Rowlett, Texas Weather Conditions

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Current Conditions

  • 59°
  • Clear
  • Wind: Calm
  • Humidity: 100%
  • Visibility: 7.0 miles
  • Dew Point: 59°
  • Pressure: 29.75 in. +

Nowcast

  • Now as of 11:15 PM CST on November 22, 2014

    Rain is coming to an end from west to east over the region. At 11 PM most of the activity was east of a Sulphur Springs to Corsicana to Temple line. Rainfall rates of up to 1/10 of an inch per hour was occurring with this activity as it continues to push east at 15 mph.

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Next 12 Hours

12  am
3  am
6  am
9  am
12  pm
Chance of a Thunderstorm
Chance of T-storms
Chance of a Thunderstorm
Chance of T-storms
Mostly Cloudy
Mostly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Clear
Clear
63°
61°
59°
59°
70°
Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

  • Sunday
  • Partly Cloudy
  • High: 70 °
  • Low: 43 °
  • Partly Cloudy
  • Monday
  • Clear
  • High: 63 °
  • Low: 37 °
  • Clear
  • Tuesday
  • Partly Cloudy
  • High: 57 °
  • Low: 37 °
  • Partly Cloudy
  • Wednesday
  • Clear
  • High: 63 °
  • Low: 45 °
  • Clear
  • Thursday
  • Clear
  • High: 68 °
  • Low: 41 °
  • Clear

Forecast for Rowlett, Texas

Updated: 3:00 PM CST on November 22, 2014

  • Saturday

    Overcast with thunderstorms and rain showers. High of 66F. Winds from the SSE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 100% with rainfall amounts near 0.8 in. possible.

  • Saturday Night

    Overcast with thunderstorms and rain showers, then a chance of a thunderstorm and a chance of rain after midnight. Low of 57F. Winds from the SSE at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 90% with rainfall amounts near 0.7 in. possible.

  • Sunday

    Mostly cloudy in the morning, then clear. High of 70F. Breezy. Winds from the SSW at 10 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 mph shifting to the West in the afternoon.

  • Sunday Night

    Clear. Low of 43F. Winds from the NW at 5 to 15 mph.

  • Monday

    Clear. High of 63F. Winds from the NW at 10 to 15 mph.

  • Monday Night

    Clear in the evening, then partly cloudy. Low of 37F. Winds from the SW at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Tuesday

    Clear in the morning, then mostly cloudy. High of 57F. Winds from the NW at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Tuesday Night

    Clear. Low of 37F. Winds from the WNW at 5 to 10 mph shifting to the SW after midnight.

  • Wednesday

    Clear in the morning, then partly cloudy. High of 63F. Winds from the SW at 10 to 15 mph.

  • Wednesday Night

    Clear. Low of 45F. Winds from the SSW at 10 to 15 mph.

  • Thursday

    Clear. High of 68F. Winds from the SSW at 10 to 15 mph.

  • Thursday Night

    Clear. Fog overnight. Low of 41F. Winds from the South at 10 to 15 mph.

  • Friday

    Clear. Fog early. High of 61F. Breezy. Winds from the SSW at 10 to 20 mph.

  • Friday Night

    Partly cloudy. Fog overnight. Low of 43F. Winds from the WSW at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Saturday

    Clear. High of 75F. Winds from the NNW at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Saturday Night

    Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain. Fog overnight. Low of 48F. Winds from the South at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

  • Sunday

    Overcast. Fog early. High of 57F. Winds from the South at 5 to 15 mph.

  • Sunday Night

    Mostly cloudy. Fog overnight. Low of 48F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Monday

    Mostly cloudy. Fog early. High of 64F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Monday Night

    Partly cloudy. Fog overnight. Low of 43F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Tuesday

    Partly cloudy. Fog early. High of 63F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Tuesday Night

    Mostly cloudy. Fog overnight. Low of 43F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Wednesday

    Clear. Fog early. High of 66F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Wednesday Night

    Clear. Low of 43F. Winds less than 5 mph.

Severe Weather Alert Descriptions

 Public Information Statement  Statement as of 9:23 PM CST on November 22, 2014


... Preliminary 24 hour rainfall totals ending at 9 PM...

