Allen, Texas Weather Conditions

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Current Conditions

  • 77°
  • Clear
  • Wind: WNW 7 mph
  • Humidity: 69%
  • Visibility: 10.0 miles
  • Dew Point: 66°
  • Pressure: 29.92 in. +

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Click a section below for more information.

Next 12 Hours

8  pm
11  pm
2  am
5  am
8  am
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Chance of a Thunderstorm
Chance of T-storms
Thunderstorm
T-storms
Chance of a Thunderstorm
Chance of T-storms
Chance of a Thunderstorm
Chance of T-storms
78°
72°
69°
68°
68°
Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

  • Saturday
  • Chance of a Thunderstorm
  • High: 78 °
  • Low: 58 °
  • Chance of T-Storms
  • Sunday
  • Clear
  • High: 78 °
  • Low: 60 °
  • Clear
  • Monday
  • Clear
  • High: 83 °
  • Low: 63 °
  • Clear
  • Tuesday
  • Clear
  • High: 85 °
  • Low: 65 °
  • Clear
  • Wednesday
  • Partly Cloudy
  • High: 86 °
  • Low: 67 °
  • Partly Cloudy

Forecast for Allen, Texas

Updated: 4:04 PM CDT on January 29, 2015

Flash Flood Watch in effect through Saturday morning...
  • Friday

    Heavy thunderstorms. Lows overnight in the upper 60s.

  • Friday Night

    Scattered thunderstorms early, then mostly cloudy overnight with heavy thunderstorms becoming likely. Low 67F. Winds SW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 80%.

  • Saturday

    Variable clouds with scattered thunderstorms. High 78F. Winds N at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 60%.

  • Saturday Night

    Partly cloudy skies. Low 58F. Winds N at 10 to 15 mph.

  • Sunday

    A mainly sunny sky. High 78F. Winds N at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Sunday Night

    Mostly clear. Low near 60F. Winds NNE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Monday

    Mostly sunny skies. High 83F. Winds light and variable.

  • Monday Night

    Clear. Low 63F. Winds light and variable.

  • Tuesday

    Generally sunny despite a few afternoon clouds. High around 85F. Winds SE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Tuesday Night

    Mostly clear skies. Low around 65F. Winds SE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Wednesday

    Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 86F. Winds SSE at 10 to 15 mph.

  • Wednesday Night

    Clear. Low 67F. Winds SSE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Thursday

    Mostly sunny skies. High 87F. Winds SSE at 10 to 15 mph.

  • Thursday Night

    Clear. Low 68F. Winds SSE at 10 to 15 mph.

  • Friday

    Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 88F. Winds SSE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Friday Night

    Mainly clear. Low 68F. Winds SSE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Saturday

    Partly cloudy. High near 90F. Winds SSE at 10 to 15 mph.

  • Saturday Night

    A mostly clear sky. Low near 70F. Winds SSE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Sunday

    Some clouds in the morning will give way to mainly sunny skies for the afternoon. High around 90F. Winds SSE at 10 to 15 mph.

  • Sunday Night

    Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms developing overnight. Low near 70F. Winds SE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

  • Monday

    A few thunderstorms in the morning. Mostly sunny skies during the afternoon. High 88F. Winds E at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

  • Monday Night

    Mostly clear skies in the evening with isolated thunderstorms developing after midnight. Low around 70F. Winds NE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

Severe Weather Alert Descriptions

 Flood Warning  Statement as of 2:47 PM CDT on May 29, 2015


The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a

* Flood Warning for
the sister Grove creek near Blue Ridge.
* Until Saturday afternoon... or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 0200 PM Friday the stage was 24.92 feet.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast... the river will continue rising to a crest near 26 feet
by Friday evening. The river should fall below flood stage Saturday
after midnight.
* At 24 feet, minor out of bank flooding along the creek is expected.
Rural roads, along with farm and ranch land near the creek, will
begin to flood.


Lat... Lon 3330 9654 3325 9654 3325 9641 3330 9641





740 am CDT Fri may 29 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
the East Fork Trinity River at McKinney.
* At 0400 am Friday the stage was 15.86 feet.
* Flood stage is 6 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast... the river is expected to rise above flood stage by
Friday overnight and crest near 19 feet by Friday evening. The
river should fall below flood stage by late Saturday afternoon.


