274 
fxus63 kgld 220746 
afdgld 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Goodland Kansas 
1246 am MST sun Nov 22 2009 


Discussion... 
1246 am MST sun Nov 22 2009 


700 mb-300 mb divergence q/water vapor satellite suggests limited insolation 
through at least 18-19z as a shortwave trough translates east across 
the central rockies and over the Central High plains. A sprinkle may 
be possible, but deep moist prolonged saturation is not anticipated 
before forcing for subsidence kicks in after 18-20z. Will likely 
carry a morning fog/dz mention across the eastern zones where a 
narrow moist tongue has advected into the area in convergent east-southeast 
flow NE of surface low which is prognosticated to develop east-southeast through late 
morning. 


As this first shortwave trough ejects quickly northeast into the 
upper Mississippi Valley area tonight, another robust trough over 
the pacnw is prognosticated to dig into the northern plains after 04-06z. 
The GFS appears to be a compromise between NAM/ec with placement of 
500 mb low with support from the 18z gefs keeping the 500 mb trough north of 
the forecast area. This would result in a more subsident regime 
across much of the Central High plains and raises concerns for 
strong northwest winds on Monday afternoon. A secondary concern will be 
the potential for light snow weighted over the northeast zones, 
however strong forcing for subsidence will exist in the 700 mb-300 mb layer 
likely limiting the potential for significant accumulations of snow 
with a narrow window Monday night for -sn/flurries as h65 mixing ratios 
are steered into the area. Left a mention of flurries early Tuesday to 
account for a slower departure of the middle/upper trough. 


Tue-Wed...shortwave ridging will return to the Central High plains 
on Tuesday and followed the previous trend of warming maximum values 
with readings near normal or in the upper 40s/around 50. A clipper 
system is prognosticated to dig rapidly southeast into the northern 
plains/upper Mississippi Valley area on Wednesday driving a cold front 
south into the Central High plains. Surface mixing ratios/low level 
trajectories support trending maximum values down on Wednesday. 


Days 5 through 7...no changes. 


McGuire 


&& 


Aviation... 
438 PM MST Sat Nov 21 2009 


For the 00z taf cycle...VFR conditions are expected to prevail 
throughout the entire taf period for kgld...while IFR to LIFR 
ceilings will be present between 10z and 15z just east of kmck and 
will need to be watched for possible amendments to the kmck 
taf. Outside of this 10z to 15z time frame...no other issues will 
impact VFR flight conditions for both taf sites. 


Blm 
&& 


Gld watches/warnings/advisories... 
Kansas...none. 
NE...none. 
Colorado...none. 
&& 


$$