providence Village, TX

Updated: 11:40 AM CDT

Temperature: 94.5 °F Dew Point: 75 °F Humidity: 54% Wind: ENE at 3.7 mph Pressure: 29.82 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: 107 °F Graphs

Location: Westfalls Village, Frisco, TX

Updated: 11:42 AM CDT

Temperature: 89.7 °F Dew Point: 74 °F Humidity: 60% Wind: ESE at 1.7 mph Pressure: 29.98 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 99 °F Graphs

Location: Providence, Aubrey, TX

Updated: 11:42 AM CDT

Temperature: 88.4 °F Dew Point: 72 °F Humidity: 58% Wind: SE at 8.0 mph Pressure: 29.93 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 95 °F Graphs

Location: The Tribute / The Glen, The Colony, TX

Updated: 11:42 AM CDT

Temperature: 88.9 °F Dew Point: 74 °F Humidity: 61% Wind: NNW at 3.0 mph Pressure: 29.94 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 98 °F Graphs

Location: Heritage Village-Phase II, Frisco, TX

Updated: 11:42 AM CDT

Temperature: 92.7 °F Dew Point: 75 °F Humidity: 56% Wind: SSW at 3.0 mph Pressure: 29.92 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 104 °F Graphs

Location: Heather Ridge Estates, Frisco, TX

Updated: 11:37 AM CDT

Temperature: 91.2 °F Dew Point: 75 °F Humidity: 59% Wind: ENE at 1.0 mph Pressure: 30.04 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 102 °F Graphs

Location: Hidden Valley Airpark, Shady Shores, TX

Updated: 11:15 AM CDT

Temperature: 87.8 °F Dew Point: 74 °F Humidity: 64% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.91 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 97 °F Graphs

Location: Fairview, CORINTH, TX

Updated: 11:12 AM CDT

Temperature: 108.9 °F Dew Point: 80 °F Humidity: 41% Wind: Calm Pressure: 28.33 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: 134 °F Graphs

Location: Toyota Stadium, Frisco, TX

Updated: 11:32 AM CDT

Temperature: 87.7 °F Dew Point: 74 °F Humidity: 63% Wind: SSW at 10.0 mph Pressure: 29.94 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: 96 °F Graphs

Location: Fairview Farms, Krugerville, TX

Updated: 11:39 AM CDT

Temperature: 88.5 °F Dew Point: 74 °F Humidity: 63% Wind: SE at 5.0 mph Pressure: 29.97 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 98 °F Graphs

Location: Corinth, Corinth, TX

Updated: 11:42 AM CDT

Temperature: 88.6 °F Dew Point: 69 °F Humidity: 53% Wind: South at 1.0 mph Pressure: 29.89 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 93 °F Graphs

Location: Frisco Eubanks C1010, Frisco, TX

Updated: 10:50 AM CDT

Temperature: 82.2 °F Dew Point: - Humidity: - Wind: North at - Pressure: - Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: - Graphs

Location: Meadow Hill Estates, Frisco, TX

Updated: 11:32 AM CDT

Temperature: 87.0 °F Dew Point: 73 °F Humidity: 64% Wind: NW at 8.0 mph Pressure: 29.97 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: 95 °F Graphs

Location: Lakeslide Estates, Lewisville, TX

Updated: 11:42 AM CDT

Temperature: 88.2 °F Dew Point: 74 °F Humidity: 64% Wind: SW at 6.0 mph Pressure: 29.94 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 98 °F Graphs

Location: Hickory Springs, Frisco, TX

Updated: 11:42 AM CDT

Temperature: 97.0 °F Dew Point: 74 °F Humidity: 50% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.97 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 110 °F Graphs

Location: Oakmont II Estates, Denton, TX

Updated: 11:16 AM CDT

Temperature: 89.2 °F Dew Point: 74 °F Humidity: 60% Wind: ESE at 3.2 mph Pressure: 29.89 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: 98 °F Graphs

Location: Highland Village, Highland Village, TX

Updated: 11:42 AM CDT

Temperature: 89.3 °F Dew Point: 74 °F Humidity: 61% Wind: SSW at 4.0 mph Pressure: 29.91 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 99 °F Graphs

Location: Stonebrook, Frisco, TX

Updated: 11:40 AM CDT

Temperature: 86.5 °F Dew Point: 73 °F Humidity: 64% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.03 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 94 °F Graphs

Location: Creekside at Preston, Frisco, TX

Updated: 11:42 AM CDT

Temperature: 88.2 °F Dew Point: 73 °F Humidity: 62% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.98 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 97 °F Graphs

Location: Netatmo Pi Wx Station, Frisco, TX

Updated: 11:40 AM CDT

Temperature: 81.5 °F Dew Point: 71 °F Humidity: 70% Wind: North at - Pressure: 30.07 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 86 °F Graphs

