426 
fxus62 ktae 071419 
afdtae 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida 
919 am EST Sat Nov 7 2009 


Discussion... 
the 13 UTC regional surface analysis showed a high pressure ridge 
from Cape Hatteras NC to East Texas. Vapor imagery and upper air data 
showed ridging over the southeast. The 12 UTC ktae sounding showed 
a ten-fold increase in precipitation water over 24 hours ago...which is 
unusual given that there has been little change in the weather 
pattern. The upstream ob at kjax did not indicate such a moisture 
increase...so we think there was a bad humidity sensor on ours. 
The early morning forecast package appears to be on track and no 
major changes will be needed. 


&& 


Aviation... 
VFR conditions will generally prevail through the taf period. 
Areas of smoke during the early morning hours around ktlh have 
lifted with unrestricted visibilities now being observed. Will 
check in on the progress of the prescribed burn responsible for 
the smoke the past few nights...however pilots should anticipate 
some minor low level visible restrictions after sunset this evening if 
the burn is continued into this afternoon. High and low level 
moisture returning Sunday into Monday will result in an increase 
of high level cirrus and also the re-development of scattered afternoon 
cumulus fields. 


&& 


Tae watches/warnings/advisories... 
Alabama...none. 
Georgia...none. 
Florida...none. 
GM...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Aviation...mroczka 
rest of discussion...Fournier