Little Elm, Texas Weather Conditions

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Current Conditions

  • 84°
  • Scattered Clouds
  • Wind: NNW 7 mph
  • Humidity: 70%
  • Visibility: 13.0 miles
  • Dew Point: 73°
  • Pressure: 30.13 in. +
  • Heat Index: 91

Nowcast

  • Now as of 9:02 am CDT on July 28, 2014

    A line of rain showers was positioned along a line from Gainesville to Jacksboro at 9 am. These showers are located behind a cold front that is currently positioned south of the Interstate 20 corridor. Additional showers and isolated storms will be possible north of the front throughout the morning as it continues to push southward. Elsewhere...skies will be partly to mostly cloudy to the north of the front and mostly clear to the south. Temperatures across the area are in the upper 70s and low 80s and will warm to the upper 80s and low 90s by noon.

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Next 12 Hours

10  am
1  pm
4  pm
7  pm
10  pm
Chance of a Thunderstorm
Chance of T-storms
Chance of a Thunderstorm
Chance of T-storms
Chance of a Thunderstorm
Chance of T-storms
Chance of a Thunderstorm
Chance of T-storms
Chance of a Thunderstorm
Chance of T-storms
82°
91°
91°
95°
88°
Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

  • Monday
  • Chance of a Thunderstorm
  • High: 95 °
  • Low: 72 °
  • Chance of T-Storms
  • Tuesday
  • Chance of a Thunderstorm
  • High: 91 °
  • Low: 72 °
  • Chance of a Thunderstorm
  • Wednesday
  • Chance of a Thunderstorm
  • High: 90 °
  • Low: 70 °
  • Chance of T-Storms
  • Thursday
  • Mostly Cloudy
  • High: 86 °
  • Low: 68 °
  • Mostly Cloudy
  • Friday
  • Partly Cloudy
  • High: 84 °
  • Low: 64 °
  • Partly Cloudy

Forecast for Little Elm, Texas

Updated: 10:00 AM CDT on July 28, 2014

  • Monday

    Mostly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm and a chance of rain. High of 95F. Winds from the NE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

  • Monday Night

    Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm and a chance of rain. Low of 72F. Winds from the ENE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

  • Tuesday

    Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm and a chance of rain. High of 91F. Winds from the ESE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

  • Tuesday Night

    Mostly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm and a chance of rain after midnight. Low of 72F. Winds from the SE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

  • Wednesday

    Mostly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm and a chance of rain. High of 90F. Winds from the SSE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

  • Wednesday Night

    Overcast with a chance of a thunderstorm and a chance of rain in the evening, then mostly cloudy. Low of 70F. Winds from the ESE at 10 to 15 mph.

  • Thursday

    Overcast. High of 86F. Winds from the ESE at 5 to 10 mph shifting to the NNE in the afternoon.

  • Thursday Night

    Overcast in the evening, then partly cloudy. Low of 68F. Winds from the NNE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Friday

    Mostly cloudy. High of 84F. Winds from the NNE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Friday Night

    Clear. Low of 64F. Winds from the NE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Saturday

    Partly cloudy. High of 84F. Winds from the NE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Saturday Night

    Partly cloudy. Low of 68F. Winds from the NE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Sunday

    Clear. High of 91F. Winds from the NE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Sunday Night

    Clear with a chance of a thunderstorm. Low of 66F. Winds from the ENE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

  • Monday

    Partly cloudy. High of 91F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Monday Night

    Clear. Low of 68F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Tuesday

    Clear. High of 91F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Tuesday Night

    Clear. Low of 70F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Wednesday

    Clear. High of 91F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Wednesday Night

    Clear. Low of 72F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Thursday

    Clear. High of 88F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Thursday Night

    Clear. Low of 72F. Winds less than 5 mph.

Personal Weather Stations

Personal Weather Stations [Add your weather station!]

