946 
fxus64 kbmx 070927 
afdbmx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama 
327 am CST Sat Nov 7 2009 


Discussion... 


A nice weekend on tap for Alabama for a change with no rain expected. 
A gradual warming trend through Sunday as low level winds take on a 
more southeast component and bring in higher surface dewpoints. All 
eyes will be on the tropics as Tropical Storm Ida tracks northward 
into the Gulf of Mexico. This system will not likely directly 
impact central Alabama...but moisture from this system will 
interact with short wave trough moving towards lower Mississippi 
River valley. There continues to be some significant differences 
with regard to timing and rainfall amounts between global models 
(gfs,Gem,ecmwf) and the regional NAM model. Global models are much 
more aggressive with rainfall amounts with some fairly significant 
totals during the Monday-Tuesday time frame. Global models show a 
more progressive movement for T.S. Ida as it merges with short wave 
trough. The NAM model keeps Ida over the northern Gulf of Mexico and 
even shows it shifting westward on Tuesday. The most likely 
scenario is for Ida and its associated deeper moisture to get 
picked up by advancing short wave trough...and will keep high rain 
chances in for the Monday night and Tuesday time frame. Gradient 
winds on north side of Ida could bring breezy conditions to 
southern counties on Monday and Tuesday. 


Remnants of Ida should should pull east of Alabama Tuesday night 
with a cooler and drier air mass moving in by Wednesday and 
Thursday. Another short wave trough could pick up just enough 
moisture for some small rain chances Friday and Saturday. 


58/rose 


&& 


Aviation...06z taf discussion. 


Clear skies with VFR conds expected through the period. Winds will be 
calm overnight with roughly 5 knots or less Friday...generally 
out of the southeast. With dry conditions across the area...fog is 
not expected to develop tonight. Will keep it simple in the forecast 
with winds from the southeast through the period. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Gadsden 71 35 73 44 69 / 0 0 0 10 20 
Anniston 73 40 75 50 71 / 0 0 0 10 20 
Birmingham 73 45 75 54 71 / 0 0 0 10 20 
Tuscaloosa 75 42 75 55 71 / 0 0 0 10 30 
Calera 74 46 76 54 70 / 0 0 0 10 20 
Auburn 71 46 74 54 70 / 0 0 0 10 20 
Montgomery 75 44 76 54 73 / 0 0 0 10 30 
Troy 75 42 76 53 73 / 0 0 0 10 30 


&& 


Bmx watches/warnings/advisories...none. 


&& 


$$