Fort Worth, Texas Weather Conditions

Your Weather

To update your location please enter your ZIP code, city, state, airport code or country in the field below. Weather by E-mail: Forecast storm alerts. Weather E-Mail Alert Sign Up »

Current Conditions

  • 63°
  • Clear
  • Wind: SE 10 mph
  • Humidity: 72%
  • Visibility: 10.0 miles
  • Dew Point: 54°
  • Pressure: 30.00 in. +

Nowcast

  • Now as of 5:41 PM CST on November 20, 2014

    Scattered showers will continue to affect areas southeast of a Killeen to Athens line this evening...especially across Leon... Fairfield and Anderson counties. This activity should spread a little farther north and may reach Marlin...Mexia and Athens before midnight. Otherwise...it will remain mild this evening with southerly winds of 5 to 15 mph. Skies will be clear northwest of a Goldthwaite to Bonham line and mostly cloudy to the southeast of this line. Temperatures will cool slowly with most of the region being in the low to mid 60s by midnight.

Select a Section

Click a section below for more information.

Next 12 Hours

9  pm
12  am
3  am
6  am
9  am
Thunderstorm
T-storms
Thunderstorm
T-storms
Thunderstorm
T-storms
Thunderstorm
T-storms
Thunderstorm
T-storms
59°
59°
59°
59°
61°
Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

  • Friday
  • Thunderstorm
  • High: 72 °
  • Low: 61 °
  • T-Storms
  • Saturday
  • Thunderstorm
  • High: 66 °
  • Low: 52 °
  • T-Storms
  • Sunday
  • Partly Cloudy
  • High: 70 °
  • Low: 45 °
  • Partly Cloudy
  • Monday
  • Clear
  • High: 63 °
  • Low: 43 °
  • Clear
  • Tuesday
  • Partly Cloudy
  • High: 59 °
  • Low: 36 °
  • Partly Cloudy

Forecast for Fort Worth, Texas

Updated: 9:00 PM CST on November 20, 2014

  • Thursday

    Partly cloudy. High of 72F. Winds from the SSW at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

  • Thursday Night

    Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms and a chance of rain. Low of 57F. Winds from the SSE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

  • Friday

    Overcast with thunderstorms and a chance of rain, then a chance of a thunderstorm and a chance of rain in the afternoon. High of 72F. Winds from the SSE at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

  • Friday Night

    Overcast with a chance of a thunderstorm and a chance of rain, then thunderstorms and rain showers after midnight. Low of 61F. Winds from the SSE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 60% with rainfall amounts near 0.6 in. possible.

  • Saturday

    Overcast with thunderstorms and rain showers. High of 66F. Breezy. Winds from the SE at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 100% with rainfall amounts near 0.8 in. possible.

  • Saturday Night

    Overcast with thunderstorms in the evening, then partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm and a chance of rain. Fog overnight. Low of 52F. Winds from the South at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50% with rainfall amounts near 0.4 in. possible.

  • Sunday

    Clear in the morning, then partly cloudy. High of 70F. Breezy. Winds from the WSW at 10 to 20 mph.

  • Sunday Night

    Clear in the evening, then partly cloudy. Low of 45F. Winds from the NW at 10 to 15 mph.

  • Monday

    Clear in the morning, then partly cloudy. High of 63F. Winds from the WNW at 5 to 15 mph.

  • Monday Night

    Clear. Low of 43F. Winds from the NE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Tuesday

    Clear. High of 59F. Winds from the NW at 5 to 15 mph shifting to the NNE in the afternoon.

  • Tuesday Night

    Clear. Low of 36F. Winds from the NNE at 5 to 10 mph shifting to the NW after midnight.

  • Wednesday

    Clear. High of 59F. Winds from the West at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Wednesday Night

    Clear. Low of 39F. Winds from the West at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Thursday

    Clear. High of 68F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Thursday Night

    Clear. Low of 37F. Winds from the SE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Friday

    Clear. High of 52F. Winds from the SW at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Friday Night

    Clear. Fog overnight. Low of 37F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Saturday

    Partly cloudy. Fog early. High of 52F. Winds from the South at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Saturday Night

    Partly cloudy. Fog overnight. Low of 45F. Winds from the SSE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Sunday

    Mostly cloudy. Fog early. High of 55F. Winds from the South at 10 to 15 mph.

  • Sunday Night

    Mostly cloudy. Fog overnight. Low of 50F. Winds from the South at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Monday

    Clear. Fog early. High of 57F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Monday Night

    Clear. Fog overnight. Low of 50F. Winds less than 5 mph.

