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Nowcast

• 

• Now as of 5:45 PM CDT on May 21, 2013

  A line of strong thunderstorms extended east of a Bonham to Waxahachie to Killeen line at 545 PM. Winds gusts of 40 to 50 mph...heavy rainfall and cloud to ground lightning will acompany these storms move east northeast at 45 mph. Some storms will become severe and produce wind gusts over 60 mph and hail to the size of quarters. A few of the storms...south of I-20 will have the potential to produce an isolated tornado.

Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 83 °
• Low: 63 °
• T-Storms

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 64 °
• Clear

• Thursday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 68 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Friday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 66 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Saturday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 66 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas 
637 PM CDT Tuesday may 21 2013 


Aviation... 
/00z tafs/ 


Main line of thunderstorms has moved east of all the taf sites. 
There is still some shower and thunderstorm development behind 
the leading line of storms but this activity should also remain 
east of the airports. MVFR and IFR clouds are beginning to clear 
from west to east. Kafw...kftw...kgky and kact are already VFR. 
Kdfw and kdal will keep MVFR ceilings through 01-02z. 


The cold front has now passed through all the taf sites with north 
to northwest winds prevailing around 10 kts with slightly higher 
gusts. Winds will become light overnight. With the light winds and 
rich ground moisture...fog is likely to develop overnight. Much of 
the fog could be ground fog. For now...will prevail 2-3 sm 
beginning at 10z at the taf sites...but it is possible that some 
locations could see visibilities between 1-2 sm. As the fog begins 
to lift after sunrise...could also see very low clouds temporarily 
develop. Any fog restrictions should improve by 14-15z. For the 
remainder of tomorrow...winds will come around the southeast and 
VFR will prevail. 


82/jld 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 327 PM CDT Tuesday may 21 2013/ 
we will be dropping counties along and northwest of a Sherman to 
Weatherford...Glen Rose and Goldthwaite line from the Tornado Watch with 
the release of the afternoon forecast package. 


The cold front will continue to push southeast at nearly 30 miles per hour 
at middle afternoon and it should clear the far southeastern counties 
early this evening...around 7pm. The convection has mostly been a 
straight line wind producer with many sites reporting gusts 50-70 
miles per hour. Denton ASOS reported a gust to 73 miles per hour at 138 PM. We will 
continue to ride with a Tornado Watch for the remainder of the County Warning Area 
late this afternoon since a discrete cell or two could develop 
ahead of the cold front. 


Cooler temperatures and northwest winds will spread over most of 
the County Warning Area behind the cold front this evening. Expecting the coolest 
overnight lows...middle 50s to lower 60s...over the northwest one 
half in the morning where skies should clear tonight. 


A longwave ridge will build over The Rockies on Wednesday with 
northwest flow aloft over the region through Thursday. Weak 
impulses in this upper flow could result in elevated showers or 
thunderstorms Wednesday night and again on Thursday night. The 
Thursday night system may develop into an mesoscale convective system over the Texas Panhandle 
and some of this activity may spread over the County Warning Area on Friday as a 
backdoor cold front slides into the northeast counties. 


The upcoming Memorial Day weekend is looking dry and seasonably 
warm...but many times in the past this weekend has turned out to 
be a stormy one. For now will keep Sat-Monday dry with highs in the 
upper 90s to middle 90s and lows in the middle 60s to lower 70s. 


75 


&& 






Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 60 88 67 90 70 / 20 10 10 10 10 
Waco, Texas 62 89 67 92 70 / 30 10 10 10 10 
Paris, Texas 61 84 61 86 65 / 20 10 10 10 10 
Denton, Texas 59 86 63 88 68 / 20 10 20 10 10 
McKinney, Texas 59 87 63 89 68 / 20 10 10 10 10 
Dallas, Texas 60 90 70 92 70 / 20 10 10 10 10 
Terrell, Texas 61 87 64 91 69 / 30 10 10 10 10 
Corsicana, Texas 62 89 67 92 70 / 30 10 10 10 10 
Temple, Texas 63 89 67 92 69 / 30 20 10 10 10 
Mineral Wells, Texas 60 89 64 91 69 / 20 10 20 10 20 


&& 


Forward watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 


&& 


$$ 


82/58