504 
fxus65 ktwc 131629 
afdtwc 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tucson Arizona 
925 am MST Sat Mar 13 2010 


Synopsis...dry and warm conditions today. Thereafter...a low 
pressure system will bring a few showers to areas mainly northeast 
of Tucson Sunday and Sunday night. The system will also bring gusty 
afternoon winds to the area this afternoon and more so Sunday. Dry 
conditions with a stronger warming trend is expected next week as 
broader high pressure builds over the area. 


&& 


Discussion...dry and warm conditions expected today ahead of a low 
pressure system moving over Nevada this morning. Some gusty winds 
this afternoon ahead of the system...and even more so Sunday as the 
low tracks farther southeast over northeast Arizona. At this 
time...the track of the system would suggest more of a wind rather 
than precipitation concern for most of Southeast Arizona Sunday 
afternoon. Current forecast appeared to handle forecast trends 
well...so no updates needed this morning. Please refer to the 
additional sections below for more details. 


&& 


Aviation...clear skies most of the day before cirrus level clouds 
moves in from the W/NW. Surface winds westerly/northwesterly 8-18 kts during the 
19z-23z period today. Aviation discussion not updated for taf 
amendments. 


&& 


Fire weather...there are no significant fire weather concerns at 
this time. Locally breezy ahead of a Pacific at times this 
afternoon...then some gusty winds are expected Sunday as a low 
pressure system moves across The Four Corners region. A few rain and 
snow showers expected with this system...mainly east of a Safford to 
Douglas line. 


&& 


Previous discussion...dry westerly flow in between features with 
shortwave ridge axis now east of US and strong trough digging into 
the Pacific northwest this morning. Still room for more warming at 
the surface today as the trend works its way down to the lower 
levels of the temperature column. 


Broader based longer wavelength ridge will help deflect the Pacific 
system just northeast of our area...tracking through the 4 corners 
region Saturday night and Sunday. For US it will enhance our winds 
to breezy levels Saturday afternoon into Sunday...with decent 
cooling Sunday as well. Best chance of showers will be north and 
northeast of our County Warning Area...with a few inches of snow possible in 
mountains of Greenlee and Graham County. 


Strong ridge building in the the first half of the new week for much 
warmer temperatures. 


&& 


Climate...with stronger high pressure forecast to build over the 
area next week...Tucson will be flirting with 80 degrees for the 
first time in 2010 by middle week. The historical average 1st date is 
February 12th. A special webpage has been posted on our website 
http://weather.Gov/Tucson 


&& 


Twc watches/warnings/advisories...none. 


$$ 


Weather.Gov/Tucson