Location: Highland Shores, Highland Village, TX

Updated: 11:42 AM CDT

Temperature: 88.1 °F Dew Point: 73 °F Humidity: 62% Wind: WSW at 5.0 mph Pressure: 29.94 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 96 °F Graphs

Location: Queens Gate, Frisco, TX

Updated: 11:42 AM CDT

Temperature: 89.5 °F Dew Point: 70 °F Humidity: 52% Wind: West at 5.0 mph Pressure: 29.58 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.41 in Heat Index: 95 °F Graphs

Location: 445 Ranch, Argyle, TX

Updated: 11:37 AM CDT

Temperature: 90.0 °F Dew Point: 73 °F Humidity: 58% Wind: South at 6.3 mph Pressure: 29.68 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: 99 °F Graphs

Location: Highland Shores 1, Highland Village, TX

Updated: 11:42 AM CDT

Temperature: 88.5 °F Dew Point: 73 °F Humidity: 61% Wind: South at 2.0 mph Pressure: 30.01 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 97 °F Graphs

Location: Highland Shores 2, Highland Village, TX

Updated: 11:42 AM CDT

Temperature: 89.1 °F Dew Point: 73 °F Humidity: 59% Wind: South at 2.0 mph Pressure: 29.98 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 97 °F Graphs

MSN Maps of:

Temp: Dew Point: Humidity Wind Pressure Hr Precip -

NWS Forecaster Discussion




Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas 
1117 am CDT Tuesday Sep 2 2014 


Update... 
we will let the current forecast ride the rest of the afternoon. 
Convection across southeast Oklahoma is moving south but showing 
signs of weakening. Do expect some activity to make it into the 
Red River valley near Paris by 1 PM before dying off. The activity 
developing over the southeast counties is very spotty at the 
moment but should increase in coverage and spread farther north 
during the afternoon. Late morning temperatures look good but will update 
the hourly grids to better match current warming trends. 75 


&& 


Aviation... 
/issued 626 am CDT Tuesday Sep 2 2014/ 
/12z tafs/ 


Scattered stratus is spreading north across the region this 
morning with most of the stratus located east of the taf sites 
again. Expect the ceilings to generally remain scattered this morning 
but may briefly report broken ceilings at times through 14-15z. This 
afternoon...there are low chances for convection around the kact 
area but confidence in impacts at the Airport are too low to 
include a mention in the taf at this time. Otherwise...VFR will 
prevail through the period with wind speeds of 10-15 kts. 
Scattered stratus is expected again Tuesday night but is not Worth 
a mention in the tafs at this time. 


82/jld 




&& 






Previous discussion... /issued 401 am CDT Tuesday Sep 2 2014/ 


08z/3am regional radar derived winds (vad winds) indicated a 35 knots 
low level jet in place extending from central Texas north to the 
OK/Kansas border. A frontal boundary was in place along the Kansas/OK 
border as indicated by surface observations...and numerous 
thunderstorms were active along the front at the time of this 
discussion per regional radar imagery. 00z upper air analysis 
continued to show upper level ridging over much of Texas at the 
500 mb level...and the 00z forward radiosonde observation showed a Stout middle-level cap 
in place over the County Warning Area as a result of persistent subsidence 
associated with this upper level ridge. Infrared and water vapor 
satellite imagery continued to track an area of organized 
thunderstorm activity over the Bay of Campeche. Overnight the 
National Hurricane Center upgraded this activity to tropical storm 
strength...so we officially have Tropical Storm Dolly...which was 
moving to the northwest early this morning. 


Today...there are a couple of features to watch today that may 
bring thunderstorms across parts of north and central Texas. The 
first is the thunderstorm activity ongoing along the OK/Kansas border 
this morning...and the second is a surge of moisture associated 
with Dolly moving northwest later today. 


For this morning...high resolution models are indicating that the 
thunderstorm activity along the OK/Kansas border will start to become 
strongly influenced by propagation and move south right around 
sunrise. This is assuming that this thunderstorm complex can 
become organized enough for its cold pool to move this line of 
storms in a new direction this morning. 


..this next paragraph is an explanation of those factors that 
dictate storm motion and really does not contribute to the 
forecast...it is included to help provide insight/understanding 
for those interested. You can skip this next paragraph to 
continue on with the forecast discussion... 


