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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Monday
• 
• High: 91 °
• Low: 73 °
• Chance of a Thunderstorm

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 81 °
• Low: 66 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 68 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Thursday
• 
• High: 90 °
• Low: 72 °
• Chance of a Thunderstorm

• Friday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 70 °
• Chance of T-Storms

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas 
718 PM CDT sun may 19 2013 


Aviation... 


For the 00z tafs...thunderstorm chances and timing the onset of 
MVFR stratus are the primary forecast concerns through the valid 
forecast period. 


Thunderstorm chances...went ahead and left thunderstorms out of 
the metroplex area tafs for this evening based largely on 
satellite observations. The latest rap forecast soundings 
indicated that the cap over the dfw area would erode by 02z 
possibly resulting in thunderstorms near area taf sites. Visible 
satellite imagery indicates flat cumulus clouds while infrared satellite 
images show cloud top temperatures holding steady at the time of 
this discussion. Early results from the 00z forward radiosonde observation indicate a 
substantial cap remains in place over the metroplex...however an 
aircraft sounding taking off from kdal did indicate a weaker cap. 
Either way...a cap remains in place and in the absence of strong 
lift...do not see a reason for storms to initiate near area taf 
sites this evening or overnight. 


For tomorrow...an upper level disturbance over Utah is expected to 
move towards the region over the next 24 to 36 hours. This will 
result in better upper level support and lift along the dryline by 
late tomorrow afternoon resulting in a higher confidence forecast 
for thunderstorms. Storms that develop along the dryline would 
likely not reach the metroplex until after 23z or 6 PM CDT. Went 
ahead with a mention of thunderstorms in the vicinity in all metroplex area tafs after this 
time due to the higher confidence in the close proximity of 
storms. A capping inversion is expected to remain in place over 
the metroplex tomorrow afternoon...so its difficult to know 
whether storms will be able to overcome this cap or not to move 
directly over area taf sites. Either way...the storms are expected 
to be close enough to cause traffic headaches at area airports so 
the thunderstorms in the vicinity is in the forecast for planning purposes more than 
anything else at this point. 


MVFR stratus...no changes made to the previous forecast. We will 
once again have a strong low-level jet of 50 kts or greater over 
North Texas tonight. This should result in a similar stratus timing 
to this morning where stratus built over metroplex taf sites after 
11z. Stratus should scatter out or lift to VFR levels quickly with 
drier air above the stratus deck above the cap. 


Cavanaugh 




&& 




Previous discussion... /issued 328 PM CDT sun may 19 2013/ 
the dryline has reached a line from Wichita Falls to Graham to 
Brownwood where it will likely stall before retreating west this 
evening. The main forecast concern through this evening is 
whether storms will initiate along the dryline and the amount of 
coverage. As discussed in the morning update...most of the model 
guidance is not initiating any convection in our region this 
evening despite cin becoming almost negligible across the western 
zones. However the RUC/hrrr/GFS have not wavered and one of the 
hi-res wrfs at 12z has now joined the initiation Camp. The issue 
at hand is likely that today/S strong winds and dry air aloft will 
make it tough for an infant updraft to become established and 
grow into a supercell without a shortwave to aid in lift. Right 
now the best guess is that 1 to 3 storms will manage to develop 
over the western County Warning Area by early evening...and will continue the 
forecast of 20-30 probability of precipitation west of a line from Sherman to dfw to 
Lampasas. Local objective analysis indicates cape values are from 
2000-3000 j/kg over the County Warning Area and ample deep layer shear exists to 
support very large hail and damaging winds. An isolated tornado 
will be possible between 6 and 8 PM when low level wind shear 
ramps up just before the surface airmass becomes too negatively 
buoyant with loss of heating. Storms may hold together long enough 
to affect locations farther to the east by middle-late 
evening...especially north of I-20...but severe weather potential 
will be diminishing. Otherwise a breezy and muggy night is in 
store for the region. 


The storm threat for Monday is looking greater across a larger 
part of North Texas. The cin will be even weaker than today and 
almost all of the models are indicating storm initiation in the 
County Warning Area. The dryline will be roughly in the same location as it is 
today. The GFS and NAM are most aggressive with height falls and 
convection across the northwest County Warning Area...which raises confidence that this 
area will likely see supercell storms and severe weather. Expect 
several supercells to develop across the western zones...including 
some isolated cells across the SW zones. Very high instability 
and ample deep layer shear will support a threat of significant 
severe weather including giant hail...damaging winds and a few 
tornadoes. Low level wind shear gets stronger after 7pm with 0-3km 
srh values above 300 m2/s2. Since there is less cin there is more 
time for evening supercells to tap into this instability after 
dark which is what is raising our concern for tornadoes. Have 
bumped up probability of precipitation to 30-50 percent in the western zones...and 
raised them for the central and northeast zones as well...as 
supercells will head eastward and hold together longer. 


On Tuesday a weak cold front will become draped across the County Warning Area 
from roughly Paris to dfw to Eastland. High temperatures will be a little 
cooler this day...but instability will still be very high 
especially across the southern zones. All model guidance shows 
strong upper level forcing over North Texas Tuesday afternoon as 
the trough axis swings through the area. This will set the stage 
for scattered to numerous showers and storms that will likely 
develop along the front Tuesday afternoon and move east and 
southeast into the nighttime hours. Since low level wind fields 
relax a bit...these storms may tend to organize into a mesoscale convective system/squall 
line over the central zones. Obviously a severe weather threat 
will exist with this convective episode as well. Rainfall will 
range from a trace in the northwest to 1.5 inches in the southeast zones. 
Expect this convective episode to finally exhaust the atmosphere 
and push the best moisture and instability southeast of the area 
by Wednesday morning. Will keep Wednesday dry. 


Weak ridging sets up over the area Wednesday and into next 
weekend. Southeast winds will continue which will keep low temperatures 
in the middle 60s to near 70...and highs in the middle 80s to near 90 
each day. Convection is expected to occur over the High Plains 
Thursday and Friday...and with a southeasterly flow in the lowest 
800mb we will need to keep an eye on some of this activity making 
a run at the County Warning Area during the overnight hours. Since there is a lack 
of strong northwest flow aloft in the middle levels...believe 
convection will dissipate before reaching most of the area...but 
have inserted a slight chance in the northwest zones Thursday and Friday 
nights. Will keep the remainder of the forecast dry. 


Tr.92 


&& 






Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 71 90 71 88 67 / 10 20 40 50 50 
Waco, Texas 72 90 72 91 68 / 5 10 20 40 60 
Paris, Texas 70 87 69 83 65 / 10 10 60 50 50 
Denton, Texas 70 89 69 86 64 / 10 30 40 40 40 
McKinney, Texas 70 89 70 85 65 / 10 20 40 50 50 
Dallas, Texas 73 91 73 89 69 / 10 20 40 50 50 
Terrell, Texas 70 89 71 87 68 / 10 10 30 50 60 
Corsicana, Texas 71 89 72 88 69 / 5 10 20 40 60 
Temple, Texas 71 90 72 92 69 / 5 10 20 40 60 
Mineral Wells, Texas 70 94 68 88 65 / 20 30 30 40 40 


&& 


Forward watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 


&& 


$$