Location: W. Park St., Little Elm, TX

Updated: 9:21 AM CDT

Temperature: 85.1 °F Dew Point: 70 °F Humidity: 60% Wind: East at 4.5 mph Pressure: 30.05 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 89 °F Graphs

Location: Paloma Creek South, Little Elm, TX

Updated: 9:21 AM CDT

Temperature: 84.6 °F Dew Point: 67 °F Humidity: 55% Wind: NE at 2.3 mph Pressure: 29.56 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 87 °F Graphs

Location: Cedar Pine Lane, Oak Point, TX

Updated: 9:21 AM CDT

Temperature: 82.0 °F Dew Point: 68 °F Humidity: 64% Wind: NNW at 3.0 mph Pressure: 30.17 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 85 °F Graphs

Location: The Shores, Lakewood Village, TX

Updated: 9:21 AM CDT

Temperature: 81.9 °F Dew Point: 69 °F Humidity: 66% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.09 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 85 °F Graphs

Location: WB8GRS, Little Elm, TX

Updated: 9:21 AM CDT

Temperature: 83.6 °F Dew Point: 70 °F Humidity: 63% Wind: NE at 4.0 mph Pressure: 30.07 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 88 °F Graphs

Location: Eldorado Estates, Little Elm, TX

Updated: 9:19 AM CDT

Temperature: 83.6 °F Dew Point: 70 °F Humidity: 64% Wind: ENE at 3.0 mph Pressure: 30.07 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 88 °F Graphs

Location: Providence Village, Providence Village, TX

Updated: 9:14 AM CDT

Temperature: 82.2 °F Dew Point: 70 °F Humidity: 67% Wind: North at 4.2 mph Pressure: 30.04 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: 86 °F Graphs

Location: Westfalls Village, Frisco, TX

Updated: 9:21 AM CDT

Temperature: 83.1 °F Dew Point: 70 °F Humidity: 65% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.11 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 87 °F Graphs

Location: Providence, Aubrey, TX

Updated: 9:21 AM CDT

Temperature: 82.0 °F Dew Point: 67 °F Humidity: 61% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.08 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 85 °F Graphs

Location: The Tribute / The Glen, The Colony, TX

Updated: 9:13 AM CDT

Temperature: 82.8 °F Dew Point: 70 °F Humidity: 65% Wind: NE at 6.0 mph Pressure: 30.07 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 87 °F Graphs

Location: Heritage Village-Phase II, Frisco, TX

Updated: 9:21 AM CDT

Temperature: 83.7 °F Dew Point: 71 °F Humidity: 65% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.05 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 88 °F Graphs

Location: Heather Ridge Estates, Frisco, TX

Updated: 9:06 AM CDT

Temperature: 83.7 °F Dew Point: 71 °F Humidity: 66% Wind: NNW at 3.0 mph Pressure: 30.16 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 89 °F Graphs

Location: Hidden Valley Airpark, Shady Shores, TX

Updated: 9:12 AM CDT

Temperature: 81.8 °F Dew Point: 70 °F Humidity: 68% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.06 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 86 °F Graphs

Location: Toyota Stadium, Frisco, TX

Updated: 9:15 AM CDT

Temperature: 83.3 °F Dew Point: 71 °F Humidity: 66% Wind: NE at 7.0 mph Pressure: 30.07 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: 88 °F Graphs

Location: Fairview Farms, Krugerville, TX

Updated: 9:17 AM CDT

Temperature: 82.2 °F Dew Point: 69 °F Humidity: 64% Wind: NE at 3.0 mph Pressure: 30.12 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 86 °F Graphs

Location: Corinth, Corinth, TX

Updated: 9:21 AM CDT

Temperature: 82.6 °F Dew Point: 65 °F Humidity: 56% Wind: NNW at 6.0 mph Pressure: 30.03 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 85 °F Graphs

Location: Meadow Hill Estates, Frisco, TX

Updated: 9:15 AM CDT

Temperature: 82.5 °F Dew Point: 71 °F Humidity: 68% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.09 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: 87 °F Graphs

Location: Lakeslide Estates, Lewisville, TX

Updated: 9:21 AM CDT

Temperature: 83.7 °F Dew Point: 70 °F Humidity: 63% Wind: East at 4.0 mph Pressure: 30.08 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 88 °F Graphs

