631 
fxus64 kmrx 151841 
afdmrx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Morristown Tennessee 
241 PM EDT Monday Mar 15 2010 


Short term...(tonight and tuesday)...a persistent trough of low 
pressure off the middle-Atlantic coast will bring another weak wave of 
energy across the forecast area overnight. An area of light 
precipitation is evident over West Virginia moving south toward 
southwest Virginia. The precipitation will be mainly in the form of 
rain...but the higher elevations (above 3000 feet) of High Knob and 
Smoky Mountains will see snow. Marginal temperatures will limit snow 
accumulations to 1 inch or less at the highest locations. 


A weak ridge of high pressure will build into the forecast area for 
Tuesday with dry conditions a warming trend. Enough low level 
moisture will keep skies mostly to partly cloudy. 


Long term...(tuesday night through monday)...models in decent 
agreement with overall pattern for the long term. Early in the 
period we have two upper troughs to deal with...one ejecting out of 
the southwest and one dropping down from the western Great Lakes. 
The core of both should pass to our south. Models try to bring a few 
hundredths of an inch of precipitation to the area early in the long term 
period...but since not much forcing is evident will lean toward 
drier sref solution and only carry slight chance to low chance probability of precipitation 
Wednesday...and slight chance southeast zones Wednesday night. Ridging should 
begin building in on Thursday...providing dry weather into at least 
the first part of Saturday. Models in some disagreement for timing 
of next front...so for now will compromise and carry slight chance 
probability of precipitation Sat afternoon...then chance Sat night and sun. Will go dry 
behind this system on Monday for now. GFS MOS temperatures generally look 
reasonable...so will not stray far. 




&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Chattanooga Airport, Tennessee 41 58 45 59 43 / 0 10 10 20 10 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, Tennessee 41 56 43 57 43 / 10 10 10 20 10 
Oak Ridge, Tennessee 41 56 42 57 42 / 10 10 10 20 10 
Tri Cities Airport, Tennessee 38 53 38 54 40 / 20 10 10 20 10 


&& 


Mrx watches/warnings/advisories... 
NC...none. 
Tennessee...none. 
Virginia...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Dh/ldw