... Anderson...
aplt2 Palestine RAWS 0.37
lolt2 Long Lake 0.34
psn Palestine Municipal 0.39
psnt2 Palestine crn 0.59

... Bell...
blnt2 Belton Lake 0.69
grk Killeen gray ASOS 1.94
hlr Fort Hood ASOS 0.93
ile Killeen skylark AWOS 0.86
lrit2 Little River 1.73
nelt2 Temple 1.95
tmpt2 Temple RAWS 1.35
tpl Temple AWOS 0.48

... Bosque...
aqlt2 Aquilla 0.56
ctnt2 Clifton 0.54
pwg McGregor AWOS 0.72
vmat2 Valley Mills 0.66

... Collin...
bvwt2 Blue Ridge 0.27
gunt2 Gunter 0.50
mckt2 McKinney 0.32
prpt2 Prosper 0.46
tki McKinney ASOS 0.33

... Comanche...
coat2 Comanche RAWS 1.75
dllt2 deleon 1.43
mkn Comanche AWOS 1.69

... Cooke...
gle Gainesville AWOS 0.49
gllt2 Gainesville 0.72
mntt2 Muenster 0.65
vvwt2 Valley View 4s 0.23

... Coryell...
gast2 Gatesville 0.83
gop Gatesville AWOS 0.81
pict2 Pidcoke 1.73

... Dallas...
ads Addison AWOS 0.24
cart2 Carrollton 0.49
cdht2 Cedar Hill RAWS 0.72
Dal Dallas Love ASOS 0.70
dalt2 Dallas 0.40
dwrt2 White Rock creek at 0.48
gpet2 Mountain Creek Lake 0.35
gpm Grand Prairie AWOS 0.32
gprt2 Grand Prairie 0.75
hqz Mesquite AWOS 0.32
lnc Lancaster AWOS 0.23
rbd Dallas executive aso 0.46

... Delta...
copt2 Cooper 0.16
sclt2 jim Chapman Lake (co 0.16

... Denton...
dcjt2 Justin 0.53
dto Denton ASOS 0.39
eflt2 Lewisville 0.37
rrlt2 lake ray Roberts 0.35
sget2 Sanger 0.29

... Eastland...
llet2 Lake Leon 1.13

... Ellis...
jwy Waxahachie AWOS 0.29
lwwt2 Lake Waxahachie 0.28
rsrt2 Rosser 0.50

... Erath...

... Falls...
hibt2 Highbank 2.07

... Fannin...
cddt2 Caddo Grasslands raw 0.12
ladt2 Ladonia 0.07

... Freestone...
stet2 Streetman 0.95

... Grayson...
covt2 Collinsville 0.37
cvet2 Collinsville 0.24
dwht2 desert water coop#2 0.30
gyi Sherman/Denison AWOS 0.20

... Hamilton...
hmlt2 Hamilton 1.02

... Henderson...
f44 Athens AWOS 1.04
rhat2 Athens RAWS 1.01
tddt2 Trinidad 0.88
trnt2 Cedar Creek Lake 0.77

... Hill...
alat2 Aquilla lake 0.48
aqat2 Aquilla creek below 0.39
bbdt2 Brandon 0.67
bumt2 Blum 0.55
inj Hillsboro AWOS 0.47
mlet2 Malone 0.62

... Hood...
gdj Granbury AWOS 0.38
gryt2 Granbury RAWS 0.89

... Hopkins...
slr Sulphur Springs AWOS 0.14
subt2 Sulphur Bluff 0.06

... Hunt...
gelt2 Greenville RAWS 0.13
gnvt2 Greenville 0.12
gvt Greenville AWOS 0.25
lvtt2 Celeste 0.25
msct2 Commerce 0.15
scst2 Commerce 0.19

... Jack...
jakt2 Jacksboro 1.08

... Johnson...
cpt Cleburne AWOS 0.85
vnst2 Venus 0.56

... Kaufman...
cnlt2 Crandall 0.45
kaft2 Kaufman 0.40
trl Terrell ASOS 0.45

... Lamar...
cppt2 Cooper 0.53
myst2 pat mayse dam 0.24
prx Paris AWOS 0.14
roxt2 Roxton 0.13

... Lampasas...
kemt2 Kempner 2.34

... Limestone...
fest2 Freestone 5sw 1.79
grst2 Groesbeck 1.02
llmt2 lake Limestone Marin 1.15
lxy Mexia Airport AWOS 1.01

... Leon...
llst2 lake Limestone 1.75

... McLennan...
act Waco ASOS 0.77
crft2 Crawford 1.06
mcgt2 McGregor 0.95
megt2 McGregor RAWS 1.06

... Milam...
cmnt2 Cameron 1.62

... Mills...