Lat... Lon 3323 9667 3315 9661 3316 9649 3325 9654





 Flash Flood Watch  Statement as of 1:48 PM CDT on May 29, 2015


... Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through Saturday morning...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* portions of north central Texas... northeast Texas and south
central Texas... including the following areas... in north
central Texas... Bell... Bosque... Collin... Comanche... Cooke...
Coryell... Dallas... Denton... Eastland... Ellis... Erath... falls...
   Fannin... Freestone... Grayson... Hamilton... Hill... Hood...
Hunt... Jack... Johnson... Kaufman... Lampasas... Limestone...
McLennan... Mills... Montague... Navarro... Palo Pinto... Parker...
Rockwall... Somervell... Stephens... Tarrant... wise and Young.
In northeast Texas... Anderson... Delta... Henderson... Hopkins...
Lamar... Leon... rains and Van Zandt. In south central Texas...
Milam and Robertson.

* Through Saturday morning

* widespread 1 to 3 inches with isolated higher amounts possible.

* Soils are saturated across the watch area. Any additional
heavy rain will runoff quickly and result in flash flooding.
In addition... heavy rains will only aggravate ongoing river
and lake flooding across the area.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions are favorable for heavy
rain which may lead to flash flooding. You should monitor the
latest forecasts from the National Weather Service and be
prepared to take action should flash flood warnings be issued for
your area.






 Record Report  Statement as of 2:05 am CDT on May 29, 2015


... Record rainfall for the month of may set at Dallas Fort Worth...

As of midnight CST... dfw had received a record rainfall of 13.87
inches for the month of may. This broke the old record of 13.66 set
in 1982. Additional rain during the next few days will only add to
this new record.




 Local Storm Report 



05/29/2015 0930 am

Prosper, Collin County.

Flash flood, reported by public.


            Swift water Rescue in Prosper, TX




05/29/2015 0930 am

Prosper, Collin County.

Flash flood, reported by public.


            Swift water Rescue in Prosper, TX




05/29/2015 0930 am

Prosper, Collin County.

Flash flood, reported by public.


            Swift water Rescue in Prosper, TX




05/29/2015 0807 am

3 miles NNW of Plano, Collin County.

Heavy rain e3.80 inch, reported by public.


            3.80 inches overnight




05/29/2015 0807 am

3 miles NNW of Plano, Collin County.

Heavy rain e3.80 inch, reported by public.


            3.80 inches overnight




05/29/2015 0615 am

Plano, Collin County.

Flash flood, reported by Emergency Mngr.


            Siloh Rd flooded




05/29/2015 0614 am

Plano, Collin County.

Flash flood, reported by Emergency Mngr.


            Hwy 75 frontage roads at Chase Oaks flooded




05/29/2015 0615 am

Plano, Collin County.

Flash flood, reported by Emergency Mngr.


            Siloh Rd flooded




05/29/2015 0615 AM

PLANO, Collin County.

FLASH FLOOD, reported by EMERGENCY MNGR.


            SILOH RD FLOODED



05/29/2015 0615 am

Plano, Collin County.

Flash flood, reported by Emergency Mngr.


            Siloh Rd flooded




05/29/2015 0614 am

Plano, Collin County.

Flash flood, reported by Emergency Mngr.


            Hwy 75 frontage roads at Chase Oaks flooded




05/29/2015 0614 am

Plano, Collin County.

Flash flood, reported by Emergency Mngr.


            Hwy 75 frontage roads at Chase Oaks flooded




05/28/2015 0630 PM

Farmersville, Collin County.

Hail e1.25 inch, reported by amateur radio.





05/28/2015 0630 PM

Farmersville, Collin County.

Hail e1.00 inch, reported by Fire Dept/Rescue.





05/28/2015 0626 PM

Farmersville, Collin County.

Hail e1.75 inch, reported by amateur radio.





05/28/2015 0621 PM

Farmersville, Collin County.

Hail e1.00 inch, reported by trained spotter.


            Quarter size hail in Farmersville



Personal Weather Stations

Personal Weather Stations [Add your weather station!]

