410 
fxus61 kbtv 151839 
afdbtv 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Burlington Vermont 
239 PM EDT Monday Mar 15 2010 


Synopsis... 
low pressure off the New England coast will slide offshore tonight 
as high pressure builds south and east from Canada. As a 
result...expect improving conditions as skies trend clear overnight 
along with light winds. High pressure will then remain in control 
through the end of the work week with clear to partly cloudy skies 
and unseasonably mild temperatures continuing. 


&& 


Near term /through tonight/... 
as of 230 PM EDT Monday...forecast remains essentially on track for the 
overnight period as 996 mb low pressure offshore near 38.5n/-72.0w 
drifts slowly east-southeast and away from the region. As a result...expect 
deeper moisture to wane and sink southward overnight as flow aloft 
backs from the east to north/northeast through time. Will maintain 
at least the threat of a few showers across our far southeastern Vermont zones 
through the early evening hours...though the remainder of the area 
should stay dry as clouds slowly trend pc/clear from north to south. 
Have offered a blended MOS solution for min temperatures...though have leaned 
toward the milder end of guidance given recent model warm biases and 
the fact that wet ground and light winds may allow near saturation 
and possbl patchy br/fog in the near surface layer overnight. 


&& 


Short term /Tuesday through Wednesday night/... 
as of 230 PM EDT Monday...outstanding stretch of weather then expected by 
Tuesday/Wednesday time frame as deep layer high pressure builds 
east/southeast from the upper Great Lakes/SC Canada with mainly 
clear/sunny conds expected. With gradual warming in the 925-850 mb 
layer and deeper boundary layer mixing maximum temperatures should respond nicely with 
highs well into the 50s on both days...especially on Wednesday when a few locns 
may near the 60 degree mark. Despite ample radiational cooling 
overnight lack of snow cover and appreciable cold air source should 
prevent low temperatures dropping all that much (20s to around 30). Thus 
anomalous warm departures of +10 to +15 degree should continue in the 
daily avgs. Only notable adjustment was to lower MOS afternoon dew point/relative humidity 
levels across the board Tuesday/Wednesday given aforementioned deeper mixing 
and current dew point values noted across SC Canada beneath upper ridge 
axis. Enjoy. 


&& 


Long term /Thursday through Monday/... 
as of 239 PM EDT Monday...main weather feature in the extended will be 
potential for well above normal temps(+10 f to +20 f)...for both 
daytime highs and overngt lows for the entire County Warning Area. Weak frontal 
boundary skirts northern portions of the County Warning Area on Thursday. Limited 
quantitative precipitation forecast west/ blocking ridge to the south...so will keep sl chance for 
-rw. Rest of the forecast area will see limited cloud cover allowing 
for near full Sunshine. Ridge in place after that right into the 
weekend...sliding off the coast by Saturday morning. This will 
allow for strong warm air advection to work into the area. Another weak front tries 
to push south Friday night...but low too far into Quebec. Models show 
weak warm front fall apart as it lifts north through the County Warning Area Saturday. 
-Rw/cloud cover limited for frontal passage...but does linger along the 
canadain border...so will put in sl chance for --rw. Models have 850 
temperatures surge for Sat into Sunday ahead of low diving into the 
Central Plains. West/ southern flow going into evening hours thinking 
overngt lows too cool so will up by several degrees...especially 
in valley locales where southern winds will help to keep temperatures 
from dropping. Potential for highs to hit near 60f the entire County Warning Area. 
Surface low begins trek northward towards evening hours. Will have probability of precipitation 
increase from west to east as frontal passage occurs Sun night into Monday. Wrap-around 
moisture on Monday make fall as -SW in spots as colder air dives 
into area...but should confined to hir elev. 


&& 


Aviation /19z Monday through Saturday/... 
through 18z Tuesday...VFR conditions expected at all forecast sites through 
05z-06z Tuesday. During this timeframe...ceilings bkn040-080 will 
eventually scattered out from north to S as coastl low pulls away from the 
area. Krut may see a few -rw west/ no reduction to visibility expected. North-northeast 
winds over the area will diminish from 10-20kts to lgt/var. After 
05z-06z Tuesday...with abundant low level moisture and light winds...fog 
will develop that will lower visibility/ceilings down to IFR/MVFR 
conditions. Visibility down to 3-5sm through 12z Tuesday...W/ kmpv/kslk seeing 
down to 1sm at times. After 12z-13z Tuesday VFR skies with north-northeast winds 
5-10kts. 


Outlook 18z Tuesday through Friday...other than some MVFR/IFR 
conditions early Tuesday morning...VFR conditions are expected through 
the entire period as high pressure builds in from the northwest. 


&& 


Btv watches/warnings/advisories... 
Vermont...none. 
New York...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...jmg 
near term...jmg 
short term...jmg 
long term...jn 
aviation...evenson/jn