... Montague...
0f2 Bowie AWOS 1.63
bcat2 lake amon Carter 1.24
mgut2 Montague 1.39

... Navarro...
crs Corsicana ASOS 0.91
fflt2 Richland Chambers la 0.65
rcet2 Rice 0.68

... Palo_pinto...

... Parker...
bnct2 Cresson 1.22
dnnt2 Dennis 0.85
wtht2 Weatherford 0.70

... Rains...

... Robertson...
east2 easterly 1.25
lhb Hearne AWOS 2.40
rprt2 Round Prairie RAWS 2.30

... Rockwall...

... Stephens...
hclt2 Hubbard Creek reserv 1.47

... Somervell...
glrt2 Glen Rose 0.87
grot2 Glen Rose 0.70

... Tarrant...
afw ftw Alliance ASOS 1.15
bcht2 Fort Worth 0.94
bmct2 marys creek 1.10
cfbt2 Benbrook 0.70
dfw dfw Airport ASOS 0.68
eamt2 Eagle Mountain Lake 1.52
ermt2 Everman 0.90
ftw ftw Meacham ASOS 1.51
fwht2 Fort Worth 1.01
fwot2 Fort Worth 1.12
gky Arlington ASOS 0.85
gpnt2 Grapevine dam wx sta 0.65
lart2 Lake Arlington 0.92
mnft2 Mansfield 0.66
nfw NAS Fort Worth ASOS 1.36
wftt2 Fort Worth 1.27
wrpt2 Fort Worth federal b 0.41

... Van_zandt...

... Wise...
avot2 Alvord 4ne 1.35
boyt2 Boyd 0.41
brpt2 Bridgeport 1.02
lbjt2 LBJ Grasslands RAWS 0.86
lud Decatur AWOS 0.56
xbp Bridgeport AWOS 1.22

... Young...
sout2 South Bend 1.36



Personal Weather Stations

Personal Weather Stations [Add your weather station!]

Location: Mariner Park, Rowlett, TX

Updated: 11:25 PM CST

Temperature: 59.5 °F Dew Point: 59 °F Humidity: 99% Wind: South at 1.6 mph Pressure: 29.97 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Ravens Nest Subdivision, Rowlett, TX

Updated: 11:24 PM CST

Temperature: 59.4 °F Dew Point: 58 °F Humidity: 97% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.73 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: w7dav Rowlett Toler, Rowlett, TX

Updated: 11:25 PM CST

Temperature: 59.0 °F Dew Point: 59 °F Humidity: 99% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.61 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Pleasent Valley, Sachse, TX

Updated: 11:25 PM CST

Temperature: 58.8 °F Dew Point: 59 °F Humidity: 100% Wind: ESE at 3.0 mph Pressure: 29.76 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Rowlett - Springfield Lakes, Rowlett, TX

Updated: 11:25 PM CST

Temperature: 59.4 °F Dew Point: 56 °F Humidity: 88% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.66 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Oliver, Rowlett, TX

Updated: 11:25 PM CST

Temperature: 58.6 °F Dew Point: 58 °F Humidity: 97% Wind: SE at 1.0 mph Pressure: 29.72 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Heritage Park, Sachse, TX

Updated: 11:25 PM CST

Temperature: 58.3 °F Dew Point: 57 °F Humidity: 97% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.68 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Waters Lane, Rowlett, TX

Updated: 11:23 PM CST

Temperature: 60.3 °F Dew Point: 58 °F Humidity: 92% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.76 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Lakeshore Park Estates, Rowlett, TX

Updated: 11:25 PM CST

Temperature: 55.9 °F Dew Point: 54 °F Humidity: 95% Wind: East at 4.0 mph Pressure: 29.70 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Woodbridge, Sachse, TX

Updated: 11:25 PM CST

Temperature: 59.2 °F Dew Point: 57 °F Humidity: 92% Wind: SE at 2.3 mph Pressure: 29.66 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Westshore Estates, Garland, TX