Location: Oakmont II Estates, Denton, TX

Updated: 9:09 AM CDT

Temperature: 83.1 °F Dew Point: 69 °F Humidity: 62% Wind: NE at 4.7 mph Pressure: 30.05 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: 87 °F Graphs

Location: Highland Village, Highland Village, TX

Updated: 9:21 AM CDT

Temperature: 84.1 °F Dew Point: 69 °F Humidity: 61% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.06 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 88 °F Graphs

Location: Stonebrook, Frisco, TX

Updated: 9:21 AM CDT

Temperature: 82.4 °F Dew Point: 69 °F Humidity: 65% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.15 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 86 °F Graphs

Location: Creekside at Preston, Frisco, TX

Updated: 9:21 AM CDT

Temperature: 83.5 °F Dew Point: 70 °F Humidity: 63% Wind: NE at 5.0 mph Pressure: 30.09 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 87 °F Graphs

Location: Netatmo Pi Wx Station, Frisco, TX

Updated: 9:20 AM CDT

Temperature: 79.9 °F Dew Point: 69 °F Humidity: 68% Wind: North at - Pressure: 30.20 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 83 °F Graphs

Location: Highland Shores, Highland Village, TX

Updated: 9:21 AM CDT

Temperature: 83.8 °F Dew Point: 70 °F Humidity: 64% Wind: NE at 2.0 mph Pressure: 30.09 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 88 °F Graphs

Location: Queens Gate, Frisco, TX

Updated: 9:21 AM CDT

Temperature: 85.3 °F Dew Point: 66 °F Humidity: 52% Wind: NW at 5.0 mph Pressure: 29.71 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 87 °F Graphs

Location: 445 Ranch, Argyle, TX

Updated: 9:10 AM CDT

Temperature: 84.2 °F Dew Point: 71 °F Humidity: 64% Wind: NNW at 4.2 mph Pressure: 29.84 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: 89 °F Graphs

Location: Highland Shores 1, Highland Village, TX

Updated: 9:21 AM CDT

Temperature: 84.4 °F Dew Point: 70 °F Humidity: 62% Wind: NNW at 2.0 mph Pressure: 30.16 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 89 °F Graphs

MSN Maps of:

Temp: Dew Point: Humidity Wind Pressure Hr Precip -

NWS Forecaster Discussion




Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas 
701 am CDT Monday Jul 28 2014 


Aviation... 
multiple concerns are in play during this forecast period. 
However... VFR conditions are still expected to prevail. 


Frontal passage has already begun for the dfw metropolitan taf sites and should 
push through all metropolitan taf sites within the next hour. Behind the 
front...north winds between 5 and 10 kts are expected. Scattered 
showers with isolated thunderstorms were present behind the front 
and located along the Red River. This activity was drifting 
southward around 7 kts. Kept mention of vcsh for the dfw metropolitan for 
early this afternoon as instability will be present but not 
abundant. 


For kact...frontal passage is expected later this morning...around 15z. 
Afternoon cape values are forecast to be around 2000 j/kg and 
steep middle- level lapse rates are also expected. With the surface 
front expected to stall out over central Texas and the added 
affect of daytime heating...afternoon convection is possible. Have 
put thunderstorms in the vicinity in for a few hours this afternoon for Waco because 
coverage should not be widespread. Gusty winds...heavy 
rainfall...and frequent lightning are possible with any convection 
that develops. 


Ajs 


&& 




Previous discussion... /issued 404 am CDT Monday Jul 28 2014/ 


08z surface analysis showed a cold front moving slowly south 
across the Red River. The front was located near a line from 
Lubbock to Bowie to Sherman at the time of analysis. Regional 
radars showed scattered showers and thunderstorms north of the 
front...moving south at 5 to 10 miles per hour. 00z upper air analysis showed 
that upper level ridging once again strengthened over North Texas 
over the last 24 hours. Early morning water vapor satellite imagery 
indicates that the upper level ridge is likely breaking down early 
this morning...and reorganizing west of the County Warning Area. Expect to see 500 
mb height falls of 3 to 4 dm on the 12z forward radiosonde observation this morning with 
the ridge weakening and moving west of the County Warning Area. 


