056 
FXUS64 KBMX 211133
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
530 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009

.UPDATED...FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN THE ONLY THING WE'RE SEEING THIS MORNING ACROSS
ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...AHEAD OF OUR APPROACHING SYSTEM.  THE
SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY SITS OUT OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
THAT IS WHERE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS LOCATED.  RADAR IS SHOWING
SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
THAT LOOKS LIKE IT WANTS TO COME INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...
BUT AS DRY AS IT IS...ESPECIALLY ALOFT...MOST OF THESE RETURNS WILL
DRY UP BEFORE THEY REACH THE GROUND.  THIS WILL CHANGE AS WE MOVE
ALONG THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT CHANGE IN
TIMING.  MEX GUIDANCE CAME IN MUCH SLOWER TONIGHT AND I AM INCLINED
TO FOLLOW SUIT AS DRY AS IT IS...SO I WILL BACK OFF RAIN FOR TODAY
AND PUSH MOST OF IT OFF UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  AS
FAR AS TONIGHT IS CONCERNED...AND REALLY FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THIS
SYSTEM...WE SHOULD ONLY SEE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL AS WE WILL
REMAIN IN AN EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...WHICH MEANS WE STAY
OUT OF ANY WARM SECTOR AND REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE.

SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE ONE OF THOSE CLOUDY...DRIZZLY DAYS AS THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE IN NO HURRY TO PUSH OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT MOST EVERYONE DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...AND PROBABLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY INTO THE DAY
ON MONDAY.  WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE IN FOR THE EXTREME NORTHEAST
COUNTIES UNTIL MIDDAY MONDAY...AND THIS IS JUST TO COINCIDE WITH THE
OVERALL SLOW DOWN OF THE SYSTEM.

RAINFALL TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE HEAVIEST ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST AS
THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF THE CWA.  STORM TOTALS
SHOULD NOT EXCEED 1.5 - 2 INCHES ANYWHERE IN OUR AREA...WITH MOST
EVERYONE SEEING ABOUT ONE INCH.

TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD FALL A COUPLE OF DEGREES
BELOW NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS CLOUD COVER SHOULD INHIBIT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WARM UP.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND ON MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

MONDAYS SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER ROCKY
MOUNTAIN SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS LOW...BUT ALL INDICATIONS ARE
THAT IT WILL DRY UP BEFORE IT EVEN GETS HERE...LEAVING RAIN CHANCES
ON TUESDAY FAIRLY LOW. THE ONE THING IT WILL BRING WITH IT IS SOME
DRIER AIR AND COOLER TEMPERATURES...BUT NOT THE COOLEST OF THE
WEEK. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN THAT PRODUCES TUESDAYS SHORTWAVE IS
PROGGED TO ROTATE ANOTHER VORT MAX NORTH OF THE STATE...WHICH
SHOULD GIVE CENTRAL ALABAMA A SECONDARY SHOT OF DRY AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS ARE SETTING UP TO BE
THE COOLEST OF THE WEEK...BUT STILL NOT EXPECTING THINGS TO GET
COLD ENOUGH FOR A FREEZE.

THE GOOD NEWS IN ALL OF THIS IS THAT ONCE WE GET THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND'S WEATHER MAKER...THE REMAINDER OF THANKSGIVING WEEK LOOKS
TO BE DRY.

27

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND APPROACH THE COASTAL
SECTIONS BY LATER TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO THE
SOUTHWEST SECTIONS AND BECOME NUMEROUS AFTER 18Z AT MGM AND
TOI. SHOWERS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD ALL SECTIONS AFTER
00Z. CEILINGS ABOVE 10000 FEET WILL LOWER TO 5000 FEET AT ALL SITES
BY 18Z.  AS SHOWERS INCREASE MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS DEVELOP...MAINLY
AFTER 00Z AT ALL SITES.

KSL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     58  46  56  45  64 /  20  80  60  40  20
ANNISTON    61  47  56  44  64 /  20  90  60  40  20
BIRMINGHAM  61  48  56  45  65 /  30  80  50  30  10
TUSCALOOSA  60  50  60  46  68 /  40  80  40  20  10
CALERA      59  50  57  45  65 /  40  90  40  20  10
AUBURN      60  49  57  46  65 /  60 100  50  30  10
MONTGOMERY  61  51  62  47  69 /  70  90  40  20  10
TROY        61  51  62  47  69 /  80  90  30  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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