Location: Angel Parkway, Allen, TX

Updated: 6:47 PM CDT

Temperature: 77.2 °F Dew Point: 64 °F Humidity: 63% Wind: West at 4.7 mph Pressure: 29.60 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: 79 °F Graphs

Location: Parker Lake Estates, Allen, TX

Updated: 6:53 PM CDT

Temperature: 76.4 °F Dew Point: 68 °F Humidity: 75% Wind: WNW at 1.0 mph Pressure: 29.23 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 78 °F Graphs

Location: Morningside, Allen, TX

Updated: 7:02 PM CDT

Temperature: 76.8 °F Dew Point: 48 °F Humidity: 36% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.85 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 78 °F Graphs

Location: N5SKE, Allen, TX

Updated: 7:00 PM CDT

Temperature: 78.4 °F Dew Point: 67 °F Humidity: 68% Wind: NNW at 5.8 mph Pressure: 29.81 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: 80 °F Graphs

Location: country club/main - ke5fco, Allen, TX

Updated: 7:01 PM CDT

Temperature: 79.2 °F Dew Point: 70 °F Humidity: 73% Wind: WSW at 2.7 mph Pressure: 29.89 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: 82 °F Graphs

Location: Coyote Station, Allen, TX

Updated: 7:00 PM CDT

Temperature: 77.3 °F Dew Point: 68 °F Humidity: 72% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.81 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 79 °F Graphs

Location: Allen, TX

Updated: 7:01 PM CDT

Temperature: 77.7 °F Dew Point: 69 °F Humidity: 74% Wind: West at 1.0 mph Pressure: 29.96 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 80 °F Graphs

Location: Country Meadow, Allen, TX

Updated: 6:49 PM CDT

Temperature: 77.7 °F Dew Point: 65 °F Humidity: 66% Wind: North at 1.7 mph Pressure: 29.92 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: 80 °F Graphs

Location: Fountain Gate Park, Allen, TX

Updated: 7:02 PM CDT

Temperature: 76.6 °F Dew Point: 67 °F Humidity: 73% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.83 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 78 °F Graphs

Location: Chandler Estates, Lucas, TX, O2 Ranch, TX

Updated: 6:47 PM CDT

Temperature: 76.4 °F Dew Point: 68 °F Humidity: 76% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.89 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 78 °F Graphs

Location: Heritage Park (W5JOU), Allen, TX

Updated: 7:02 PM CDT

Temperature: 78.3 °F Dew Point: 31 °F Humidity: 18% Wind: SW at 3.0 mph Pressure: 29.45 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 77 °F Graphs

Location: Stinson Highlands, Lucas, TX

Updated: 7:01 PM CDT

Temperature: 76.6 °F Dew Point: 68 °F Humidity: 74% Wind: WSW at 1.0 mph Pressure: 29.53 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 78 °F Graphs

Location: Wedgewood Way, Allen, TX

Updated: 6:56 PM CDT

Temperature: 79.2 °F Dew Point: 70 °F Humidity: 72% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.91 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: 82 °F Graphs

Location: Wind Elm Drive, Allen, TX

Updated: 6:55 PM CDT

Temperature: 75.4 °F Dew Point: 69 °F Humidity: 80% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.90 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: 76 °F Graphs

Location: Stacy Ridge Estates 2, Allen, TX

Updated: 7:00 PM CDT

Temperature: 77.7 °F Dew Point: 68 °F Humidity: 73% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.84 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 80 °F Graphs

Location: Patrick Taylor - NTEX Marketing, Parker, TX

Updated: 6:55 PM CDT

Temperature: 76.8 °F Dew Point: 68 °F Humidity: 74% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.89 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 78 °F Graphs

Location: Summer Hill Farms, Fairview, TX

Updated: 7:02 PM CDT

Temperature: 77.9 °F Dew Point: - Humidity: 100% Wind: North at - Pressure: - Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 80 °F Graphs

Location: Lost Creek Ranch, Allen, TX

Updated: 7:01 PM CDT

Temperature: 77.0 °F Dew Point: 68 °F Humidity: 74% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.89 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 79 °F Graphs