Today...expect that scattered showers and thunderstorms will 
continue to develop north of the slow moving cold front through 
the middle-morning hours of the day today. Expect that the front will 
be located south of the dfw area by this time...so maintained 30 
probability of precipitation for this morning for locations generally along and north of a 
line from Cisco to Athens. 


The front is expected to continue south into central Texas for 
this afternoon. From the middle-morning hours to the middle-afternoon 
hours...there will probably be a lull in thunderstorm activity as 
the best lift for elevated thunderstorms becomes disrupted by 
daytime heating. This is expected to occur as heating promotes 
better low-level mixing...and dry air entrains into the saturated 
layer around 800 to 750 mb where forecast soundings indicate very 
little lift is needed for air to reach its level of free 
convection early this morning. Once the elevated Reservoir of 
thunderstorm initiation is interrupted...new thunderstorm 
development will likely have to wait for the peak heating hours of 
the day for surface based air parcels to be heated up enough for 
air to be lifted above the cap by the weak forcing associated with 
the front. 


Surface based storms appear to be most likely along and just 
north of the surface cold front this afternoon. The frontal 
boundary represents a layer of only shallow cool air...and almost 
all guidance indicates that deeper moisture is available for 
storms north of the front...rather than along or south of the 
front. Either way...the shallow frontal inversion will likely mix 
out leaving only a wind-shift line defining the leading edge of 
the front during the peak heating hours of the day. Models 
consistently show the highest precipitable water values north of the front 
across central Texas this afternoon...so went ahead and bumped 
probability of precipitation up to 40 percent centered along a line from Comanche to Waco 
to Palestine this afternoon. 


Precipitable waters  are forecast to be in the neighborhood of 2 inches...so 
brief heavy rainfall and gusty outflow winds are the primary 
thunderstorm hazards aside from the lightning threat present with 
any thunderstorm activity. 


Despite storms more likely to occur north of the front...as long 
as the shallow frontal inversion mixes out as expected...forecast 
soundings still advertise an inverted-v low-level 
profile...indicative of storms capable of producing microbursts. 
Severe/damaging winds should not be common due to a somewhat 
meager Theta-E difference with height in the atmosphere limiting 
the strength of cold pool accelerations. Regardless...steep low 
level lapse rates will allow for wind gusts in the 40-50 miles per hour 
range...which is strong enough to cause light...localized damage. 


Storm motions are prognosticated to be slow this afternoon...however a 
widespread flooding threat is not expected as storms will still 
produce outflow boundaries that should promote storms to move away 
from any one location with propagation likely dominating storm 
motions. 


Tonight...models are fairly consistent now in advertising 
northeasterly flow bringing cool and dry air into the County Warning Area 
beginning this afternoon...continuing through the overnight hours. 
This should cause any lingering thunderstorm activity east of 
Interstate 35 to diminish fairly quickly after sunset. Models are 
now also consistently showing an 850 mb Theta-E ridge holding up 
over west central Texas...and over the western portion of the County Warning Area 
tonight into tomorrow. This Theta-E ridge may become active again 
overnight...with a similar coverage of storms to what we are 
seeing north of the Red River at the time of this forecast 
discussion. 


Coverage and placement of storms will be determined by the 
orientation of low level flow to the west of this Theta-E ridge. 
If winds become southwesterly to the west of this feature...more 
storms are likely due to enhanced low-level convergence. If winds 
remain southerly...convergence will be shunted more to the 
west...leaving the County Warning Area with lower thunderstorm chances and 
coverage. Just maintained 20-30 probability of precipitation overnight west of Interstate 
35/35w for now without higher confidence in which scenario will 
pan out. East of Interstate 35 should be dry...all guidance 
supports this...so left the forecast dry for these locations. 