Updated: 11:25 PM CST

Temperature: 57.8 °F Dew Point: 57 °F Humidity: 96% Wind: South at 1.0 mph Pressure: 29.67 in Hourly Precipitation: 20.51 in Graphs

Location: WoodBridge East - Wylie, TX, Wylie, TX

Updated: 11:17 PM CST

Temperature: 58.9 °F Dew Point: 58 °F Humidity: 95% Wind: SE at 2.0 mph Pressure: 29.77 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Shorehaven, Garland, TX

Updated: 11:25 PM CST

Temperature: 59.4 °F Dew Point: 57 °F Humidity: 93% Wind: ESE at 4.6 mph Pressure: 29.09 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Naaman, Garland, TX

Updated: 11:25 PM CST

Temperature: 57.9 °F Dew Point: 57 °F Humidity: 96% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.71 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Club Creek, Garland, TX

Updated: 7:42 PM CST

Temperature: 61.5 °F Dew Point: 61 °F Humidity: 98% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.04 in Hourly Precipitation: - Graphs

Location: PilotPort, Sachse, TX

Updated: 11:19 PM CST

Temperature: 58.7 °F Dew Point: 57 °F Humidity: 94% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.66 in Hourly Precipitation: - Graphs

Location: Pinnacle 1, Rockwall, TX

Updated: 11:25 PM CST

Temperature: 58.6 °F Dew Point: 57 °F Humidity: 93% Wind: SE at 2.9 mph Pressure: 29.71 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Stiles Ranch - Wylie, TX, Wylie, TX

Updated: 10:25 PM MST

Temperature: 58.6 °F Dew Point: 58 °F Humidity: 97% Wind: SE at 3.0 mph Pressure: 29.69 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Quail Hollow Estates, Sachse, TX

Updated: 11:20 PM CST

Temperature: 58.6 °F Dew Point: 57 °F Humidity: 95% Wind: SE at 4.0 mph Pressure: 29.62 in Hourly Precipitation: - Graphs

Location: Greens - Firewheel, Garland, TX

Updated: 11:19 PM CST

Temperature: 57.9 °F Dew Point: 58 °F Humidity: 99% Wind: ESE at 2.2 mph Pressure: 29.49 in Hourly Precipitation: - Graphs

Location: Rockwall Heath C69, Rockwall, TX

Updated: 10:50 PM CST

Temperature: 59.9 °F Dew Point: - Humidity: - Wind: North at - Pressure: - Hourly Precipitation: - Graphs

Location: Firewheel, Garland, TX

Updated: 11:25 PM CST

Temperature: 59.0 °F Dew Point: 58 °F Humidity: 96% Wind: ESE at 4.0 mph Pressure: 29.66 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Ridgewood Estates, Garland, TX

Updated: 11:21 PM CST

Temperature: 59.0 °F Dew Point: 58 °F Humidity: 98% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.70 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Stone Creek, Rockwall, TX

Updated: 11:23 PM CST

Temperature: 59.6 °F Dew Point: 58 °F Humidity: 95% Wind: SSW at 2.0 mph Pressure: 29.73 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Breckinridge Park East Side, Richardson, TX

Updated: 11:03 PM CST

Temperature: 58.6 °F Dew Point: 58 °F Humidity: 98% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.78 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: McCreay Estates, Wylie, TX

Updated: 11:15 PM CST

Temperature: 58.3 °F Dew Point: 58 °F Humidity: 99% Wind: SSW at 3.2 mph Pressure: 29.73 in Hourly Precipitation: - Graphs

Location: McCreary Estates, Wylie, TX

Updated: 11:25 PM CST

Temperature: 58.8 °F Dew Point: 59 °F Humidity: 99% Wind: East at 2.1 mph Pressure: 29.59 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: RCEC, Rockwall, TX

Updated: 11:25 PM CST

Temperature: 59.2 °F Dew Point: 59 °F Humidity: 100% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.26 in Hourly Precipitation: -0.23 in Graphs

Location: Oakridge, Garland, TX

Updated: 11:25 PM CST

Temperature: 58.1 °F Dew Point: 57 °F Humidity: 97% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.67 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Heath, Texas, FM1140, Heath, TX

Updated: 11:25 PM CST

Temperature: 58.9 °F Dew Point: 58 °F Humidity: 96% Wind: SE at 3.0 mph Pressure: 29.65 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Rambo And Ruth, Wylie, TX