Location: Timber Brook, Plano, TX

Updated: 7:00 PM CDT

Temperature: 76.8 °F Dew Point: 68 °F Humidity: 74% Wind: West at 5.0 mph Pressure: 30.46 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 78 °F Graphs

Location: Bridlegate, Fairview, TX

Updated: 7:01 PM CDT

Temperature: 76.0 °F Dew Point: 68 °F Humidity: 76% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.91 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 77 °F Graphs

Location: Lucas Creek, Lucas, TX

Updated: 7:00 PM CDT

Temperature: 76.8 °F Dew Point: 69 °F Humidity: 77% Wind: WSW at 1.0 mph Pressure: 29.90 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 78 °F Graphs

Location: Moss Ridge Estates, Parker, TX

Updated: 7:00 PM CDT

Temperature: 76.9 °F Dew Point: 68 °F Humidity: 73% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.91 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 79 °F Graphs

Location: Thompson Springs, Fairview, TX

Updated: 7:02 PM CDT

Temperature: 76.9 °F Dew Point: 68 °F Humidity: 75% Wind: West at 3.0 mph Pressure: 29.73 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 79 °F Graphs

Location: McCreary Creek Estates, Parker, TX

Updated: 6:48 PM CDT

Temperature: 79.7 °F Dew Point: 71 °F Humidity: 74% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.67 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: 83 °F Graphs

Location: Northwest Wylie, Wylie, TX

Updated: 6:51 PM CDT

Temperature: 78.6 °F Dew Point: -30 °F Humidity: - Wind: ESE at 4.2 mph Pressure: 29.71 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: 76 °F Graphs

Location: Creekside Estates, Wylie, TX

Updated: 7:02 PM CDT

Temperature: 77.9 °F Dew Point: 69 °F Humidity: 75% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.77 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 80 °F Graphs

Location: Timber Brook West, Plano, TX

Updated: 7:01 PM CDT

Temperature: 76.5 °F Dew Point: 67 °F Humidity: 73% Wind: West at 3.6 mph Pressure: 29.76 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 78 °F Graphs

Location: The Aviary, Murphy, TX

Updated: 6:44 PM CDT

Temperature: 75.0 °F Dew Point: 69 °F Humidity: 86% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.74 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: 75 °F Graphs

Location: Flamingo Court, Murphy, TX

Updated: 6:55 PM CDT

Temperature: 74.8 °F Dew Point: 70 °F Humidity: 86% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.75 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 74 °F Graphs

Location: Fairview Oakwood, Fairview, TX

Updated: 7:01 PM CDT

Temperature: 76.6 °F Dew Point: 68 °F Humidity: 74% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.76 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 78 °F Graphs

Location: Quest Addition, McKinney, TX

Updated: 7:00 PM CDT

Temperature: 76.4 °F Dew Point: 68 °F Humidity: 76% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.94 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 78 °F Graphs

Location: Los Rios, Plano, TX

Updated: 7:01 PM CDT

Temperature: 79.4 °F Dew Point: 68 °F Humidity: 69% Wind: WSW at 2.5 mph Pressure: 29.92 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 82 °F Graphs

Location: Heritage Ranch, Fairview, TX

Updated: 6:56 PM CDT

Temperature: 77.0 °F Dew Point: 68 °F Humidity: 74% Wind: SW at 2.0 mph Pressure: 29.88 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 79 °F Graphs

Location: Charles River Court, Allen, TX

Updated: 6:55 PM CDT

Temperature: 79.3 °F Dew Point: 69 °F Humidity: 71% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.99 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: 82 °F Graphs

MSN Maps of:

Temp: Dew Point: Humidity Wind Pressure Hr Precip -

NWS Forecaster Discussion


afdfwd 


Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas 
640 PM CDT Friday may 29 2015 


Update... 
minor update to the afternoon forecast package to reduce probability of precipitation for 
the evening hours...7 PM to 10 PM...and 20 to 30 probability of precipitation for the 
10 PM to 1 am time period. Also reduced cloud coverage over the 
southern and southwestern counties to mostly clear skies for the 
evening. 75 


&& 


Aviation... 


