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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Thursday
• 
• High: 75 °
• Low: 46 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Friday
• 
• High: 64 °
• Low: 41 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Saturday
• 
• High: 72 °
• Low: 45 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Sunday
• 
• High: 72 °
• Low: 48 °
• Clear

• Monday
• 
• High: 73 °
• Low: 63 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Charleston WV 
641 am EDT Thursday may 23 2013 


Synopsis... 
weak cold front exits first thing this morning. Second cold front 
crosses this evening. Upper disturbance crosses early Friday 
morning. Cool Canadian high pressure arrives to start the weekend. 


&& 


Near term /through tonight/... 
630 am update... 
forecast on track. 


Previous discussion... 
a cold front was barely discernible at the surface as it moved 
across the forecast area overnight...stretching from eastern Ohio 
southward across central WV early this morning. Nonetheless...surface 
and deep layer moisture decrease a bit from Wednesday...so atmosphere will 
not be quite as unstable as on Wednesday. Even so...with 35 kts low-middle 
level flow and wbz slowly falling through 9kft could still lead to 
gusty winds and small hail from thunderstorms this afternoon into 
this evening. 


It is a surface cold front driven by a pair of upper level disturbances 
crossing the area this afternoon and evening that will provide the 
forcing mechanism for the precipitation. The first short wave trough 
activates convection in the western portion of the forecast area by 
early afternoon...and moves on east across the area during the 
afternoon. There will be a little further drying taking place once 
that short wave crosses. 


Second short wave trough follows behind surface cold front tonight...with a 
second round of convection likely along/ahead of the front this 
evening. The potential for convection will end with the passage of 
the cold front...but anafront showers are likely to persist behind 
the front overnight...especially in the mountains as dawn approaches 
Friday. 


Raised temperatures a bit today to reflect the latest guidance. 
Little change needed on lows tonight but finessed hourly 
temperatures to reflect passage of the cold front. Have Snowshoe 
dropping to the middle 30s by dawn Sat has 850 mb temperatures drop toward 
0c. 


&& 


Short term /Friday through Saturday night/... 
drier...cooler weather to set up across the region behind the 
exiting upper trough. 850mb temperatures will drop into the single digits 
Friday night...some of the coolest air we have seen in a few weeks. 
This...along with high pressure settling into the region...and a 
clearing sky...will see good radiational cooling Friday night...and 
frost/freeze headlines may be needed in many 
locations...particularly across the north. In mountainous 
counties...this would mainly affect sheltered valleys...as nocturnal 
low level jet should prevent frost formation. Will highlight the potential for 
frost/freeze in the severe weather potential statement. Fly in the ointment however will be the 
potential for middle and high clouds moving into the area from an upper 
disturbance. This may prevent frost formation particularly across 
eastern Kentucky...southwest Virginia...and southern Coal fields of WV. 


Could see a slight chance for showers Sunday morning across southern 
zones...but for now...much of the energy and moisture associated 
with this looks to remain off to our west...so for now will maintain 
a dry forecast Sunday morning. 


&& 


Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/... 
have generally followed wpc thinking for this portion of the 
forecast. 


High pressure will be in control of the weather across the area into 
Sunday night. However...models suggest a few weak middle-level 
shortwave may move southeast. Believe area should remain dry...with 
a few more clouds beginning Saturday night 


A warm front will then develop and approach the region on Monday. As 
a result...there will be a chance of showers and storms Monday and 
Tuesday...mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. 


Temperatures on Saturday should be near normal with daytime highs in 
the 70s across The Lowlands...with 60s across the higher 
elevations. As the high pushes east on Sunday...expect temperatures 
to warm to slightly above normal values Monday and Tuesday. 


&& 


Aviation /12z Thursday through Monday/... 
patchy MVFR/IFR stratus middle Ohio Valley first thing this morning 
may also impact the central Appalachians...before mixing 
higher...allowing for VFR middle to late morning. 


Another front approaching from the west this afternoon will give rise 
to convection again this afternoon and evening...bringing MVFR and 
localized IFR conditions...and possibly gusty winds. 


Light SW flow this morning will become west and a bit gusty this 
afternoon...as a surface trough moves through...and then west to northwest and 
gusty tonight...as a cold front moves through. Light SW flow aloft 
this morning will become west late today...and then moderate northwest 
overnight tonight. 


Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 12z Friday... 


Forecast confidence...medium to high. 


Alternate scenarios: formation...extent and then breaking up of 
stratus this morning could vary. Timing and degree of flight 
restrictions due to convection this afternoon into this evening 
could vary. Timing and extent of MVFR /or lower/ stratocu forming 
later tonight could also vary. 


Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency 
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information: 
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model. 
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models. 
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model. 


UTC 1hrly 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 
EDT 1hrly 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 
crw consistency h h M M h h h h M h h h 
heights consistency M M M M h h h M h h h M 
bkw consistency h M h M M M h h h h M h 
ekn consistency h h h h M M h h h h h h 
pkb consistency M M M h h h h h M h h h 
ckb consistency M h M M M h h h h h h h 


After 12z Friday... 
IFR conditions possible in fog early Saturday morning. 


&& 


Rlx watches/warnings/advisories... 
WV...none. 
Ohio...none. 
Kentucky...none. 
Virginia...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...trm/sl 
near term...trm 
short term...sl 
long term...arj 
aviation...trm