Personal Weather Stations

Personal Weather Stations [Add your weather station!]

Location: North Ft Worth, Haltom City, TX

Updated: 8:04 PM CST

Temperature: 62.7 °F Dew Point: 43 °F Humidity: 48% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.90 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Bellagio, Haltom City, TX

Updated: 8:02 PM CST

Temperature: 64.6 °F Dew Point: 57 °F Humidity: 76% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.94 in Hourly Precipitation: - Graphs

Location: Summerfields, Fort Worth, TX

Updated: 7:52 PM CST

Temperature: 63.5 °F Dew Point: 55 °F Humidity: 75% Wind: ESE at 3.2 mph Pressure: 29.88 in Hourly Precipitation: - Graphs

Location: Meadowlakes North, North Richland Hills, TX

Updated: 8:05 PM CST

Temperature: 65.3 °F Dew Point: 44 °F Humidity: 46% Wind: Calm Pressure: - Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Coventry Hills, Fort Worth, TX

Updated: 7:59 PM CST

Temperature: 63.2 °F Dew Point: 56 °F Humidity: 77% Wind: SE at 1.0 mph Pressure: 29.99 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Haltom City, Haltom City, TX

Updated: 8:04 PM CST

Temperature: 63.7 °F Dew Point: 54 °F Humidity: 71% Wind: SE at 1.6 mph Pressure: 29.29 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Fort Worth, TX

Updated: 8:04 PM CST

Temperature: 63.3 °F Dew Point: 56 °F Humidity: 77% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.01 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: WXnation Station, Fort Worth (5 mi SSE of Alliance Apt), TX

Updated: 8:05 PM CST

Temperature: 61.8 °F Dew Point: 52 °F Humidity: 69% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.94 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: KTXNORTH1, North Richland Hills, TX

Updated: 8:04 PM CST

Temperature: 63.5 °F Dew Point: 55 °F Humidity: 75% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.04 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Quail Drive, Saginaw, TX

Updated: 8:01 PM CST

Temperature: 60.3 °F Dew Point: 54 °F Humidity: 81% Wind: North at - Pressure: 30.09 in Hourly Precipitation: - Graphs

Location: The Bluffs, Fort Worth, TX

Updated: 7:51 PM CST

Temperature: 63.1 °F Dew Point: 55 °F Humidity: 76% Wind: East at 8.0 mph Pressure: 29.99 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: AA5KT, North Richland Hills, TX

Updated: 8:05 PM CST

Temperature: 63.6 °F Dew Point: 56 °F Humidity: 76% Wind: SE at 2.0 mph Pressure: 29.98 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Keller C17, Fort Worth, TX

Updated: 7:50 PM CST

Temperature: 64.4 °F Dew Point: - Humidity: - Wind: North at - Pressure: - Hourly Precipitation: - Graphs

Location: West Keller, (1 Mile NE of Central High), Keller, TX

Updated: 8:05 PM CST

Temperature: 63.0 °F Dew Point: 53 °F Humidity: 70% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.31 in Hourly Precipitation: - Graphs

Location: Kingswood Estates, North Richland Hills, TX

Updated: 8:05 PM CST

Temperature: 61.9 °F Dew Point: 44 °F Humidity: 52% Wind: SE at 7.2 mph Pressure: 30.04 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Oak Bend, Keller, TX

Updated: 8:02 PM CST

Temperature: 63.5 °F Dew Point: 63 °F Humidity: 98% Wind: South at 6.8 mph Pressure: 29.92 in Hourly Precipitation: - Graphs

Location: Smithfield Acres Addition, North Richland Hills, TX

Updated: 8:04 PM CST

Temperature: 62.4 °F Dew Point: 56 °F Humidity: 81% Wind: SE at 2.2 mph Pressure: 30.04 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Hometown, North Richland Hills, TX

Updated: 8:04 PM CST

Temperature: 63.2 °F Dew Point: 56 °F Humidity: 76% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.99 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Ft. Worth Northwest C13, Fort Worth, TX

Updated: 7:50 PM CST

Temperature: 66.4 °F Dew Point: - Humidity: 63% Wind: North at - Pressure: - Hourly Precipitation: - Graphs

Location: Stone Ridge, North Richland Hills, TX

Updated: 8:05 PM CST

Temperature: 63.2 °F Dew Point: 56 °F Humidity: 78% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.99 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Woodland Springs SouthView, Fort Worth, TX

