838 
fxus64 khun 220522 
afdhun 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Huntsville Alabama 
1122 PM CST Sat Nov 21 2009 


Update...for 06z tafs 


&& 


Aviation...surface low over southeastern la continues to pump moisture/precipitation 
towards the Tennessee Valley. But 00z ohx/bmx u/a soundings show atmosphere 
is still fairly dry over the County Warning Area. New model data shows best chance of 
rain will begin Sunday morning and continuing through the afternoon. Thus 
expect light rain to begin for both taf sites between 10z and 11z 
Sunday morning. The rain will begin to taper off by Sunday evening 
but IFR clouds can be expected after 01z Sunday night with light 
rain/drizzle. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 937 PM CST Sat Nov 21 2009/ 


Update...updated zones/grids to tweak temperatures up a few degrees and 
for wording changes. 


Discussion...surface low slowly moving east and was located over 
southeastern la at this time. Rain band was still moving north towards the Tennessee Valley 
but 00z u/a soundings are still fairly dry. Will raise temperatures a 
couple of degrees to account for middle/high cloud cover. Radar show 
echos moving into our southeastern zones...but probably not reaching the 
ground yet. Will go ahead and leave the probability of precipitation as is with the 
highest probability of precipitation south of the Tennessee River. 


Otherwise...no thunder expected tonight and new NAM model data 
shows that Sunday will be the best chance of rain. 


Updated grids already sent and zones will soon to follow. 


&& 


Hun watches/warnings/advisories... 
Alabama...none. 
Tennessee...none. 
&& 


$$ 




007