474 
fxus64 khun 071618 aab 
afdhun 


Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Huntsville Alabama 
1016 am CST Sat Nov 7 2009 


Update... 
made minor adjustment to temperatures/dew points to follow latest 
trends...otherwise no changes. 


&& 


Discussion... 
temperatures were running a little ahead of the expected diurnal 
curve in most locations...and a little below mainly in our Tennessee 
counties. Thus...adjusted temperatures up or down a couple of degrees as 
necessary. Highs will still generally be around 70-75f...with upper 
60s in higher terrain. Winds may may gust 15-20 miles per hour at times 
this afternoon...mainly in northern portions of the area. Not expecting red 
flag criteria relative humidity values today...with increasing boundary layer 
moisture and fairly shallow mixing. 


&& 


Aviation... /from 12z tafs. No changes./ 
VFR conditions will persist through the taf period. 


&& 


Previous discussion...issued 320 am CST Sat Nov 7 2009... 
today/Sunday...combination of high pressure/very dry atmosphere 
will keep skies sunny. The high will slowly move east allowing for 
the winds to become S/southeast which will begin a slight warming trend 
f0r this weekend. 


Monday/Tuesday...a cold front approaching from the north will team up 
with an upper trough/tropical system to the south...to produce a chance 
of showers across the County Warning Area. NAM shows that the rain will likely hold 
off until Tuesday...while European model (ecmwf)/GFS has the showers beginning by 
Monday night. For now will lean towards the ECMWF/GFS. 


Instability/low level shear are very weak so does not look like any 
thunderstorms and rain will be possible during this time frame. Another thing to note 
is that the European model (ecmwf)/GFS keeps the heaviest precipitation to our south...we may 
just get some light shower activity with this next system. 


Wednesday through Friday...precipitation should end after midnight on Tuesday 
with another large area of high pressure and cooler temperatures moving 
across the County Warning Area. Kept this period dry...however another cold front will be 
heading our way by next weekend...which will increase the chance of 
precipitation over the County Warning Area. 


&& 


Hun watches/warnings/advisories... 
Alabama...none. 
Tennessee...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Discussion...kdw 
aviation...bcc 
previous discussion...07