229 
fxus66 kmfr 150857 
afdmfr 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Medford or 
200 am PDT Monday Mar 15 2010 


Discussion...the upper level ridge axis will remain just to our east 
over Idaho today. Increasing southerly flow will allow varying 
amounts of high cloud to spread across the region. Expect afternoon 
high temperatures to be generally 3 to 6 degrees warmer than Sunday. 


A front will approach the coast Monday night then move inland 
Tuesday afternoon. With most of the energy passing by to our north 
the surface front will weaken considerably as it approaches the 
Cascades Tuesday afternoon. This system is lacking moisture and 
right now all the models show generally less than a half inch of 
rain along the coast and Coast Range...then much less further inland. 


On Wednesday a ridge will develop near the coast and a much drier 
northerly flow will spread over the region. 


Looking out to the extended period (thursday through 
sunday)...models have been pretty consistent the past couple of days 
keeping the longwave ridge position near the coast Thursday through 
Friday then beginning to weaken Saturday. 500mb ensemble mean 
indicates that by Sunday more of a zonal pattern develops across the 
east Pacific with increasing short wave activity impacting the 
Pacific northwest. 


&& 


Aviation...VFR conditions will prevail across the region through 
Monday. 


&& 


Mfr watches/warnings/advisories... 
or...none. 


California...none. 


Pacific coastal waters...Small Craft Advisory for winds from 8 PM 
this evening to 11 am PDT Tuesday for pzz356. 
Hazardous seas watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday 
morning for pzz350-356-370-376. 
Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 3 PM PDT Tuesday 
for pzz350-356-370-376. 
Small Craft Advisory for winds from 8 PM this evening to 9 PM 
PDT Tuesday for pzz350-370. 
Small Craft Advisory for winds from 8 PM this evening to 3 PM 
PDT Tuesday for pzz376. 


$$ 


Rah/mts