602 
fxus65 kfgz 151731 
afdfgz 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Flagstaff Arizona 
1030 am MST Monday Mar 15 2010 


Synopsis...low pressure will gradually head south and east of 
Arizona today with high pressure building in from the west. Just 
some low clouds and a few snow flurries or sprinkles are possible 
near the New Mexico border today. High pressure will then bring warm 
temperatures and mainly clear skies through midweek. The next 
potential weather disturbance will be Thursday with breezy west to 
northwest winds and a slight chance of light precipitation. 


&& 


Discussion...upper low over south central New Mexico will continue 
to push on to the east with the low to middle level pressure gradient 
decreasing this afternoon. Northeast winds are a little stronger 
than originally indicated by guidance and forecasts. Winds and gusts 
were increased this morning to represent current conditions. Cloud 
forecast was increased for this morning as well. Clouds are forecast 
to dissipate late morning early afternoon. 


Tuesday and Wednesday...moderate upper level high pressure ridge 
builds in over the west...with lighter winds...warmer daytime 
temperatures...and dry conditions. 


Thursday and Friday...GFS and European model (ecmwf) begin developing an inter- 
mountain west low pressure trough. Moisture with this system is 
fairly limited due to the inland fetch...this could change depending 
upon the track of the upper level low pressure trough. GFS indicates 
a close low pressure system...European model (ecmwf) indicates a weaker open wave. At 
any rate...both models agree on pushing a cold front into northern 
Arizona overnight Thursday into Friday morning with the chc's of 
some light precipitation. 


Saturday through Monday...the GFS shows a secondary system 
following behind the Friday system mentioned above. The European model (ecmwf) shows 
an upper level high pressure ridge building back into the western 
states during the same time period with warming and drying 
conditions. The GFS comes into line with a ridge developing by late 
Sunday into Monday. Both the European model (ecmwf) develop breezy conditions by late 
Monday as another trough move across the northern and central 
western states. Model run-to-run consistency out through this time 
period...is low as previous model runs indicated a nearly zonal flow 
with a much weaker pressure gradient. 
&& 


Aviation...for the 12z package...strong gusty northeast surface 
winds 10 to 20 kts with gusts up to 30 kts will continue through the 
afternoon. Low cloud coverage and scattered MVFR ceilings 2-4kft above ground level across 
eastern Arizona this morning will diminish by afternoon. Aviation 
discussion not updated for amendments. 


&& 


Fgz watches/warnings/advisories...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Public..................tc 
aviation................bohlin 


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