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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Sunday
• 
• High: 63 °
• Low: 37 °
• Fog

• Monday
• 
• High: 73 °
• Low: 50 °
• Chance of a Thunderstorm

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 73 °
• Low: 55 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 73 °
• Low: 54 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Thursday
• 
• High: 82 °
• Low: 59 °
• Chance of T-Storms

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Charleston WV 
122 am EDT sun may 26 2013 


Synopsis... 
high pressure remain in charge through Sunday. Warm front lifts 
through the area Monday and Monday night. In its wake...increasing 
heat and humidity Tuesday through the end of the week. 


&& 


Near term /through today/... 
1 am update... added some sprinkles to extreme western County Warning Area per 
light radar returns there. 


Previous discussion... 
elected to expand frost advection to Ohio River across north lowlands for 
tonight. Dewpoints currently running 34 to 35f up there. With guidance 
showing pkb and ckb in the middle 30s...feel good about outlying 
areas for frost especially considering out rural many of those Colorado 
are and are typical cold spots for the area. Middle/hi clouds will continue 
to affect NE Kentucky/S WV/SW Virginia tonight with dewpoints safely out of frost 
zone at this time. Somewhat concerned regarding north extent of cirrus 
upstream but models indicate this thinning out as it approaches southeast 
Ohio and north WV. Mountain valleys may dip below freeze tonight but some warm air advection aloft 
to keep higher up above freeze...hence no upgrade to frost advection for 
Randolph and Pocahontas. Will mention in advection mountain valleys may dip 
below freeze. Will probably also see some river fog where clouds stay out. 


More of same for tomorrow with middle/hi clouds across generally same 
areas as today. Models are tightly clustered for highs tomorrow which 
is in really good agreement with inherited numbers from previous 
shift...thus no change needed. 


&& 


Short term /tonight through Tuesday/... 
models showing a warm front lifting northward across the area Monday 
and Monday night. Some disagreement between the models on timing. 
GFS is slowest of the models...with the other models showing less 
spread. Will use a blend of the models...but not include the GFS. 
Model dynamics are not impressive with the frontal passage...with 
better dynamics northwest of the forecast area. Therefore...will 
keep probability of precipitation on the lower side. 


&& 


Long term /Tuesday night through Saturday/... 
shortwave moving through the Great Lakes Tuesday night and associated 
surface low pushing north into Canada extends a weak boundary from 
southeast Ohio through central WV Tuesday night into Wednesday am...held probability of precipitation 
overnight Tuesday into Wednesday afternoon with boundary exiting to the 
north and SW flow from high pressure building over west Atlantic 
enhancing upslope over eastern mountains...with moisture advection from SW flow 
around the periphery of the high across mountain on Thursday...increased 
probability of precipitation slightly from Thursday after into Thursday evening...more of the same 
for Friday after and evening over the eastern counties...models in general 
agreement of strength and coverage of front approaching next 
weekend...with the GFS more progressive than the Euro by the end of 
the period by about 12-18hrs...went with a mix of the two overnight 
Sat into sun. 


&& 


Aviation /05z Sunday through Thursday/... 
continued idea of persistence forecast for fog early this 
morning...keeping it in locations that saw MVFR/IFR fog Saturday 
morning too. Otherwise...VFR expected today into tonight with some 
middle level clouds working through across the west and south. Calm 
winds overnight will give way to light north/northwest flow late this morning 
through the afternoon...before returning to calm after sunset 
tonight. 


Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 06z Monday... 


Forecast confidence...high. 


Alternate scenarios: timing and density of early morning fog may 
vary. 


Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency 
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information: 
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model. 
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models. 
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model. 


Date sun 05/26/13 
UTC 1hrly 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 
EDT 1hrly 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 
crw consistency h h h M M M h h h h h h 
heights consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h 
bkw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h 
ekn consistency M l l l l l l h h h h h 
pkb consistency h h M l l l M h h h h h 
ckb consistency h h M l l l M h h h h h 


After 06z Monday... 
no widespread IFR expected. 


&& 


Rlx watches/warnings/advisories... 
WV...frost advisory until 8 am EDT this morning for wvz011-019-020- 
028>032-038>040-046-047. 
Ohio...none. 
Kentucky...none. 
Virginia...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...rpy/30/jm 
near term...jmv/30 
short term...rpy 
long term...jm 
aviation...mz