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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm 
1051 am MDT Monday Mar 15 2010 


Update... 
will expire/cancel all headlines except for the Sacramento mts... 
where an additional 1 to 3 inches are likely above 8000 feet. Light 
snow will continue along and south of Interstate 40...however the 
threat for significant snow accumulations has diminished outside 
of the higher terrain. Will update the west-southwest and zone forecast product prior to noon. 
Dporter 


&& 


Previous discussion...320 am MDT Monday Mar 15 2010... 
strong upper level low has been sluggishly churning 
over northwestern New Mexico...and has only recently started to 
jog farther south into west central sections of the state. 
Precipitation shield is swelling over the northern and central 
sections of the forecast area...and this will translate 
southeastward through the day as the low makes it toward the 
southeast corner of the state by the late afternoon. 


Several areas have already met warning criteria in the north 
central zones with snowfall accumulations...and confidence remains 
high that the central mountains...Highlands...and gradually the 
south central mountains will meet warning criteria. Am a little 
concerned that pockets of moderate to occasionally heavy snow will 
continue into at least the late morning hours over the 
sangres/jemez...so have extended this warning segment until the late 
afternoon. As expected...temperatures and dewpoints have remained 
relatively high in the east central to southeastern plains...and 
these areas may still have difficulty changing over to snow as the 
precipitation continues to spread into the area later this 
morning. Will stay cautious...and will keep advisory in tact 
across the northeastern and east Central Plains...but will expire 
this segment of the advisory at 18z as well as other remaining 
advisory segments in the Rio Grande and adjacent areas. Some other 
individual lower terrain zones could also be expired by late 
morning as temperatures and snow levels rise...but will let day 
shift monitor these trends and adjust as needed. Have undercut MOS 
guidance for temperature forecasts today...especially over locales 
that have already acquired significant snow pack. Snow levels will 
be quite variable...but could reach ranges as high as 6000 to 7000 
feet in some of the central zones. 


While the bulk of the precipitation will be shifting into West 
Texas after dark...there will be some lingering light shower 
activity along the central mountains and some moderate scattered 
activity holding over the southeastern plains. Northerly flow 
aloft will prevail for Tuesday...and a broad 582 dam upper level 
ridge will build into the southwestern states. This will keep dry 
conditions in place...and rising heights/thicknesses will lead to 
a warm up. Have again undercut temperature guidance in many areas 
that are expected to have snow pack through Tuesday. 


This warmer ridging trend continues into Wednesday and into most 
of Thursday before a clipper quickly sweeps to the north of the 
state. Precipitation still looks to favor the northern and 
eastern zones while breezy to windy conditions develop over a 
larger footprint of the state. Drier air will then work into the 
state from west to east Saturday and Sunday as the upper pattern 
is subjected to a dampened ridging scenario. 


52 


Aviation... 
upper low to make a very slow progression through central and 
southern New Mexico today. Widespread MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities 
expected over much of northern and central New Mexico with 
occasional LIFR conditions in the heavier snow bands. Improving 
conditions will follow for the northwest and northern portion of the 
state later this afternoon and evening but conditions will 
deteriorate across the south and southeast as rain and or snow 
showers increase in coverage especially near krow this morning and 
afternoon. Ceilings and visibilities will improve for all areas after 06z 
Tuesday. Areas of fog may develop overnight and into early Tuesday 
favoring the east slopes of the Central Mountain chain...northern 
and central valleys and east Central Plains and Highlands. 


Next aviation discussion scheduled for 21z. Kw 


Fire weather... 
threat for critical fire weather is low through the next week. 


Main upper level storm system will translate slowly through New 
Mexico today and tonight with high chances for wetting precipitation 
continuing. Areas along the east slopes of the Central Mountain 
chain will be favored for additional moderate to significant 
snowfall accumulations as well as the east Central Plains and 
Highlands. Drying will gradually settle in from northwest to 
southeast overnight with precipitation ending well after 06z Tuesday 
across the southeast plains. Overnight recoveries will be excellent 
state wide. 


Upper level ridge will build into the state from the west by Tuesday 
and continue into Thursday. Ample warming will follow by Wednesday 
and Thursday with afternoon high temperatures running a few degrees 
above normal for most locales. Ventilation rates will likely be poor 
while the ridge builds over the state but rates will begin to 
improve by Thursday as forecast models indicate a break down of the 
ridge leading to more zonal or even slightly southwest flow pattern 
aloft. 


The next trough of low pressure is forecast by the European model (ecmwf) to pass 
well to the north of the state. As the system bypasses the state...a 
back door cold front could ooze in from the northeast during Friday. 
This front could bring increasing moisture mainly to the northeast 
and east plains while breezy conditions take shape ahead of the 
boundary. 


Long range ecwmf and GFS indicate a more benign synoptic scale 
pattern through the weekend and into the middle part of next week as 
the flow aloft flattens. This would favor at least breezy and drier 
conditions across the high terrain and eastern plains. 


Kw 


&& 


Abq watches/warnings/advisories... 
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for the following 
zones...nmz526. 


&& 


$$ 


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