Updated: 8:05 PM CST

Temperature: 63.3 °F Dew Point: 56 °F Humidity: 78% Wind: ESE at 1.0 mph Pressure: 29.99 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Hidden Lakes, Keller, TX

Updated: 8:04 PM CST

Temperature: 63.3 °F Dew Point: 56 °F Humidity: 78% Wind: SSW at 3.0 mph Pressure: 30.01 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Hidden Lakes Elementary School, Keller, TX

Updated: 8:00 PM CST

Temperature: 62.4 °F Dew Point: 55 °F Humidity: 78% Wind: North at 3.2 mph Pressure: 29.94 in Hourly Precipitation: - Graphs

Location: Hurst, Hurst, TX

Updated: 7:57 PM CST

Temperature: 63.6 °F Dew Point: 56 °F Humidity: 75% Wind: SE at 3.0 mph Pressure: 29.99 in Hourly Precipitation: - Graphs

Location: MesoWest SAGINA TX US UPR, Fort Worth, TX

Updated: 6:25 PM CST

Temperature: 67 °F Dew Point: - Humidity: - Wind: Calm Pressure: - Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Haslet, TX

Updated: 8:04 PM CST

Temperature: 61.0 °F Dew Point: 54 °F Humidity: 79% Wind: SW at 1.0 mph Pressure: 30.01 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Fossil Creek Estates, Fort Worth, TX

Updated: 8:05 PM CST

Temperature: 60.4 °F Dew Point: 54 °F Humidity: 81% Wind: SE at 4.0 mph Pressure: 29.97 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: River Trails, Fort Worth, TX

Updated: 8:00 PM CST

Temperature: 63.1 °F Dew Point: 57 °F Humidity: 80% Wind: ESE at 3.2 mph Pressure: 29.93 in Hourly Precipitation: - Graphs

Location: Parkridge Drive, Colleyville, TX

Updated: 8:01 PM CST

Temperature: 64.6 °F Dew Point: 54 °F Humidity: 69% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.99 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Marine Creek, Fort Worth, TX

Updated: 7:58 PM CST

Temperature: 61.3 °F Dew Point: 54 °F Humidity: 77% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.84 in Hourly Precipitation: - Graphs

Location: Mayfield Estates, Hurst, TX

Updated: 8:05 PM CST

Temperature: 63.7 °F Dew Point: 57 °F Humidity: 79% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.98 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Woodhaven, Fort Worth, TX

Updated: 8:04 PM CST

Temperature: 63.0 °F Dew Point: 54 °F Humidity: 73% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.00 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: West Meadowbrook, Fort Worth, TX

Updated: 7:56 PM CST

Temperature: 61.7 °F Dew Point: 55 °F Humidity: 78% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.76 in Hourly Precipitation: - Graphs

Location: Central Meadowbrook, Fort Worth, TX

Updated: 8:03 PM CST

Temperature: 63.1 °F Dew Point: 56 °F Humidity: 77% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.88 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: North Keller, Roanoke, TX

Updated: 8:04 PM CST

Temperature: 62.2 °F Dew Point: 56 °F Humidity: 81% Wind: SSW at 3.0 mph Pressure: 29.99 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Southlake Woods, Southlake, TX

Updated: 8:04 PM CST

Temperature: 62.9 °F Dew Point: 56 °F Humidity: 79% Wind: SSE at 5.0 mph Pressure: 30.00 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Country Moss Way, Southlake, TX

Updated: 8:02 PM CST

Temperature: 64.2 °F Dew Point: 55 °F Humidity: 71% Wind: North at - Pressure: 30.07 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Sun Valley Estates, Haslet, TX

Updated: 8:04 PM CST

Temperature: 61.5 °F Dew Point: 50 °F Humidity: 66% Wind: West at 3.8 mph Pressure: 30.02 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

MSN Maps of:

Temp: Dew Point: Humidity Wind Pressure Hr Precip -

NWS Forecaster Discussion




Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas 
735 PM CST Thursday Nov 20 2014 


Update... 
light winds...dry air and clear skies over the northern and 
northwestern zones have allowed for good radiational cooling and 
temperatures have already crashed through forecast lows in a few 
spots there. Will lower temperatures there a few degrees...especially in 
low lying areas to account for this. Temperatures over the 
northern/northwestern zones will begin to warm during the next few 
hours as warm/moist advection organizes. There is some potential 
for brief advection fog in areas where temperatures currently are below 
55...but will watch for this before adding it to the forecast. 