/issued 122 PM CDT Friday may 29 2015/ 
two primary weather features will affect North Texas weather for 
this taf cycle. The first is an upper low currently spiraling 
around the arklatex region. This system brought flooding rains to 
much of the metroplex last night...and continues to produce 
banding features on radar over East Texas. Additional showers 
associated with this feature will remain possible in the Dallas- 
Fort Worth area in the near term...but the current thinking is 
that this activity will move east of the metroplex by sunset. 


A second feature to keep our eyes on is a shortwave trough 
currently dropping southeast through the Southern Plains. This 
system is accompanied by a cold front...and both should bring 
another round of convection overnight tonight. We will introduce 
thunderstorms in the vicinity in the metroplex around 30/05z then include a period of 
prevailing ts Saturday morning. Precipitation should push south 
of the metroplex middle morning Saturday with the front...then 
around middle day at kact. MVFR ceilings and north winds are expected 
Saturday behind the cold front. 


30 




&& 




Previous discussion... /issued 354 PM CDT Friday may 29 2015/ 


Early afternoon water vapor satellite imagery showed a compact 
shortwave trough in place over central Texas. This trough was 
spreading lift/ascent over the eastern half of the County Warning Area as of 
20z/3pm. Regional radars showed scattered storms over areas 
just northeast of the dfw metroplex at 3 PM, out ahead of this 
shortwave trough. Locally calculated convective parameters 
indicate that the thermodynamic environment in which these storms 
are developing is characterized by cape values of around 1,000 
j/kg. Deep layer shear magnitudes were calculated at 35 to 40 
kts. The combination of cape and shear supports a multi-cellular 
storm Mode that may allow for storms producing hail around 1 inch 
in diameter...and microburst winds of 50 to 60 miles per hour. A localized 
heavy rainfall threat is possible as well. Do not expect wide 
spread severe storms or widespread flooding with this thunderstorm 
activity this afternoon...however we will keep a very close eye on 
both possibilities...especially flooding...as it will not take 
much rain to result in flooding today or tonight. 


Expect that the ongoing early afternoon thunderstorm activity will 
tend to move east of the County Warning Area through this evening as the shortwave 
trough continues east...bringing some temporary subsidence in over 
north and central Texas. This shortwave trough is expected to 
continue moving east of the County Warning Area this evening...with subsidence 
moving east out of the area after midnight tonight. Once the 
subsidence is no longer in place over the County Warning Area...another shortwave 
trough is expected to approach...bringing some weak lift back over 
the region early tomorrow morning. 


Once subsidence has exited the region...there are two areas of 
concern we'll be watching closely for new thunderstorm development 
after midnight. The first is thunderstorm activity that is 
expected to develop over the southern High Plains...immediately 
downstream of this second shortwave trough...which was located 
over southwestern Colorado at 20z/3pm. This complex of storms 
appears very likely to develop due to the fact that relatively 
strong lift associated with the Colorado shortwave trough seems 
well handled by model guidance which seems to have the position 
and strength of the shortwave trough well resolved at this time. 
This complex of storms is expected to congeal into a line and move 
southeast along a low-level instability axis which would send the 
linear mesoscale convective system over our southwestern County Warning Area well after midnight tonight. 


The second area of thunderstorms that are expected to develop are 
expected to occur along an east-west oriented line...likely 
associated with an 850 mb frontal zone that is expected to be in 
place anywhere from the Red River to the Interstate 20 corridor 
tonight. The position of this elevated frontal boundary is 
important, because high resolution model guidance indicates that 
new thunderstorm activity will develop on this boundary by 08z/3am 
and then train east along the boundary through sunrise Saturday 
morning. If the boundary is located near the Red River, the 
greatest threat for this zone of training storms would exist south 
of the boundary...to the I-20 corridor...placing another band of 
heavy rainfall over areas that have experienced high end flash 
flooding impacts over the past few days. If the elevated frontal 
zone ends up over the I-20 corridor, the biggest threat for 
training storms and heavy rainfall would be concentrated along and 
south of I-20 to the Waco/Palestine areas. These areas have 
experienced high impact flooding as well over the past week, 
however some of these locations haven't had as much rain and 
flooding over the past day or two. If we get additional heavy 
rainfall anywhere across north or central Texas at this 
point...flooding will probably occur. We are simply too saturated 
to store any additional rainfall anywhere across the region...so 
the Flash Flood Watch will remain in effect until Saturday 
afternoon. 