Updated: 11:25 PM CST

Temperature: 60.3 °F Dew Point: 59 °F Humidity: 95% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.23 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Heathen One, Heath, TX

Updated: 11:12 PM CST

Temperature: 59.3 °F Dew Point: 58 °F Humidity: 96% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.72 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Saddlebrook, Richardson, TX

Updated: 11:25 PM CST

Temperature: 58.3 °F Dew Point: 56 °F Humidity: 92% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.67 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Birmingham Farms, Wylie, TX

Updated: 11:22 PM CST

Temperature: 58.6 °F Dew Point: 58 °F Humidity: 96% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.67 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Apollo Arapaho, Garland, TX

Updated: 11:25 PM CST

Temperature: 59.0 °F Dew Point: 56 °F Humidity: 91% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.66 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Rockwall, TX, Rockwall, TX

Updated: 11:23 PM CST

Temperature: 59.9 °F Dew Point: 60 °F Humidity: 99% Wind: SE at 2.0 mph Pressure: 29.76 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Maxwell Creek, Plano, TX

Updated: 11:25 PM CST

Temperature: 58.4 °F Dew Point: 51 °F Humidity: 76% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.68 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Maxwell Creek North, Murphy, TX

Updated: 11:25 PM CST

Temperature: 59.0 °F Dew Point: 57 °F Humidity: 94% Wind: SSE at 2.0 mph Pressure: 29.65 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Western Heights, Garland, TX

Updated: 11:25 PM CST

Temperature: 60.5 °F Dew Point: 57 °F Humidity: 87% Wind: East at 2.5 mph Pressure: 29.28 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

MSN Maps of:

Temp: Dew Point: Humidity Wind Pressure Hr Precip -

NWS Forecaster Discussion




Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas 
950 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014 


Update... 
activity across North Texas continues to diminish in intensity and 
areal coverage. The convection of greatest intensity will remain 
south of the forecast area...though thunderstorms will still 
impact portions of central and East Texas. Elswhere...have reduced 
probability of precipitation and changed thunder mention to isolated. 


25 


&& 


Geology... 
USGS confirms earthquake of magnitude 3.3 occurred near Dallas 
Love Field at 915 PM CST. We have received numerous reports of 
shaking throughout the Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex...and as far 
away as Denison (grayson county). West Gulf river forecast center 
employee in our building noticed computer monitors shaking. 


25 


&& 


Aviation... 
/issued 611 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014/ 
continuous moderate rain with a few embedded lightning strikes 
will continue at all metroplex sites through the next 3 to 4 
hours before ending from west to east. Activity at Waco will 
contain more thunderstorm cells...so it is possible vlifr 
visibility/ceilings may occur before the activity ends there by midnight. 


Otherwise ceilings are all over the place currently. Short-term high- 
res guidance suggests strong subsidence will spread into the area 
during the next couple hours which may completely erode low level 
cloud cover. Confidence on this is low...but given trends to the 
west and southwest will go ahead and show a period of VFR. Ceilings or 
fog may try to redevelop over the region late tonight...but 
southwest winds are never a good direction for dense fog. Will 
show MVFR ceilings/visibility after 9z...but this is a hedge against some of 
the MOS guidance indicating LIFR or vlifr conditions by sunrise. 
Any clouds/fog will clear rapidly after sunrise. 


Winds will be variable through the next hour or two...but should 
become southeasterly at 10-15kt with perhaps briefly higher gusts 
between 2-4z as we get on the backside of the rain complex. Winds 
will lighten and veer to the southwest at 5-10kt after the rain 
ends. 


Concerning westerly Crosswinds on north-S runways on Sunday...there 
is not good model agreement...with the NAM considerably more tame 
with winds than the GFS. We are now in range of the rap...and 
its forecast of 850mb/925mb winds appears to be aligning more with 
the GFS. Since these strong winds are totally dependent on daytime 
heating and mixing to get down to the surface...believe they will 
gradually increase during the late morning and early afternoon 
hours...and likely will not reach their strongest speeds until 
20z/2pm to 00z/6pm. Thus our strong wind forecast is a little more 
delayed than the GFS lamp guidance and a few knots lower. Right 
now our forecast is for 29023g33kt which would limit traffic 
flow...but we will continue to watch the shorter range guidance 
for amendments to this thinking. 