Otherwise...18z NAM forecasts have an unreasonably high 
moisture/temperature profile in the low levels tonight which is 
resulting in the model generating too much convection over the 
I-35 corridor. Have essentially disregarded this model...and given 
the more realistic and tamer forecasts from the RUC/GFS will lower 
probability of precipitation to just 20 percent along the I-35 corridor tonight. Across 
the southeastern zones...continued warm/moist advection and weak 
isentropic lift should result in scattered showers and perhaps 
isolated storms. Have bumped probability of precipitation up to 50 in this area. 


Severe weather threat Saturday is very conditional on available 
instability...and currently no model shows adequate instability 
until after the 850mb front passes through the area Saturday 
afternoon and evening. Most of the convection will be along and 
ahead of the 850mb front...so instability ahead of it will be 
critical to the severe risk. Of course if dewpoints are just 2-3 
degrees higher than currently forecast...it will provide for 
enough instability for a severe weather event. These Low-Cape and 
high-shear events are extremely sensitive to low level Theta-E 
values...and therefore can be more difficult to forecast than our 
more typical severe weather episodes. In that respect we will just 
need to continue to closely monitor trends in the observation and models 
during the next 36-48 hours. 


Tr.92 




&& 


Aviation... 
/issued 556 PM CST Thursday Nov 20 2014/ 
..the main weather feature we will continue to watch is a strong 
upper level low currently dropping southeast across California... 


This system will continue to dig southeast into the southwestern 
states overnight and Friday...then swing east across central Texas 
Saturday. Return flow in advance of the system is bringing 
increasing moisture across North Texas this evening. Borderline 
MVFR/VFR ceilings are occurring where 60+ dewpoints exist over the far 
southeastern counties /southeast of taf locations/. Widely 
scattered rain showers are also occurring in this region. It 
appears that flow has become somewhat veered at the low 
levels...perhaps reacting to a subtle shortwave passing east 
across the Southern Plains. Showers and MVFR ceilings are likewise 
spreading more northeast than north. We have backed off a little 
bit with regards to the onset of low ceilings in the metroplex this 
evening...thinking that the low level moisture will be shunted 
east of the taf sites. However...dewpoints will still be on the 
rise...which should lead to some MVFR ceilings and visibilities 
starting at or a little before midnight...with IFR ceilings by 
daybreak. Ceilings should then improve late Friday morning. 


Otherwise...isolated thunderstorms will become possible early 
Friday evening...but much more likely on Saturday as lift 
associated with the system to our west spreads overhead. We will 
hold off mentioning ts in tafs at this time...but need to 
introduce for the late Friday night/Saturday period in later 
forecasts. 


30 




&& 






Previous discussion... /issued 339 PM CST Thursday Nov 20 2014/ 


20z/2pm subjective surface analysis indicated a warm front was in 
place near the Red River. To the north of the front temperatures 
were in the upper 50s to low 60s while south of the front (across 
most of the cwa) temperatures were in the low 70s for the first 
time in over a week. Dew points across central Texas started the 
day off in the low 40s...which increased into the middle to upper 50s 
at 20z. Low 60s dew points were observed across deep south 
Texas...advecting north towards The Hill Country and along the 
Texas Gulf Coast. Afternoon water vapor satellite imagery showed a 
shortwave trough over Arizona moving east...and another 
significantly stronger upper level trough just off the central 
California coast...moving southeast. These two upper troughs are 
expected to bring good rain chances across the County Warning Area from tomorrow 
through Saturday evening. 


Through tonight...regional radars were already showing some 
isolated rain showers east of Interstate 35 from Waco to 
Temple...moving northeast as of 3 PM CDT. This was well correlated 
with a 850 mb jet of 25 to 30 kts per regional VAD wind profiles 
within the corridor of 50s dew points surging north across central 
Texas. Expect that this elevated rain shower activity will 
persist...but also increase in coverage overnight as the low-level 
jet strengthens slightly with the aid of the Arizona shortwave 
trough moving east across the region. 12z radiosonde observation analysis indicated 
a plume of steeper lapse rates in the 700 to 500 mb layer out 
ahead of the Arizona shortwave trough. Expect these steeper lapse 
rates to advect east with the trough overnight...increasing the 
potential for thunderstorms to become embedded in the more 
widespread rain shower activity through sunrise. No severe weather 
is expected tonight as all thunderstorm activity is expected to 
remain elevated in nature. The strengthening low-level jet and 
persistent positive moisture advection will keep temperatures much 
warmer tonight than they have been the past several nights. Expect 
lows to hold up in the middle to upper 50s for most locations. 


