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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 90 °
• Low: 72 °
• Chance of a Thunderstorm

• Thursday
• 
• High: 95 °
• Low: 70 °
• Clear

• Friday
• 
• High: 93 °
• Low: 70 °
• Clear

• Saturday
• 
• High: 97 °
• Low: 73 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Sunday
• 
• High: 90 °
• Low: 72 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas 
1116 am CDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013 


Update... 
a weak...diffused frontal boundary has lifted over the western County Warning Area 
and now extends from near Breckenridge southeast to south of 
Palestine. Expect this boundary to aid in focusing development 
this afternoon along and north of the front. The mesoscale convective system off to the 
northwest had held together fairly well this morning...especially 
on its southern end. The system should be able to move into the 
western County Warning Area counties of Young and Stephens as early as 2 PM. 
Although our atmosphere is unstable with good middle level lapse 
rates and cape values generally better than 1800 j/kg...the mesoscale convective system 
will be moving into an environment of decreasing bulk shear which 
will limit the potential for rotating updrafts. Cape values alone 
suggest some marginally severe hail and a potential for 40-50 miles per hour 
downburst winds. 75 


&& 


Aviation... 
/12z tafs/ 


MVFR conds prevail over a good portion of North Texas with visible 
generally around 5sm. There are some areas of dense fog primarily 
in the lower valleys but this should stay out of the major 
airports through middle morning. Will prevail VFR conds in the 
metroplex...although an amend or two may be needed if visible drops 
further than anticipated. 


A complex of thunderstorms continues to move southeast across 
western Oklahoma. These storms are likely to weaken in intensity 
as they approach so no mention of precipitation in the current forecast. 
South winds around 10kt expected through the period. Dunn 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 318 am CDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013/ 
the only major forecasting challenge with this package will be 
patchy fog in the eastern zones this morning and thunderstorm 
chances today. 


Light wind and damp ground across East Texas and the eastern 
portions of North Texas will result in patchy fog through middle 
morning today. It appears that most of the dense fog should be in 
East Texas but a few North Texas locations may briefly fall to 1/2 
mile visibility. By 11 am...any fog that did develop will have 
dissipated. 


A complex of storms...currently across western Oklahoma and the 
Panhandle...will continue moving southeast through the early 
morning hours. Cloud tops in the southern portion of the complex 
have been warming over the past couple of hours and this trend 
will likely continue. The hrrr seems to have the most reasonable 
solution of all models based on radar trends over the last few 
hours so will follow it fairly closely. Therefore...expect most of 
the West Texas activity to dissipate before reaching the 
northwest zones around middle morning...but will leave 20 probability of precipitation in to 
account for any shower or storm that manages to hold together. By 
this afternoon...a few showers or storms may develop across the 
region as temperatures warm into the 90s and some left over 
boundaries provide a focus for lift. Any storms that do develop 
should be disorganized pulse storms due to the weak sheared and 
weak flow environment expected. 


Any showers or storms that do develop this afternoon will dissipate with 
the loss of surface heating and increasing large scale subsidence 
from a building upper level ridge. The upper ridge will become the 
dominant weather feature across the region Thursday through early 
next week. The good news is that the ridge will never become 
extremely strong and as a result afternoon high temperatures 
should not be too much warmer than seasonal normals. Expect 
afternoon highs through early next week generally in the lower and 
middle 90s and lows mostly in the 70s. 79 


&& 




Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 93 74 94 75 96 / 20 10 0 0 0 
Waco, Texas 94 72 94 73 95 / 20 10 0 0 0 
Paris, Texas 91 70 92 71 94 / 20 10 5 0 5 
Denton, Texas 93 71 94 72 96 / 20 10 0 0 0 
McKinney, Texas 91 69 93 70 94 / 20 10 5 0 0 
Dallas, Texas 93 75 94 76 95 / 20 10 0 0 0 
Terrell, Texas 92 71 93 72 94 / 20 10 5 0 5 
Corsicana, Texas 93 72 93 73 94 / 30 10 5 0 0 
Temple, Texas 93 71 93 72 94 / 20 10 0 0 0 
Mineral Wells, Texas 93 70 94 71 96 / 30 5 0 0 0 


&& 


Forward watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 


&& 


$$ 


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