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Nowcast

• 

• Now as of 9:13 am CDT on May 25, 2013

  Showers and isolated thunderstorms this morning are occurring west of a line from Jacksboro to Waco to Franklin. This activity is slowly spreading east and we will continue to see an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity throughout the day. Lightning and locally heavy rainfall will be the main threats this morning. Rainfall totals through noon will average up to a quarter of an inch with isolated higher amounts. Otherwise...it will remain cloudy and humid with temperatures in the 70s for most of the morning hours.

Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Saturday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 70 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Sunday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 66 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Monday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 70 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 68 °
• Mostly Cloudy

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 72 °
• Mostly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas 
631 am CDT Sat may 25 2013 


Aviation... 


The weak upper low over the region will again result in areas of 
rain showers/thunderstorms and rain throughout the day. Radar mosaic shows this activity 
currently from the kaus/ksat area northward to the Red River. As 
the day progresses expect convection to increase in coverage with 
some affecting the taf sites mainly this afternoon. As the upper 
low moves farther northeast tonight...some activity will linger 
over the area but it should be mostly -ra after 26/03z. 


Airport operations will be affected by lightning strikes...wet 
runways and reductions in ceilings and visible during convection. Kdfw 
operations should expect an Airport weather warning to be issued 
later today as lightning nears the Airport. 


For this taf cycle...MVFR ceilings are on going at kact but they 
should arrive at the metroplex airports 13-14z. Ceilings will lift 
to VFR by late morning. MVFR ceilings will return to kdfw late tonight 
around 26/09z and should end around 26/16z. 75 


&& 




Previous discussion... /issued 347 am CDT Sat may 25 2013/ 
radar/satellite loop indicates that the weak middle level low is 
likely located near Abilene and 00z 500mb analysis confirms it is 
warm-core in nature. As is often the case with warm-core 
lows...convection is firing before sunrise across The Hill 
Country within a weak low level jet axis where Theta-E advection 
and orographic lift are occurring. Short-term models such as the 
hrrr and RUC suggest that scattered convection will continue to 
expand northward from central Texas into the western zones during 
the morning hours. The GFS appears to be suffering from grid scale 
convective feedback which is resulting in very high quantitative precipitation forecast and 
contaminated mass fields...thus the GFS will not be used in the 
short-term. The NAM seems to be matching current trends and short- 
term models well and therefore it gives confidence to raise probability of precipitation 
today. We expect the best coverage of convection in the western 
zones this morning. Scattered convection will build/expand 
eastward into the eastern zones during the midday/afternoon hours. 
The airmass over the eastern zones will be a bit more unstable due 
to better insolation and a couple of strong storms with gusty 
winds will be possible...but due to weak shear the severe threat 
is low. Highs today in the western zones will only be in the upper 
70s to low 80s due to clouds/rain...with highs in the eastern 
zones reaching the middle 80s. Scattered convection will continue 
into the evening hours before dissipating with loss of heating. 


The warm core middle level low will be exiting the region to the 
northeast tonight...and therefore the rain chances will come to an 
end. Expect a dry Sunday with temperatures rebounding into the 
middle-upper 80s area wide. As an upper level trough develops across 
the inter-mountain west...a surface low will deepen in the High 
Plains Monday. This will bring breezy south winds to the region 
Monday which will likely persist through the week. Low temperatures will 
warm into the 70s area wide by midweek with highs generally in the 
middle 80s east to low 90s west. The southwest flow above the 
surface will bring a thermal inversion into the area. Thus the 
forecast looks dry unless/until forcing arrives to weaken the cap. 


Model guidance remains in poor to fair agreement regarding the 
evolution/ejection of the West Coast upper trough middle-late week. 
The European model (ecmwf) continues to show a very negatively tilted trough 
swinging through the region late Wednesday and Thursday which 
would Bode well for rain. But it continues to be the only model 
that shows the trough ejection like this...and frankly the 500mb 
pattern it presents just does not look realistic. If it were not 
for the European model (ecmwf) being the better of the long range models...I would 
discount it altogether and show a dry forecast on Thursday...but 
for now have retained the slight chance probability of precipitation. The GFS/UKMET/Gem 
forecasts show that the upper energy needed to break the cap will 
likely remain well northwest of the region. Furthermore...the 
dryline also looks like it will remain too far to the west...with 
the GFS showing it as far west as the Texas Panhandle. Storm motions 
will generally be northeast and this means storms would not even 
have a chance to propagate into the County Warning Area either. So in summary the 
rain chances on Thursday at this point are hinging on the European model (ecmwf) 
being correct...and this may be a bit of a long shot. 


Tr.92 


&& 




Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 84 69 87 69 87 / 40 30 10 5 0 
Waco, Texas 83 68 87 68 89 / 50 30 10 5 0 
Paris, Texas 83 67 85 66 85 / 30 30 10 5 0 
Denton, Texas 84 67 86 68 87 / 40 30 10 5 0 
McKinney, Texas 84 67 85 68 87 / 30 30 10 5 0 
Dallas, Texas 85 71 87 70 89 / 30 30 10 5 0 
Terrell, Texas 84 67 86 68 88 / 30 30 10 5 0 
Corsicana, Texas 84 67 88 68 89 / 30 30 10 5 0 
Temple, Texas 82 67 87 68 88 / 50 20 10 5 0 
Mineral Wells, Texas 81 66 87 67 89 / 40 20 10 5 0 


&& 


Forward watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 


&& 


$$ 


75/