Friday...the Arizona shortwave trough is expected to push east of 
the region by Friday morning...resulting in some weak shortwave 
ridging setting up over the region out ahead of the 
approaching...and significantly stronger...California upper 
trough. In general...shortwave ridging does not Bode well for 
precipitation chances...and if we were only dealing with shortwave 
riding...a dry forecast would likely be supported on Friday. The 
problem is that the approaching California upper trough will be 
inducing strong low-level cyclogenesis over the southern High 
Plains at the same time. This low-level cyclogenesis will result 
in strong low-level warm air and positive moisture 
advection...which are both catalysts for precipitation. Also...as 
the Arizona upper trough moves over the region overnight...the 
strongest forcing for subsidence in its wake really moves east of 
the area by Friday afternoon. The lack of subsidence aloft does 
not equate to lift...but it will not work as strongly against the 
persistent low-level lift that is expected to be present all day 
Friday. As a result...think that the persistent low-level lift 
eventually wins out...and bumped probability of precipitation up into the likely category 
(around 60 percent) for locations east of Interstate 35 Friday 
afternoon as a result. 


Severe weather chances on Friday are generally low for most 
locations...however the NAM does indicate a conditional window of 
opportunity for some surface based severe storms west of 
Interstate 35 during the peak heating hours of the day. NAM 
forecast soundings for Stephenville indicate the potential for 
around 1500 j/kg of cape with 0-6 km bulk shear magnitudes around 
40 kts. From a parameter stand point alone...this is sufficient to 
support supercell thunderstorms which would be capable of 
producing all types of severe weather. However...there are some 
strong caveats that limit confidence in this solution at this 
time. 


The first limiting factor is that there is no strong lifting 
mechanism for storms west of Interstate 35 Friday afternoon. If 
there are no storms...there is obviously no severe weather 
threat...so that represents a fairly big limiting factor at this 
time. The second limiting factor is that the NAM seems to 
represent the worst case scenario when compared to other model 
guidance. It is possible that the NAM is simply over-doing the 
strong moisture return...and overestimating the potential for 
afternoon heating. So...while it looks very unlikely at this 
time...if there is going to be an enhanced severe weather threat 
tomorrow afternoon...we will need some sunshine which may be hard 
to come by...and dew points will need to surge up to around 65 
degrees west of Interstate 35. At this time 65 degree dew points 
only exist around corpus cristi...so we will continue to advertise 
a low severe weather threat for Friday...while watching the above 
mentioned features throughout the day for any changes to this 
thinking. 


Friday night...the California upper trough is expected to move 
over far West Texas...causing strong frontogenesis and low-level 
convergence to develop from Oklahoma City...south-southwest across 
west central Texas towards Abilene. This will change the focus for 
precipitation from locations east of Interstate 35 to locations 
west of Interstate 35 overnight. The best chances for elevated 
severe storms appear to remain just west of the County Warning Area 
overnight...however if organized/severe storms materialize over 
the western County Warning Area...large hail appears to be the primary threat. 
Heavy rainfall is also possible Friday night...however this threat 
also looks maximized near the strongest zone of convergence west 
of the County Warning Area at this time. 


Saturday...the upper trough is expected to swing out to the east 
over the remainder of Texas on Saturday...spreading strong large 
scale forcing for ascent over the County Warning Area from west to east as it 
moves by. Saturday still represents the overall best chances for 
thunderstorms...locally heavy rainfall...and severe weather across 
north and central Texas. The trough is expected to move over the 
area and at least be neutrally tilted...possibly becoming 
negatively tilted by late Saturday afternoon as it heads almost 
directly over central Texas. The tilt of a trough relates to how 
its base is oriented with respect to the rest of the trough. If 
the trough is moving east...and its base is oriented due 
south...this is neutrally tilted. If the base of the trough tilts 
towards the southeast in this case...it becomes negatively tilted. 
The reason a trough's tilt is important is because an upper level 
trough typically contains cold air in its base. A negatively 
tilted trough allows cold air aloft to move over warm air near the 
surface...increasing instability downstream. 


