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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama 
400 am CST Sat Nov 7 2009 


Short term...(today and tonight)upper level high pressure over the 
Florida Atlantic coast will begin to deflect a short approaching the 
Southern Plains ... surface high pressure over the Carolina 
coast. When combined with continued shortwave energy streaming east 
over the Continental U.S./California border...will stretch eastward this surface ridge. 
At the end of the short term...the center of Ida is expected to 
start approaching the northeastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula. 


With the MOS tending to be on the low side...for today's 
temperatures...have tried to round guidance down a bit...maintaining the 
trend of the past couple of days. 


/16 


Sunday through Monday night...Sunday will be a day of transition as 
deeper moisture begins to move north across the western sections and 
spreads east with time. Tropical Storm Ida will be moving north 
into the southern Gulf Sunday evening. May began to see some 
isentropic induced light rain spreading east Sunday night. An 500 mb 
trough approaching the area Monday will increase the rain and keep 
it going into Tuesday...expect mainly rain and isolated 
thunderstorms with periods of heavy rain possible. Latest thinking 
is Ida will turn northeast late Monday then southeast later on 
Tuesday as she gets picked up by the upper trough and begins the 
transition into an extra-tropical system. See the marine section for 
details concerning the coastal waters. A strong high pressure system 
across the eastern Seaboard will be slow to move east and the 
increasing pressure gradient as Ida moves north will make for some 
breezy conditions over the interior and a bit stronger winds along 
the extreme southern sections of the coastal zones. A good chance 
that a Wind Advisory will be required for the southern sections for 
Monday or Monday evening. Tide levels have been near normal the last 
two high tides and will likely be about normal for the high tide 
period late tonight. Expect to see water levels begin to increase by 
early Monday morning and a coastal Flood Watch may be required for 
the first of the week. Also expect to see some high surf conditions 
from Orange Beach east to Destin the first of the week. /11 


Long term...(tuesday through friday)...Ida should be an 
extra-tropical system and weakening as she pulls away...possibly 
back to the south the first part of the long term. Rain will be 
ending by Tuesday night. Some areas likely to see two inches of more 
over the event. Surface high pressure will remain across the 
southern states through the remainder of the forecast period. 
Temperatures a few degrees below normal until the end of the week 
when they will warm to a few degrees above normal for afternoon 
highs. /11 


&& 


Aviation...(12z issuance)vfr through the forecast...as high 
pressure maintains control over the area. Patchy fog possible later 
tonight into the morning hours...but not expecting any problems at this time. 


/16 


&& 


Marine...surface high pressure over the Carolina coast today will 
get stretched by abundant shortwave energy passing over the Continental U.S./California 
border through the weekend. Result is a general easterly. Ida is 
forecast to continue to meander north...helping to tighten the 
pressure gradient over the Gulf...with moderate flow becoming strong 
by late today/tonight...especially over the offshore zones. As Ida 
moves past Cuba and into the southern Gulf by late sudnay...a strong 
shortwave passing over the northern plains/Great Lakes region early 
in the coming week will push a front across the area middle week. This 
is later than yesterday's guidance was advertising...so the farthest 
North Point of ida's track has been shifted farther north. The 
center and sphere of influence of the 34 knots winds still remains 
well south of the forecast area. /16 


&& 


Fire weather...lowest humidity around 35 percent this afternoon 
with a northeast to east wind generally 5 to 10 miles per hour continuing. Most 
places should get a soaking rain on Monday into Monday night. /11 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Mobile 76 52 75 61 / 00 00 05 30 
Pensacola 74 56 74 62 / 00 00 05 30 
Destin 73 63 76 64 / 00 00 05 20 
Evergreen 75 43 76 54 / 00 00 05 20 
Waynesboro 76 44 74 57 / 00 00 05 20 
Camden 75 42 76 54 / 00 00 05 20 


&& 


Mob watches/warnings/advisories... 
Alabama...none. 
Florida...none. 
MS...none. 
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 am Saturday to 6 PM Tuesday for the 
following zones: coastal waters from Destin to Pensacola Florida 
out 20 nm...coastal waters from Pensacola Florida to Pascagoula 
MS out 20 nm...waters from Destin to Pensacola Florida from 20 
to 60 nm...and waters from Pensacola Florida to Pascagoula MS 
from 20 to 60 nm. 


&& 


$$