In a basic sense...the movement of thunderstorm systems is 
controlled by the average of the winds aloft...often referred to 
as the steering winds. In most cases...thunderstorms will simply 
move in the direction in which the winds aloft are blowing. 
However the second component to consider is often referred to as 
the propagation component of storm motion. Propagation influences 
storm motion by changing the direction of motion of a thunderstorm 
system in the direction that new thunderstorms develop. This is 
the more complicated factor to understand...but in general...new 
thunderstorms tend to develop in the opposite direction of the low 
level jet. On a day like today...where the steering winds are 
somewhat light due to upper level ridging over Texas...but the 
low-level jet is relatively strong...the propagation component can 
dominate the direction in which the thunderstorm system moves. For 
today...the steering winds are somewhat light and would indicate 
an easterly storm motion. This is why the storms are just sort of 
sitting there along the front as of 3 am. However if this results 
in a strong enough cold pool (a collection of rain cooled air) 
this cold pool could start to surge south...causing new storms to 
develop in the opposite direction of the low-level jet. Since the 
low-level jet extends from our County Warning Area to the front...the whole 
complex of storms could start to move south directly towards the 
Red River...but will still move at least slightly to the east due 
to the steering winds aloft. This is a dramatic shift in direction 
from what storms have been doing overnight...but it makes sense in 
the context of what was described above. 


The Main Point of uncertainty this morning is: will 
thunderstorms become organized enough to move as a system? 


That is largely unknown because just looking at the storms on 
radar is not enough to determine how strong the cold pool will 
get...but the fact that the hrrr and the Texas tech WRF both 
advertise a dramatic shift to the south of thunderstorms towards 
the Red River around sunrise gives confidence in this solution. 
Went ahead and placed a very small area of 20 probability of precipitation in the forecast 
from just north of Sherman extending to the southeast including 
much of Lamar County. If the storms do move to the south as these 
high resolution models indicate...they will be in their 
dissipating stages by the time they cross the Red River well 
after sunrise this morning...so no strong or severe weather is 
expected at this time. 


This afternoon...models continue to consistently show a surge of 
tropical moisture to the northwest from the Texas Gulf Coast this 
afternoon. This surge of moisture appears to be associated with a 
subtle but important middle-level wind shift associated with Dolly 
moving northwest towards the northern Mexico Gulf Coast. This 
deeper tropical moisture is expected to remain south of the 
Interstate 20 corridor this afternoon...so reoriented probability of precipitation a bit 
to highlight the southern half of the County Warning Area. In general...there is 
still no obvious lift...so the coverage of storms will probably be 
isolated in nature...and left probability of precipitation at the 20 percent level for now. 


Wednesday through Friday...Dolly is expected to make landfall over 
northern Mexico late this evening...and then continue off to the 
west-northwest through the end of the week. Models seem to send 
the deeper middle-level tropical moisture plume to the west with 
Dolly...so went ahead and removed probability of precipitation from the forecast on 
Wednesday afternoon across the southern County Warning Area and left the remainder 
of the forecast dry. Weak upper level ridging is the dominant 
feature during this time frame...so expect subsidence to win out 
in keeping things dry across north and central Texas. 


This weekend...models continue to hint at a cold front moving 
south of the Red River sometime Saturday afternoon through Sunday 
morning. Models still seem to indicate that the primary reason 
that the front makes it south of the Red River is due to 
persistent thunderstorm activity along the front late this week. 
If the frontal motion is really dependent upon persistent 
thunderstorm activity...confidence in the timing and placement of 
the front is going to remain low until late this week. 


The biggest reason for optimism in the front making it this far 
south is observing what happens today. If mesoscale convective system activity from the 
OK/Kansas border actually surges south this morning...it becomes easy 
to see how persistent storms to our north can send a strong 
outflow boundary/front across North Texas under weak ridging 
aloft. The front is most likely to be in place over the County Warning Area on 
Sunday...so left probability of precipitation mainly along and north of Interstate 20 on 
Saturday...and kept them broad brushed over the entire County Warning Area on 
Sunday. 


Early next week...the front...assuming it makes it here this 
weekend...will probably dissipate by Monday. Because the front 
does not represent a true airmass replacement...that is...there is 
no Canadian/or significantly cool air to the north of this 
front...it will undergo frontolysis and lose definition quickly 
under ridging aloft. Left the forecast for early next week dry as 
a result. 


Cavanaugh 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 97 77 96 77 96 / 5 5 5 5 0 
Waco, Texas 98 75 97 74 97 / 20 20 10 5 5 
Paris, Texas 92 72 91 72 92 / 20 10 5 5 0 
Denton, Texas 96 75 95 74 95 / 10 5 5 0 0 
McKinney, Texas 95 74 94 74 94 / 10 5 5 5 0 
Dallas, Texas 97 78 96 78 96 / 5 5 5 5 0 
Terrell, Texas 96 76 96 75 96 / 10 10 5 5 0 
Corsicana, Texas 97 76 96 75 96 / 20 20 10 5 5 
Temple, Texas 98 72 97 73 97 / 20 20 10 5 5 
Mineral Wells, Texas 97 73 96 72 96 / 5 5 5 0 0 


&& 


Forward watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 


&& 


$$ 


/75 










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