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Nowcast

• 

• Now as of 1:20 PM CDT on May 24, 2013

  Showers and thunderstorms will continue to increase in areal coverage throughout the day. Brief heavy rainfall and lightning strikes will be the main threats. Widespread severe weather is not expected but a few strong storms could produce hail up to the size of quarters and gusty winds of 40 to 50 mph. Rainfall totals today will range up to a quarter of an inch with some isolated higher amounts. Otherwise...expect mostly cloudy and humid conditions. Temperatures will mostly be in the 80s this afternoon...except in rain cooled areas where temperatures will fall into the 70s.

Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Friday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 70 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Saturday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 66 °
• Chance of a Thunderstorm

• Sunday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 72 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Monday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 68 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 73 °
• Mostly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas 
1217 PM CDT Friday may 24 2013 


Aviation... 
/18z tafs/ 


Concerns...threat for thunder during the afternoon/evening hours and 
possibly overnight. 


Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue 
across the region through at least the early evening hours. 
Coverage is expected to be greatest during the middle to late 
afternoon hours and this is the most likely time frame for any 
impacts to the airports. There is the potential for strong storms 
producing hail up to 1 inch in diameter and gusty winds of 40 to 50 
miles per hour. VFR ceilings will prevail into the overnight hours. 


Some of the short term models suggest precipitation is possible 
overnight but confidence in areal coverage and impacts to the 
airports is low and will keep the mention of vcsh/ts out after 
02z. This may need to be amended with later taf issuances. With 
convection likely to occur somewhere in the region 
overnight...this will likely interfere with the potential for 
stratus overnight. Due to uncertainty in location and extent of 
any developing stratus...reduced the previous bkn020 overnight to 
sct020 for now and will monitor trends. Will likely see some 5-6 
sm br conditions again Saturday morning. 


For the extended...expect showers and thunderstorms to again 
develop late Saturday morning or around the midday hours. Coverage 
may be a little less as a shortwave moves east of the I-35 
corridor but will mention thunderstorms in the vicinity for now in the extended portion of 
kdfw. 


82/jld 


&& 






Previous discussion... /issued 257 am CDT Friday may 24 2013/ 
convection over the Edwards Plateau this morning has spun up an 
mesoscale convective vortex...which is forecast to move east-northeast into southwestern North Texas. 
This forcing should kick up more convection as seen in European model (ecmwf) and 
GFS. NAM forecasts new convection in the northern Texas Panhandle this 
morning...but recent radar shows that convection is weakening so 
have disregarded the NAM/S solution of a southeast-moving mesoscale convective system 
moving into western counties. Both solutions are wet for the 
area...just a difference on mechanisms and local precipitation amounts. 


There is also a short wave just off of central Baja California that should 
track east-northeast and move into our area this afternoon or 
evening...adding support to the forecast of convection moving light snow shower 
NE this afternoon/evening. Not all areas will see rain...but cannot 
eliminate any areas given differences in model precipitation 
forecasts so probability of precipitation extend across all of North Texas. 


Will keep lows mainly in the 70s and highs in the middle-upper 80s 
through Sunday due to fairly high cloud cover. Next week moderate 
ridging aloft and decreasing clouds will allow slightly cooler 
mornings and warmer afternoons. GFS/Euro continue to differ on 
precipitation chances late in the week so will not forecast rain in the 
extended. 84 






&& 




Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 85 71 84 70 87 / 30 30 20 20 10 
Waco, Texas 87 71 88 70 89 / 40 30 20 20 5 
Paris, Texas 81 69 84 71 85 / 20 20 20 20 10 
Denton, Texas 83 71 83 70 86 / 30 30 20 20 10 
McKinney, Texas 84 71 85 70 87 / 30 30 20 20 10 
Dallas, Texas 87 71 87 70 89 / 30 30 20 20 10 
Terrell, Texas 86 71 87 70 88 / 20 20 20 20 5 
Corsicana, Texas 87 71 87 71 89 / 30 30 20 20 5 
Temple, Texas 86 72 87 70 88 / 40 30 20 20 5 
Mineral Wells, Texas 85 71 84 69 88 / 40 30 20 20 10 


&& 


Forward watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 


&& 


$$ 


82/69