On Saturday...to assess the severe weather potential...one of the 
things we will be watching for is the upper trough's tilt. If it 
become negatively tilted...the risk of severe storms will be more 
likely to surge north across the County Warning Area. If it remains neutrally 
tilted...the strongest severe storms will tend to remain 
south...either in central Texas or farther south towards the Gulf 
Coast. Aside from the tilt...we will also have to assess the 
strength and quality of low-level moisture return on Saturday. 
Models are forecasting a 50 knots low-level jet (spring time severe 
weather strength) which certainly has the potential to bump up the 
instability and potential for severe storms across the County Warning Area. The 
biggest limiting factor is going to be heating. Every model shows 
thick cloud cover over the entire County Warning Area on Saturday...so significant 
heating just does not look like it's going to happen. As a 
result...our severe weather threat on Saturday is also 
conditional...and we will have to wait and see how strong moisture 
return is Friday night...and monitor the tilt of the trough on 
Saturday to truly assess our severe weather threat locally. 


No matter what...there will be at least a low chance for severe 
storms across most of the County Warning Area on Saturday. The best chance for 
storms along the Interstate 35 corridor appears to be in the 
middle of Saturday afternoon. Parameters indicate that this is a 
good set up for severe weather in a set up that has been 
classified as "low-cape/high-shear". There is a composite 
parameter that was developed recently called the sherb that 
assesses this type of severe weather potential. This parameter's 
ideal value...which is anything close to 1... along the 
Interstate 35 corridor Saturday afternoon. So no matter 
what...there appears to be a low-end threat for hail and damaging 
winds across the area Saturday...with tornadoes and higher end 
severe weather contingent on other factors discussed above coming 
together. 


There is also a threat for heavy rainfall anywhere across the County Warning Area 
on Saturday. Do not think widespread flooding is likely at this 
time as most of the area remains entrenched in a significant 
drought. Because of recent hard freezes...most area vegetation is 
dormant. This will increase runoff...however...area 
lakes..reservoirs and rivers are so low that there is an 
incredible amount of capacity for runoff. The west Gulf river 
forecast center ran a contingency forecast for widespread 4 inches 
of rain and noted no high end river flooding in their models. 
Widespread 4 inch rainfall is well beyond anything in the 
forecast...but was done simply to illustrate the immense capacity 
for runoff that current hydrologic conditions can take. Heavy 
rainfall over any urban area may result in flash flooding...but 
this is expected to remain localized...so no Flood Watch is 
planned at this time. 


Behind the upper trough on Sunday...strong forcing for subsidence 
will bring about an abrupt end to precipitation across the region 
by Sunday morning...leaving mostly sunny skies and dry weather for 
all day on Sunday. Models are indicating that strong westerly 
winds may build across the area on Sunday. At this time model 
surface winds are only advertising 15-25 miles per hour winds...however model 
850 mb winds (around 5000 feet above ground level) are being 
advertised in the 40-50 knots range. If any of this strong wind aloft 
mixes down to the surface...a Wind Advisory may be needed...and 
significant crosswind impacts could occur at regional airports. At 
this time these strong winds aloft are not expected to mix 
down...but this is something we will be watching closely over the 
next couple of days. 


Remainder of the forecast...relatively cool and dry conditions are 
expected behind saturday's big upper trough. A front will move 
across the area Sunday night...but this is not a strong Arctic 
cold front...and temperatures are only expected to fall slightly 
below normal for early next week. Models continue to struggle with 
the large scale flow pattern for late next week. The European model (ecmwf) 
continues to advertise a strong cold front moving across the 
region on Thanksgiving day...while the GFS keeps this front over 
the eastern Continental U.S....making for much milder weather for 
Thanksgiving weekend. The current forecast is more in line with 
the GFS solution at this time. 


Cavanaugh 






&& 




Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 57 71 61 68 55 / 20 40 50 100 60 
Waco, Texas 59 72 62 70 53 / 30 60 50 100 40 
Paris, Texas 50 65 57 66 57 / 40 60 70 90 100 
Denton, Texas 53 70 61 66 53 / 20 40 70 100 60 
McKinney, Texas 55 68 60 67 55 / 20 50 50 100 70 
Dallas, Texas 58 70 61 67 55 / 20 50 50 100 70 
Terrell, Texas 57 69 59 69 56 / 30 60 50 100 80 
Corsicana, Texas 59 71 60 70 56 / 40 60 40 100 70 
Temple, Texas 60 73 63 71 53 / 30 60 50 100 30 
Mineral Wells, Texas 51 70 61 68 50 / 5 30 80 100 30 


&& 


Forward watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 


&& 


$$ 


/ 










National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations

Non-Expanded Version (with abbreviations)

Powered by the Weather Underground, Inc.