Tuesday...model guidance indicates that an 850 mb anti-cyclone 
will move southeast from Oklahoma over towards Louisiana from 
tonight into Tuesday afternoon. This will cause the transport of 
dry cool air in from the northeast to be interrupted as low-level 
flow veers around to the east and eventually southeast by Tuesday 
night. This will allow the low-level Theta-E ridge to build slowly 
eastward from west central Texas back over the County Warning Area Tuesday through 
Tuesday night. During the day on Tuesday...most model guidance 
indicates that the Theta-E ridge will remain west of Interstate 
35/35w so went ahead and kept the highest probability of precipitation over those 
locations as surface based storms are most likely within this area 
during the peak heating hours of the day. The Theta-E ridge is 
expected to advect north overnight and become re-established over 
the northeastern County Warning Area by sunrise Wednesday morning. Overnight 
thunderstorm activity is most likely within this Theta-E 
ridge...so transitioned probability of precipitation to match the model placement of this 
feature overnight. 


The low-level Theta-E ridge is mentioned a lot here because it is 
the easiest way to track our best precipitation chances associated 
with the front stalling out...becoming reoriented and changing in 
characteristics between a cold to stationary to warm front from 
today through Wednesday. Instead of changing the name of the 
front several times...the Theta-E ridge can be used as a proxy 
for the best precipitation chances associated with the front and 
is easy to refer to as one thing throughout the forecast. 


By Wednesday...the low-level Theta-E ridge is expected to remain 
stationary along the Red River...but dipping southeast over the 
northeastern County Warning Area towards Shreveport. Guidance continues to show 
that upper level troughing will dominate the eastern Continental U.S. By 
Wednesday with upper level ridging over the southwestern Continental U.S.. 
this leaves the South Plains in northwest flow aloft. Models have 
been showing a shortwave trough in this flow regime headed over 
the area sometime between Wednesday and Thursday. The consensus of 
yesterday evenings models now indicate that this shortwave will 
move over the northern portions of North Texas during the day on 
Wednesday. This feature is actually track-able on water vapor 
satellite imagery now as well...making for a higher confidence 
forecast in general. This shortwave was over Baja California California at 
the time of this discussion. 


With the Theta-E ridge/front in place as mentioned above...the 
forcing for ascent induced by the shortwave trough should give US 
our best precipitation chances for this week. Went ahead with 40 
to 60 probability of precipitation for locations along and northeast of a line from Bowie 
to McKinney to Emory on Wednesday and Wednesday night as a result. 
Locally heavy rainfall looks much more likely for these areas as 
precipitable waters  are expected to be in excess of 2 inches during this time 
frame...and a nearly stationary Theta-E ridge interacting with 
forcing should promote a good coverage of storms. A Flood Watch is 
not expected at this time...but we will have to monitor to see if 
mesoscale/smaller scale forecast details dictate a more 
widespread flooding event in later forecasts. For now it looks 
like the threat of any flooding will tend to be localized in 
nature. 


The Theta-E ridge/front is expected to slide south across North 
Texas on Thursday...and kept widespread 30-50 probability of precipitation in place as a 
result. With so much going on before this front begins to move 
again on Thursday...will not get into the details of this forecast 
period as widespread thunderstorm activity over the northeastern 
County Warning Area will probably change things quite a bit in later forecasts. 


Precipitation chances will continue to diminish behind the front 
on Friday...with model consensus showing much drier conditions 
over the region by Saturday. Left 20 probability of precipitation in the forecast for 
Friday...with a dry forecast for next weekend into early next week 
as a result. Temperatures will likely be unseasonably cool across 
the area Thursday and Friday...warming back up towards normal by 
early next week with drier air and mostly sunny skies in place. 


Cavanaugh 


&& 






Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 94 75 93 74 94 / 30 20 20 20 20 
Waco, Texas 97 75 92 73 97 / 40 30 20 10 10 
Paris, Texas 91 68 87 70 80 / 40 10 10 30 50 
Denton, Texas 93 71 90 72 93 / 40 20 20 20 30 
McKinney, Texas 95 70 93 72 92 / 40 10 10 20 30 
Dallas, Texas 95 76 93 75 94 / 30 20 20 20 20 
Terrell, Texas 96 73 95 74 93 / 30 20 10 20 20 
Corsicana, Texas 95 74 95 73 95 / 40 20 10 20 10 
Temple, Texas 98 73 93 72 97 / 40 30 20 10 10 
Mineral Wells, Texas 93 72 91 71 96 / 30 30 30 20 20 


&& 


Forward watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 


&& 


$$ 


/ 



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