245 
fxus61 kcar 131013 
afdcar 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Caribou ME 
513 am EST Sat Mar 13 2010 


Synopsis... 
high pressure will move northeast of the region today through 
tonight. Low pressure will track south of the region 
Sunday...bringing a chance of rain to downeast areas. High 
pressure will then build back across the region Monday through 
Tuesday. 
&& 


Near term /through tonight/... 
surface/upper level ridging will gradually move northeast of the 
region today through tonight...while low pressure remains along 
the middle Atlantic coast. The surface/upper ridging will keep 
moisture from the low southwest of the region through early 
tonight. Skies will be mostly sunny across the forecast area today. 
Moisture will begin to gradually expand northeastward bringing 
increasing cloudiness to downeast areas overnight. Nearer the 
retreating ridge...skies will remain mostly clear across northern 
areas tonight. Winds will increase across downeast areas today 
through tonight...with the tightening pressure gradient between 
the exiting ridge and middle Atlantic low. High temperatures today 
will range from the middle to upper 40s north...to the upper 40s to 
around 50 interior downeast...with middle 40s along the downeast 
coast where easterly onshore winds will help produce cooler 
temperatures. Low temperatures tonight will range through the 
teens north...to the middle 20s to around 30 downeast. 
&& 


Short term /Sunday through Monday/... 
strong high pressure to the north of the state at the beginning 
of this period. At the same time intensifying low pressure 
positioned over the Middle Atlantic States. Low pressure is captured 
by upper low and will drift slowly to the east into the Atlantic 
through the day Monday. Expect the southwestern portion of the 
forecast area to be along the northern edge of precipitation. 
Strong pressure gradient in place so expect gusty winds. BUFKIT 
mixes maximum of 35 to 40 miles per hour down to surface Sunday night into 
Monday across downeast and interior downeast zones. Have used the 
gmos to initialize wind grids and have made some adjustments based 
on BUFKIT mixing. For probability of precipitation have used a blend of the NAM...GFS and 
sref. Will base precipitation type on surface temperature. For 
temperature and dew point have used nam12 will use a blend of NAM 
and GFS for quantitative precipitation forecast. 
&& 


Long term /Monday night through Friday/... 
low pressure continues to move eastward into the Atlantic at the 
beginning of this forecast period. High pressure remains centered 
well west of New England but ridges across the region...so expect 
dry conditions into early next week. Next short wave expected to 
approach from northwest Thursday. Will use gmos to initialize all 
grids. Have adjusted pop...sky and wind gust grids. 
&& 


Aviation /08z Saturday through Wednesday/... 
near term: VFR conditions are expected across northern areas today 
through tonight. VFR conditions are expected across downeast areas 
today through much of tonight...with occasional MVFR conditions 
possible starting very late tonight. 


Short term: MVFR conditions possible Sunday into Sunday night 
kbgr and kbhb...otherwise expect VFR conditions. 
&& 


Marine... 
near term: winds/seas will steadily increase across the waters 
today through tonight. Small Craft Advisory conditions will begin 
to develop this afternoon...then further strengthen tonight. 
Conditions will begin to approach gale levels later tonight. 
Visibilities could begin to lower in developing rain late tonight. 


Short term: strong low level jet across the waters into Monday. 
BUFKIT indicates good mixing at 44027. Will use a blend of nam12 
and gfs40. Will increase wind speeds 2 to 3 knots above model 
blend. Will base wind gust speed on BUFKIT mixing into low level 
jet. Will issue Gale Warning and extend to 18z Monday. For waves: 
have initialized grids with wna/4. Very impressive fetch to the 
southeast of the waters with position of high pressure axis from 
Maritimes southeast into Atlantic. Wind wave may be a little under 
done in wave model with good mixing in Gulf of Maine so will 
increase wave height 1 to 2 feet above model numbers. Also suspect 
long wave group will persist into early Wednesday so will increase 
wave height to end of forecast period. 
&& 


Fire weather... 
dry conditions will persist across the forecast area today. Easterly 
winds will increase across downeast areas today. However...the 
onshore winds should help bring slightly cooler temperatures and 
slightly more low level moisture to downeast areas...particularly 
along the coast. Do not expect any fire weather headlines will be 
required downeast today. However...conditions will have to be 
monitored...across particularly interior downeast areas this 
afternoon...in case humidity levels remain lower than expected. 
&& 


Car watches/warnings/advisories... 
ME...none. 
Marine...Gale Warning from 6 am Sunday to 2 PM EDT Monday for 
anz050>052. 


&& 


$$ 
Near term...Norcross 
short term...mignone 
long term...mignone 
aviation...Norcross 
marine...Norcross/mignone 
fire weather...Norcross