A couple of things to watch for tonight: most high resolution 
model guidance indicates that this east-west band of heavy 
rainfall/thunderstorms will develop after midnight through 3 am. 
The duration of this rainfall does appear to be tied to the timing 
of the line of storms building in from the southern High Plains. 


If the southern High Plains line of storms moves across the 
southwestern portions of the County Warning Area faster than expected, it will 
likely change the orientation of low-level wind vectors away from 
the 850 mb frontal zone... disrupting the primary mechanism that's 
expected to cause the storms to train along this boundary 
overnight. In short...faster High Plains mesoscale convective system seems to equal a 
lower chance of additional high-impact flooding along and south of 
the 850 frontal zone tonight. 


On the other hand, if the Southern Plains mesoscale convective system is slower...or 
simply does not materialize...convergence and low-level flow into 
the 850 mb frontal zone will be left undisturbed...allowing storms 
to train along this frontal zone from 3 am until 8 or 9 am. With 
rainfall rates of around 1 inch per hour expected...this is 
obviously not the solution that would benefit the region as we 
would likely receive another round of high impact flooding with 
many areas receiving 1-2 inches of rain...with a focused zone of 
3-4 inches or greater likely near the 850 front. 


The current forecast calls for the most likely scenario where 
storms develop along the 850 front between midnight and 3 am...and 
train for a few hours before the southern High Plains mesoscale convective system sweeps 
in and disrupts the low-level flow towards the frontal boundary 
from west to east through 6 am. This would limit the potential 
training along the frontal boundary to a few hours...resulting in 
about half of the "worst case scenario" rainfall totals mentioned 
above. 


We will simply have to watch the mesoscale environment closely 
this evening into the overnight hours to get a better idea of 
which scenario is most likely to pan out. It would be nice if no 
additional thunderstorms develop tonight across the 
region...however that seems very unlikely due to the approach of 
the southwest Colorado shortwave trough. 


The Colorado shortwave trough is not expected to move over the County Warning Area 
until late tomorrow afternoon...so it will continue to spread lift 
over the region through that time on Saturday. Do not expect 
additional rounds of heavy rainfall to develop on Saturday because 
a cold front is expected to push southeast across the County Warning Area from 
northwest to southeast Saturday late morning through early 
afternoon. While additional shower and elevated thunderstorms are 
certainly possible behind the cold front...most of the low-level 
moisture fueling our recent episodes of heavy rain and flooding 
are expected to be advected southeast away from the region behind 
this front. Therefore...any additional shower or thunderstorm 
activity on Saturday is expected to remain unorganized and 
generally light in nature and should not pose anymore threat for 
widespread flooding. 


Sunday through next week...the general pattern seems to shift to a 
somewhat stagnant one where the Colorado upper trough/low stalls 
out over Louisiana or Mississippi on Sunday...keeping the Southern 
Plains in weak ridging and subsidence from Sunday afternoon 
through the first half of next week. If this large scale pattern 
holds true...this should enter the region into at least a short 
term period of dry weather. Most models agree on generally dry 
weather from Sunday afternoon through the first half of next 
week...so hopefully we'll get a chance to dry out as models 
currently advertise. 


Cavanaugh 


&& 






Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 68 80 63 81 63 / 70 70 20 5 5 
Waco, Texas 69 81 64 81 61 / 50 60 40 20 5 
Paris, Texas 65 78 61 78 61 / 80 80 30 5 10 
Denton, Texas 66 79 61 80 59 / 80 80 10 5 5 
McKinney, Texas 66 79 61 79 60 / 80 80 20 5 5 
Dallas, Texas 68 81 63 81 64 / 70 70 30 10 5 
Terrell, Texas 69 81 63 80 62 / 40 60 30 10 5 
Corsicana, Texas 69 81 64 80 63 / 30 60 40 20 5 
Temple, Texas 68 81 64 81 62 / 40 60 40 20 5 
Mineral Wells, Texas 66 78 61 79 59 / 60 60 10 5 5 


&& 


Forward watches/warnings/advisories... 
Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for txz091>095- 
100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175. 




&& 


$$ 


/75 



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