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Nowcast

• 

• Now as of 9:00 PM CDT on May 24, 2013

  Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across parts of North Texas through late this evening. A cluster of thunderstorms currently extending from Groesbeck to Corsicana will continue to move northwest with another cluster of storms extending from near Dallas to Gainesville. Moderate to heavy rainfall and frequent cloud to ground lightning will be the main threats with these storms through tonight. Be especially cautious of low lying areas at night which can quickly become flooded in heavy rainfall.

Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Saturday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 70 °
• Chance of a Thunderstorm

• Sunday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 68 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Monday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 66 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 66 °
• Overcast

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 70 °
• Chance of Rain

Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas 
700 PM CDT Friday may 24 2013 


Aviation... 
at 645 PM...an area of numerous showers and thunderstorms 
extended from 20 miles west of Decatur /klud/ to just west of 
Fort Worth Spinks /kfws/ to Hearne /klhb/ and westward for about 
60 miles. These showers and thunderstorms will continue to move 
northwest this evening and decrease in areal coverage later this 
evening. Have kept a tempo thunderstorms and rain at kact through 02z...and placed 
a thunderstorms in the vicinity in kgky and kftw for the 00-02z period. Although low 
chances of showers and thunderstorms will continue at all of the 
taf sites overnight into Saturday morning...the chances are too 
low to mention in the tafs. May have to extend the thunderstorms 
chances farther northeast...later into the evening if this 
activity holds together. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are 
expected to develop by Saturday afternoon...so have placed thunderstorms in the vicinity in 
the Waco and metroplex taf sites after 19z Saturday. 


58 


&& 


Update... 
updated the probability of precipitation for 00-06z time frame to account for current 
radar trends. Outflow boundary from the large complex of storms 
continues to push east...allowing new development of storms along 
the boundary. A couple of severe storms developed in hill and 
Johnson counties...where winds in excess of 60 miles per hour were likely. This 
new development to the east should become less likely after 
sunset...when activity should start to wane. Will carry likely probability of precipitation 
for much of the western area...with chance probability of precipitation farther east. 


Hampshire 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 348 PM CDT Friday may 24 2013/ 


12z upper air analysis showed a well-defined middle-level low 
pressure system near San Angelo this morning. Visible satellite 
imagery and regional radars indicate that this low was moving 
slowly to the northeast this afternoon with a nearly solid band of 
showers and thunderstorms extending from Breckenridge South 
through Austin on its eastern edge. According to a 19z aircraft 
sounding around the dfw area the atmosphere remains largely 
uncapped this afternoon with 1500 to 2500 j/kg of cape available 
for storm growth. 


Through tonight....aside from the middle-level low moving towards 
the County Warning Area...the larger scale flow regime aloft over North Texas is 
anticyclonic flow in weak ridging in place over the region. This 
has left a moderate cape/very low shear environment in place over 
North Texas which is more of a rain pattern we see in the Summer 
months. Due to the very weak shear in place and little cap...think 
a single cell to multicell storm Mode will continue through the 
evening hours with a marginal severe weather threat in the form of 
hail up to quarter size and downburst winds of 60 miles per hour. Locally 
heavy rainfall may end up being the biggest hazard wherever storms 
train over any one location for a couple of hours. The threat for 
heavy rain and flooding is expected to remain localized through 
this evening and will not be issuing any flood or Flash Flood 
Watch with this forecast package. With the loss of daytime 
heating...most high resolution guidance agrees in a sharp downward 
trend to the coverage and intensity of storms associated with the 
middle-level low. 


Saturday...the middle-level low pressure system may be enhanced by 
this afternoon and this evenings thunderstorm activity ongoing 
across western counties of north and central Texas. Because the middle- 
level low was created by thunderstorm activity yesterday...it 
seems reasonable to assume that this feature will remain at least 
as strong as it was today and should support some thunderstorm 
chances across North Texas tomorrow. As a result left in a mention of 
thunderstorms across all of North Texas through tomorrow evening. At 
this time left precipitation chances at 20 percent because the 
middle-level low may be right on top of the County Warning Area...where subsidence 
and poor middle-level lapse rates are likely to reside. The middle-level 
low is warm core...and does not contribute to destabilizing the 
atmosphere as a result. With generally cloudy skies associated 
with the low and weaker middle-level lapse rates...instability is 
expected to be much weaker than it was today across North Texas which 
will likely limit the amount of thunderstorm activity that we see. 
Still cannot rule out isolated storms across the County Warning Area...especially 
during the peak heating hours of the day. With many outdoor 
activities likely to be ongoing during the start of Memorial Day 
weekend...isolated storms producing lightning and locally gusty 
winds can still be hazardous and should be taken seriously. This 
is especially true if you happen to have plans out on area lakes 
and reservoirs this weekend. 


Sunday and Monday...the middle-level low is expected to meander east 
in weak ridging aloft leaving subsidence in place over North Texas. 
Subsidence should help get rid of the 70s dew points we have had 
in place the past several days...although we will remain warm 
under mostly sunny skies. With slightly drier air in 
place...expect Monday to be a few degrees warmer than Sunday to 
finish off Memorial Day weekend. Chances for thunderstorms look 
low for now assuming subsidence does its job in drying out the 
lower troposphere and placing a capping inversion over the region. 


Mid-week...for Tuesday and Wednesday...the GFS and European model (ecmwf) agree 
that we transition to southwest flow aloft as a large upper trough 
builds over the western Continental U.S.. the large trough out west is 
somewhat complex and composed of several large shortwaves...but at 
least through Wednesday it seems that model consensus keep the 
bulk of this strong energy north of the region. Southwest flow 
aloft usually advects a Stout elevated mixed layer over the 
region...and this is expected to help keep US dry through 
Wednesday despite the resurgence of strong southerly low-level 
flow and good Gulf moisture return. 


On Thursday...went ahead and reintroduced 20 probability of precipitation into the 
forecast because the European model (ecmwf) has been consistent in bringing a 
strong shortwave trough over the South Plains. The GFS does not 
support this...but in general has offered a wider spread of 
solutions regarding this upper trough when compared to the European model (ecmwf). 
While that does not guarantee the European model (ecmwf) will verify...at this 
point wanted to side with the more consistent solution which would 
bring a good chance of storms back into North Texas late next week. 
Should this verify...some severe storms would be possible but it 
is much too far out to worry about that right now. When confidence 
in the large scale flow is low...confidence in smaller scale 
details like severe storm hazards is extremely low. Will continue 
to watch late next week in future forecasts. 


Cavanaugh 








&& 




Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 70 84 69 86 70 / 40 20 20 5 5 
Waco, Texas 70 84 68 88 70 / 60 20 20 5 0 
Paris, Texas 65 84 67 84 67 / 20 20 20 10 5 
Denton, Texas 68 83 67 86 70 / 50 20 10 5 5 
McKinney, Texas 69 85 68 86 68 / 30 20 20 5 5 
Dallas, Texas 73 87 72 88 70 / 40 20 20 5 0 
Terrell, Texas 70 87 69 88 68 / 20 20 20 5 0 
Corsicana, Texas 70 85 69 88 69 / 40 20 20 5 0 
Temple, Texas 69 83 68 86 70 / 60 20 20 5 0 
Mineral Wells, Texas 67 82 67 87 69 / 60 20 10 5 0 


&& 


Forward watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 


&& 


$$ 


58/85