Tr.92 




&& 






Previous discussion... /issued 320 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014/ 
we continue monitoring a strong shortwave over northern Mexico and 
the West Texas Big Bend country. A strong upper jet maximum over 
100 kts remained upstream of the shortwave the first half of today 
and slowed the system down. However...the upper jet maximum will 
round the base of the system and speed it up toward the east- 
northeast the remainder of the afternoon into tonight. The best 
area of middle-upper level diffluence and more persistent convective 
activity has been over central Texas and The Hill Country much of 
the day but is expected to move over much of north and central 
Texas through this evening. Surface- based instability has remained 
virtually non- existent over the much of the County Warning Area due to the cool 
and damp conditions that have persisted since daybreak...though 
weak MUCAPE upwards to 500 j/kg did exist across the southwest 
half of the County Warning Area. 


The main threat from convective activity through this evening will 
be additional localized rainfall amounts between 1 and 3 inches... 
increasing cloud-to-ground lightning...gusty winds greater than 40 
miles per hour and small hail with stronger thunderstorms. We cannot rule a 
low end risk of marginal severe weather across our central Texas 
counties where the stronger large scale ascent and strong westerly 
bulk shear will move overhead by tonight. Southerly boundary layer 
winds have exceeded 40+ kts at times and will eventually veer with 
time with the approach of the strong shortwave. This may lend to 
some partial mixing of stronger winds to the surface and possibly 
a linear convective system by this evening from central into 
southeast Texas. These areas are where low level dew points and 
ambient surface temperatures are expected to be higher as well. 
Otherwise...our highest concern will be localized flooding...mostly 
low lying areas and smaller creeks that can rise quickly. 


The shortwave will progressively move faster tonight as the 
strongest upper jet winds upwards of 120 kts shift downstream and 
move it along. We held on to previous forecast trends of highest 
rain chances across the eastern half of the County Warning Area this evening with 
a rapid west to east end to the convective chances overnight as 
the shortwave disturbance dampens and lifts rapidly toward the 
lower Mississippi Valley by sunrise Sunday with subsidence 
arriving into north central Texas. The clearing skies and initial 
light south-southwest winds overnight should allow for the 
development of some patchy fog across mainly the northeast half of 
the area. With westerly winds increasing after sunrise...we do not 
expect any fog to persist into the later morning hours. 


Plentiful sunshine is expected on Sunday with very gusty westerly 
winds and warmer temperatures. The pressure gradient is expected to 
be tight with good unidirectional momentum Transfer to help bring 
stronger westerly flow down to the surface. We did raise wind 
speeds on Sunday and it is possible that a Wind Advisory may need 
to be issued in later forecasts. How warm highs rise on Sunday is 
a challenge with the saturated soils across the area. The true 
cold front arrives late in the day and definitely by Sunday night 
with brisk and cooler conditions Monday. Winds settle down later 
in the day Monday with continue dry and cool conditions persisting 
into Tuesday as another strong shortwave deepens the upper trough 
over the area. Moisture will be meager and we do not expect any 
additional rain chances across the area. 


The larger scale longwave trough moves east of the area Wednesday 
into Thanksgiving day with highs moderating back into the 60s. 
Another strong shortwave will move southeast over the plains and 
drive another cold front into the area late Friday with cooler and 
continued dry conditions returning for the remainder of the Holiday 
weekend. 


05/ 






&& 




Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 58 73 43 63 38 / 40 5 0 5 5 
Waco, Texas 55 76 42 64 36 / 70 0 0 5 5 
Paris, Texas 58 70 41 59 36 / 40 10 5 5 5 
Denton, Texas 53 72 39 62 36 / 30 10 5 5 5 
McKinney, Texas 58 71 39 62 36 / 30 10 5 5 5 
Dallas, Texas 58 74 43 62 39 / 40 5 0 5 5 
Terrell, Texas 58 73 41 62 37 / 50 10 0 5 5 
Corsicana, Texas 57 75 42 64 37 / 70 5 0 5 5 
Temple, Texas 55 77 42 64 37 / 70 0 0 5 5 
Mineral Wells, Texas 51 72 36 62 35 / 30 5 0 5 5 


&& 


Forward watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 


&& 


$$ 


92/25 



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